GrandmasterB Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: The hrrr has decent accums not to far from you. I’m lazy, post maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Heavy sleet shower just rolled through here. Quite heavy. But the rest of you are probably just seeing plain rain since I basically live on a mountain now at 470’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 @sauss06Daylight saving time begins on the second Sunday (after the second Saturday) of March. That would be March 12th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 After having mostly sleet for about an hour, that accumulated 0.2", it's over to plain rain now. 0.22" of liquid including melted sleet so far. Temp dropped to 35.8, then stopped and rose to 36.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Heavy sleet shower just rolled through here. Quite heavy. But the rest of you are probably just seeing plain rain since I basically live on a mountain now at 470’. Absolutely pouring here. Our mailman sat on our porch for 10 mins just to get out of the cold rain . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We continue to see snow mix in here with sleet and rain. 33. Accums around the mulch. Surprised this far west. Winter storm number 1 this week. Here’s the current initialized HRRR temps at 850mb and 925mb. 850mb 925mb Very marginal column up through 700mb but one that is a bit below freezing at the major low levels in eastern PA. The stuff that is currently pinwheeling into western PA and the Pittsburgh area is eventually the area of heavier precip that could drive a full changeover to snow for a brief period later tonight when that gets into the temporarily anchored low level cold temps east of the Alleghenies. That starts in the central counties roughly around UNV and I think that stays above Harrisburg mainly but since there’s some mixing pretty far south into the LSV we’ll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 22 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I’m lazy, post maps It pulled back a tad from the last time I looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Here’s the current initialized HRRR temps at 850mb and 925mb. 850mb 925mb Very marginal column up through 700mb but one that is a bit below freezing at the major low levels in eastern PA. The stuff that is currently pinwheeling into western PA and the Pittsburgh area is eventually the area of heavier precip that could drive a full changeover to snow for a brief period later tonight when that gets into the temporarily anchored low level cold temps east of the Alleghenies. That starts in the central counties roughly around UNV and I think that stays above Harrisburg mainly but since there’s some mixing pretty far south into the LSV we’ll have to see. I am only getting any frozen when it pours. A lot of rain except when it comes down hard. Just surprised I am getting any with it above freezing at those levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Tornado warning washington countySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 43 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Heavy sleet shower just rolled through here. Quite heavy. But the rest of you are probably just seeing plain rain since I basically live on a mountain now at 470’. Heavy snow/sleet/rain mix earlier- vehicles solidly covered and even some slush on the driveway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 50/50 snow sleet mix. Mulch covered and grass starting to cave. Would love for this to continue until that really heavy stuff out west gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Cold. Ass. Rain. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 It’s game time here with the heaviest portion of this precip area moving through the next couple hours. Doing all three things currently, moderate rain/sleet/some wet snowflakes. 37/35º, 0.40” precip for the day, 997mb pressure, max gust today 28mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Bones Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Cold. Ass. Rain. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using TapatalkSame here. Lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Flipped to heavy sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 My temp is down to 35 with 31 dew point. I’m hoping this heavier batch of precip in west central PA can deliver a coating of snow/sleet when it arrives later tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 511 cams showing least a coating on the ground and some slushy roads in and around State College down I-99 at least as far as Port Matilda and possibly Tyrone. Some sleet accum on the grass here. Trying to changeover here but surface temps still a bit warm (around 36ºF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 My Temp is down to 34 with heavy precip on my doorstep… Let’s see what type of precip…? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Surely underperforming so far in eastern PA. But that band out west sure looks healthy tracking east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Bethlehem PA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 It switched over to a very heavy mix. Grass has caved.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 We have wet snow covered windows here. East winds 30, 35 mph driving the slop into the side of the house. Still probably over half rain but the parachutes sticking to everything. Very heavy cell, with thunder and lightning, rolling through WV and Western MD. Poking up above the MD line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Temp down to 32.1 here in NW Chester County PA at 685ft asl with just some light sleet and snow falling. Our 0.3" of sleet/snow from round 1 make this our 7th winter "event" of the season.....the biggest single event...a whopping 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have wet snow covered windows here. East winds 30, 35 mph driving the slop into the side of the house. Still probably over half rain but the parachutes sticking to everything. Very heavy cell, with thunder and lightning, rolling through WV and Western MD. Poking up above the MD line. That stuff on the doorstep to R-ville looks like it means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Heavy mixed precip - guessing it's about a 75/25 rain/sleet mix. Temp is 34.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Heavy snow Bethlehem PA.That central PA band really lost its luster, assuming the coastal is forming and pulling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Mostly all snow here Atm for the first time tonight . Light coating of shit crap in grass and mulch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Rain and 34. Just reached a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Day 4 30% severe weather probability already introduced . Not looking good unless you chase for a living. Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 27, 2023 Updated: Mon Feb 27 10:02:03 UTC 2023 D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point. Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area 30 % 127,091 6,597,282 Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Tyler, TX...Tuscaloosa, AL...Longview, TX... 15 % 161,434 25,644,954 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA... D4 Thu, Mar 02, 2023 - Fri, Mar 03, 2023 D7 Sun, Mar 05, 2023 - Mon, Mar 06, 2023 D5 Fri, Mar 03, 2023 - Sat, Mar 04, 2023 D8 Mon, Mar 06, 2023 - Tue, Mar 07, 2023 D6 Sat, Mar 04, 2023 - Sun, Mar 05, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day) Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity. POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day. Forecast Discussion ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/THU... ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4... A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Available guidance is in ample general agreement with the east/northeastward-ejection of an upper trough from the southern Rockies early Thursday to the Ozarks/ArkLaTex by late Thursday night. Owing to a stalling/decaying front early this week, respectable low-level moisture will exist across much of the Deep South in advance of this approaching upper-level system and its related intense deep-layer wind field. Current thinking is that this severe potential should steadily increase across central/eastern Texas and possibly southeast Oklahoma during the day. This risk should only increase/further organize into Thursday evening across the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually the Tennessee Valley late Thursday night. ...Friday/Day 5... Severe-weather potential is expected to continue to Friday across the Southeast States including Georgia/north Florida and the Carolinas, and possibly as far north as parts of the Mid-Atlantic. This will be as the upper-level trough races northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic States. Very strong deep-layer winds will coincide with a modestly unstable warm sector ahead of a cold front and/or residual convection from Thursday night. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes could occur across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 My kiddo has surgery to get tubes in his ears on Thursday. As a result, I am off work. Thursday looks like it's going to be a James Spann/Ryan Hall day with the little one. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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