Powerball Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z GFS coming in real hot. Not quite EURO extreme, but would still be a major winter storm for much of the subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 update: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 lol. 12z GFS bombs the low to ~970mb over Lake Erie... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: lol. 12z GFS bombs the low to ~970mb over Lake Erie... Correction: 958mb just north of Toronto. Basically a poor man's 1978, haha! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 i give you our world class GFS model. the worthless pos it is.. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Ohh man I bet the NE sub forum is going nuclear right now. The GFS track almost reminds me of WS Ion back in 2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 966 mb over Lake Ontario, 1043 over ND...who's ready for the hurricane-force northwesterlies? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 East coast peeps aren't gonna like this particular run lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The Canadian has trended east this morning, so the GFS and Canadian are now similar with a biggie tracking over Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: . True. American. Consistency. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: 966 mb over Lake Ontario, 1043 over ND...who's ready for the hurricane-force northwesterlies? I’d be more then happy to see that play out. I work for the power company in my area and I’d love to sit in my work truck watching winds whip the snow around 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: East coast peeps aren't gonna like this particular run lol. Why do we care so much about what the east coast snobs think? Obviously a long ways to go but more often than not when you're looking at a storm strengthening like this, you'd rather be west of guidance (Always will have ghd nightmares/flashbacks). I think this is the winter the nw trend comes back, unfortunately for peeps east of chitown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Stevo6899 said: Why do we care so much about what the east coast snobs think? Obviously a long ways to go but more often than not when you're looking at a storm strengthening like this, you'd rather be west of guidance (Always will have ghd nightmares/flashbacks). I think this is the winter the nw trend comes back, unfortunately for peeps east of chitown. More or less because when they start panty dropping, the board breaks… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Why do we care so much about what the east coast snobs think? Obviously a long ways to go but more often than not when you're looking at a storm strengthening like this, you'd rather be west of guidance (Always will have ghd nightmares/flashbacks). I think this is the winter the nw trend comes back, unfortunately for peeps east of chitown. Because this sub is much more humble and we want wealth for all lol entertaining to see the meltdowns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 hours ago, Powerball said: February 2003 might have featured blizzard conditions, but I'm pretty sure there wasn't an actual warning, at least not in the Detroit area. I think that was RogueWaves' point. Actually there was. I remember very distinctly because this went hand-in-hand with what I'm always harping on. The general public misinterprets the word blizzard. It was February 11th 2003 and the national weather service issued a blizzard warning along the Arctic front. We had 2" of snow on the ground and we got another 1.2" with the front in absolute blizzard conditions. The warning was verified but it was one of those times that the word blizzard is not to be associated with feet of snow. They get blizzard warnings in the plains with no snow falling sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually there was. I remember very distinctly because this went hand-in-hand with what I'm always harping on. The general public misinterprets the word blizzard. It was February 11th 2003 and the national weather service issued a blizzard warning along the Arctic front. We had 2" of snow on the ground and we got another 1.2" with the front in absolute blizzard conditions. The warning was verified but it was one of those times that the word blizzard is not to be associated with feet of snow. They get blizzard warnings in the plains with no snow falling sometimes. I think what he was trying to say was its been few and far between that we've had a low pressure track from our south southwest and strengthen as it heads towards say WV and PA. Usually some sort of transfer occurs and more often than not it's bombing off the coast, or upper midwest/near Chicago/west Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Good runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Good runs No rain GIFs after seeing a couple GEFS members showing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually there was. I remember very distinctly because this went hand-in-hand with what I'm always harping on. The general public misinterprets the word blizzard. It was February 11th 2003 and the national weather service issued a blizzard warning along the Arctic front. We had 2" of snow on the ground and we got another 1.2" with the front in absolute blizzard conditions. The warning was verified but it was one of those times that the word blizzard is not to be associated with feet of snow. They get blizzard warnings in the plains with no snow falling sometimes. We're talking about 2 different events. I'm thinking of February 21st-22nd, 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Midnight Thursday - Midnight Christmas Day, 12z GFS Another step in the direction of a EURO-like outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye1994 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Dayton Ohio most likely a cold rain and 2-3 wrap around inches.. always on the wrong side of the rain/snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Powerball said: We're talking about 2 different events. I'm thinking of February 21st-22nd, 2003. I loved that storm. Jackpotted here to boot. 11.5" huge drifts. Blizzard conditions. Again... I'm sure the public considered that a blizzard over February 11th. Just my opinion, blizzard is an overused word. Give me 17" of snow with 25 mph winds on February 1, 2015 over 65 mph wind gusts and blowing snow on February 11, 2003. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Regardless of the amount of snow, winds are going to make travel damn near impossible. Even 4-6” with 40-50mph winds would pull the plows from the roads. Jump that to double digits and you have a true paralyzing blizzard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Considering the extreme cold won’t the snow ratios be closer to 20:1 in some cases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, SolidIcewx said: Considering the extreme cold won’t the snow ratios be closer to 20:1 in some cases? Usually strong winds cut ratios. Those are some fun runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Usually strong winds cut ratios. Those are some fun runs though. Shatters the flakes. GHD1 was pins and needles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Usually strong winds cut ratios. Those are some fun runs though. Yep your right I’m not used to such a strong wind potential with our storms here in DTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Shatters the flakes. GHD1 was pins and needles. Which makes the amounts that accumulated with that all the more impressive. What a beast that storm was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Shatters the flakes. GHD1 was pins and needles. Not just that. The strong wind also blows and drifts the snow on the ground, compacting it. My measured ratio is always trash if the wind is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I know I speak for most here when I say I don't want to see this solution hold day after day only to have it fall apart within 2 days. Not saying it will, but I feel like that has been the trend over the years. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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