Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

The PAC has been relentless.  Until I see that ease up, our chances are very slim to almost none.  Although, some say there are signals after the 20th that it will ease up.

The west needs as much moisture as it can get, I'll gladly punt a winter if they can get some drought relief. That's a far bigger need. (That said the flooding they're experiencing is devastating). 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

52 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Amazing to me that the 3 ski resorts in this general area are still operating considering that some of the big boys in much snowier areas of the northeast and mid-Atlantic have had to shut down. 

Speaking of ski resorts, the weather cams out in the Sierra resorts are something to behold right now.

[Bubbler86]

Here is the data I was referring to last night.  The 2.9" as of 1/15 is not good but not as bad as I feared.  Here are the bottom 35 snowfall totals for 12/1 to 01/15 at MDT.  I verified 2006/2007 numbers were right as a test of the data.   The 2.9 would put MDT at 26th place (1889 missing) out of 134 possible places.  Really bad but not record setting.   2005 and 2007 both had only T at this point.   MDT went on to end up near 30" in 2005 and low 20's" in 2007. 

 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

13 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT recorded 0.9 inches of snow today, which seems reasonable and representative of the surrounding areas.

Saw that.  Quite reasonable indeed.

[Bubbler86]

Conversely, here are the top 35 on the other end of the Spectrum.  The only ones near the top of this list  in the last 30 years are 1996 and 2003 and only 5 of the 35 in that time frame.  12 of the 35 on the bottom were past 30 years.  Pretty strong indication that early winter has changed, on average, for the area.   

 

[Itstrainingtime]

30 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Speaking of ski resorts, the weather cams out in the Sierra resorts are something to behold right now.

I might be glued to one such particular resort...

 

Edit: today is the 2nd time in the past 2 weeks that they've shut down operations due to too much snow. Another 3-4' coming today, 2 more storms coming over the next week. They're going to be at about 350" or so by that point. 

I'm getting giddy. 

[Atomixwx]

The PAC has been relentless.  Until I see that ease up, our chances are very slim to almost none.  Although, some say there are signals after the 20th that it will ease up.

Thing is, has the PAC eased up in the last 5-6 years?

I know I am being a tiny bit facetious, but I really feel like there is a correlation between Fukushima Daiichi and the Pacific jet taking over lol

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

Irritating that the GFS shows only one day over 50 during the next 7 days yet we have little shot at snow.   It is simply cool to mild with rain and blah temps. 

[windycutter]

Cuts from one to another.

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

The west needs as much moisture as it can get, I'll gladly punt a winter if they can get some drought relief. That's a far bigger need. (That said the flooding they're experiencing is devastating). 

This is a good point, but how much is too much? If the excessive runoff is filling the depleted reservoirs, then it's good. If it's just eventually flowing back out into the Pacific, then it's not so beneficial. 

[paweather]

Nooner 39 and another cloudy day. Nothing much on the models. UGH!

[Itstrainingtime]

A Day In Our Thread - January 10th, 2025

2:38am: MAG writes an essay all about our slim to no chances of snow over the next 10-14 days. He also includes a pic of snow falling on snow with roads caved in his development

5:53am: Blizzard of 93 posts a graph showing that the tellies should be turning in our favor by early March "Way too early to give up on snow, LOL"

5:58am: Anotherman quotes Blizz and reminds him that it hasn't snowed more than 1" in 4 years at MDT since 2022 and that it's not too soon to give up

6:02am: Blizz quotes Anotherman and says "LOL, I know we've had a rough 4 winters, but MDT is only 94" behind the 4 year cumulative average snowfall, and if we get 4 historic storms in March, we'll be back near normal"

6:17am: Bubbler86 reports an overnight low of 31, which is his first sub-freezing temp since the winter of 2023-24. 13 people "like" his post

6:31am: Mahantango reports a low of 14. He's been below freezing nightly since September 17th. (September 16th was his last day over 90 for the season)

6:44am: Bubbler86 shares that the 6z GFS shows 384 hours of warm and rain followed by warm and dry. 

7:26am: Superstorm posts a picture from Watertown NY while traveling for work. It hasn't snowed in Watertown in 2 years

8:02am: Sauss reports that his fire call overnight was hampered by strong winds

8:08am: Canderson quotes Sauss and says that he lost another tre...sidin...shing...well, he pretty much had already lost everything that could be lost in strong winds previously

8:36am: Maytown reports a low of 35. He then mentions exactly how many hours he's been above freezing. 

9:14am: Pasnownut posts a link to some webcam in Sweden. No, it's actually in nothern PA but labeled as Sweden. Regardless of whether it's in PA or Sweden, there's still no snow to be seen

10:18am: Paweather posts that it's going to be the biggest 12z runs in a long time. I wonder about paweather.

11:22am: Bubbler86 says "The GFS is not inspiring"

12:54pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Bubbler and says "LOL, we can fluke into something as soon as 5 days from now. Patience is required"

12:55pm: I read Blizz's comments, spit out my soup, and then have 9 different office people knock on my door asking if I'm all right. A few of them ask "is it Blizz again?"

1:12pm: Voyager posts a picture of a snow plow. I get excited, until I realize it's plowing streets in Phoenix. Man, we really do suck at winter, I say to myself

1:43pm: Bubbler86 reports that there's nothing good to see on the 12z OP Euro. Somehow, the Euro control shows a swath of 2' plus of snow over the LSV

2:00pm: GrandmasterB says that hopefully, things will change for the better soon. I'm thinking, is he talking about snow chances, or Love and Marriage" 

2:19pm: Atomix simply says "It's Still Over" - which receives 17 laughing emojis

3:48pm: paweather shows the 18z NAM's depiction of a bomb cyclone just off the coast of OCMD. Unfortunately, it also shows temps in the mid 50s for all of us

5:52pm: It's assumed that the 18z GFS was ugly

7:02pm: Blizz starts a volley of 17 consecutive posts. He even pulls up a map from the 18z Euro that shows snow "close to some of us" - in reality, the closest snow on the map is in Quebec

9:14pm: Canderson offers tickets to a show in NYC that he wants to ditch due to the bomb cyclone

9:34pm: I go back and notice that this is the 46th NYC show that Canderson has tried to ditch over the past year. How many has he actually gone to, I wonder?

11:23pm: Bubbler86 reports that the GFS still sucks

11:25pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Bubbler and asks why all of the negativity? Eventually things will turn in our favor!

11:58pm: Cashtown posts...he's already getting up for the next day on the links. He shares that he's mowing the course 2 times per week. 

11:59pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Cashtown and says "LOL...what is it with some of you and your mowing. I haven't mowed in 3 months"

                                                                                                                  *And on and on we spin...*

 

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A Day In Our Thread - January 10th, 2025

2:38am: MAG writes an essay all about our slim to no chances of snow over the next 10-14 days. He also includes a pic of snow falling on snow with roads caved in his development

5:53am: Blizzard of 93 posts a graph showing that the tellies should be turning in our favor by early March "Way too early to give up on snow, LOL"

5:58am: Anotherman quotes Blizz and reminds him that it hasn't snowed more than 1" at MDT since 2022 and that it's not too soon to give up

6:02am: Blizz quotes Anotherman and says "LOL, I know we've had a rough 4 winters, but MDT is only 94" behind the 4 year cumulative average snowfall, and if we get 4 historic storms in March, we'll be back near normal"

6:17am: Bubbler86 reports an overnight low of 31, which is his first sub-freezing temp since the winter of 2023-24. 13 people "like" his post

6:31am: Mahantango reports a low of 14. He's been below freezing nightly since September 17th. (September 16th was his last day over 90 for the season)

6:44am: Bubbler86 shares that the 6z GFS shows 384 hours of warm and rain followed by warm and dry. 

7:26am: Superstorm posts a picture from Watertown NY while traveling for work. It hasn't snowed in Watertown in 2 years

8:02am: Sauss reports that his fire call overnight was hampered by strong winds

8:08am: Canderson quotes Sauss and says that he lost another tre...sidin...shing...well, he pretty much had already lost everything that could be lost in strong winds previously

8:36am: Maytown reports a low of 35. He then mentions exactly how many hours he's been above freezing. 

9:14am: Pasnownut posts a link to some webcam in Sweden. No, it's actually in nothern PA but labeled as Sweden. Regardless of whether it's in PA or Sweden, there's still no snow to be seen

10:18am: Paweather posts that it's going to be the biggest 12z runs in a long time. I wonder about paweather.

11:22am: Bubbler86 says "The GFS is not inspiring"

12:54pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Bubbler and says "LOL, we can fluke into something as soon as 5 days from now. Patience is required"

12:55pm: I read Blizz's comments, spit out my soup, and then have 9 different office people knock on my door asking if I'm all right. A few of them ask "is it Blizz again?"

1:12pm: Voyager posts a picture of a snow plow. I get excited, until I realize it's plowing streets in Phoenix. Man, we really do suck at winter, I say to myself

1:43pm: Bubbler86 reports that there's nothing good to see on the 12z Euro. Somehow, the Euro control shows a swath of 2' plus of snow over the LSV

2:00pm: GrandmasterB says that hopefully, things will change for the better soon. I'm thinking, is he talking about snow chances, or Love and Marriage" 

2:19pm: Atomix simply says "It's Still Over" - which receives 17 laughing emojis

3:48pm: paweather shows the 18z NAM's depiction of a bomb cyclone just off the coast of OCMD. Unfortunately, it also shows temps in the mid 50s for all of us

5:52pm: It's assumed that the 18z GFS was ugly

7:02pm: Blizz starts a volley of 17 consecutive posts. He even pulls up a map from the 18z Euro that shows snow "close to some of us" - in reality, the closest snow on the map is in Quebec

9:14pm: Canderson offers tickets to a show in NYC that he wants to ditch due to the bomb cyclone

9:34pm: I go back and notice that this is the 46th NYC show that Canderson has tried to ditch over the past year. How many has he actually gone to, I wonder?

11:23pm: Bubbler86 reports that the GFS still sucks

11:25pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Bubbler and asks why all of the negativity? Eventually things will turn in our favor!

11:58pm: Cashtown posts...he's already getting up for the next day on the links. He shares that he's mowing the course 2 times per week. 

11:59pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Cashtown and says "LOL...what is it with some of you and your mowing. I haven't mowed in 3 months"

                                                                                                                  *And on and on we spin...*

 

Hall of Fame post 

[Anduril]

Epic

[pasnownut]

If the GEPS/GEFS have a clue, it looks like we are (and as always) 10-11 days away from better times.  

Only reason I post is that the changes are appreciable on the PAC side, as ridging is popping and much better placed for downstream corrections here in the east.  Looking at other indicies this may work out a bit better than what weve seen....Just hoping that it has some staying power.

MJO looks to traverse 1 and head strongly into 2 and I'm hoping that influence is notable enough to help.  Only concern is that its headed for 3 which is not a good look for us, but thats to far out for me to fret over, and can adjust as we get down the road a bit (for better or for worse).  I'll just take a favorable window and hit n hope for now.

 

and if not, were always 10 days away from a better looking pattern

[Atomixwx]

I'm just saying, LOL, posts like the daily breakdown are basically the long snap that comes with a punt.

The Punt: A step-by-step guide:

1. Poster(s) continuing to hang onto the 240 hour run and/or the ten-day to keep hopes alive while pushing back the goalposts by saying, "This may not happen and if not, it may look better 10 days after that." This is third down not converting. It's now 4th and 7 on the opponents 40 yard line.

2. I somehow try to cause the defense to jump offside while trying to make this about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant meltdown 11 years ago. Delay of game penalty assessed

3. The special teams unit comes out by various commentary about the life of La Niña.

4. "This is how the members of this forum act" and we hope the long snapper doesn't bop himself in the nuts trying to send the ball back.

5. Pictures of the Blizzard(s) of 1993, 1996, or 2010.

Officials timeout.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I'm just saying, LOL, posts like the daily breakdown are basically the long snap that comes with a punt.

The Punt: A step-by-step guide:

1. Poster(s) continuing to hang onto the 240 hour run and/or the ten-day to keep hopes alive while pushing back the goalposts by saying, "This may not happen and if not, it may look better 10 days after that." This is third down not converting. It's now 4th and 7 on the opponents 40 yard line.

2. I somehow try to cause the defense to jump offside while trying to make this about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant meltdown 11 years ago. Delay of game penalty assessed

3. The special teams unit comes out by various commentary about the life of La Niña.

4. "This is how the members of this forum act" and we hope the long snapper doesn't bop himself in the nuts trying to send the ball back.

5. Pictures of the Blizzard(s) of 1993, 1996, or 2010.

Officials timeout.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

shall we stop talking about the weather till you like what you see........

 

crickets.....

 

 

 

and wierd stuff

 

 

 

and more crickets.

 

 

punts ball

 

not sure anyones hangin onto anything post 10 day,but for those of us that take the time to share/offer up thoughts w/ info and reasoning...I'm just a tad confused at how this is wrong on a weather board?  You wanna chime in and chirp about what you see (scared to ask sorta....) thats just fine.  Were all ears.  Otherwise......stay on sidelines n keep bitchin at the ref for the bad calls....thats always easier and more fun.

[GrandmasterB]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A Day In Our Thread - January 10th, 2025

2:38am: MAG writes an essay all about our slim to no chances of snow over the next 10-14 days. He also includes a pic of snow falling on snow with roads caved in his development                                              

 

OMG!! This post is insane. Unbelievable work. Almost makes up for the zero snow this year. (Almost)

[anotherman]

This guy is such a clown, and this is flat out wrong!

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

OMG!! This post is insane. Unbelievable work. Almost makes up for the zero snow this year. (Almost)

not sure it makes up for no snow, but a good chuckle is always a good thing....even if poor blizz bears the brunt.  

[GrandmasterB]

Gotta admit that I appreciate reading whatever analysis people post on here. Even if the gist is “sucky for next 2 weeks” or “another pants kick on the over night models”.  This is a weather forum and makes me appreciate when times are good and it’s a place to commiserate when they aren’t! 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Gotta admit that I appreciate reading whatever analysis people post on here. Even if the gist is “sucky for next 2 weeks” or “another pants kick on the over night models”.  This is a weather forum and makes me appreciate when times are good and it’s a place to commiserate when they aren’t! 

The 12Z GFS shows 384 hours of warm and wet. 

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

This guy is such a clown, and this is flat out wrong!

Speaking of LOL's, I always find it funny how people act like they "knew this was coming", especially when they dont go out on limbs and share that early on. For every poster that thought this was a ratter en route, one can easily find another poster that suggests "not so fast".  It surely could have gone better than it has....so far. 

From what I've seen and read, many knew it wasnt a great look, but not a ratter either, and while we have lacked in the snow dept, we've had cool/cold periods to make it feel normalish. 

Yes, we have been on the wrong side, but reasonably close on a couple events that could have yielded a notably different tone in here...I wish we had other LR posters in here, but as I check into NE thread every month or so - and on rare occasion the MA thread, enough seem to share similar viewpoints, that there was no overwhelming consensus on this being a dumpster fire....even though it bye an large has been for many in the LSV. 

Some need to stop acting like "they" knew this.  If they did, they shoulda spared all of us the misery of thinking otherwise.  It isnt that easy, and we've all read from the "good ones" that also were wrong once in a while.  It happens.  

 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Gotta admit that I appreciate reading whatever analysis people post on here. Even if the gist is “sucky for next 2 weeks” or “another pants kick on the over night models”.  This is a weather forum and makes me appreciate when times are good and it’s a place to commiserate when they aren’t! 

well thats what the board is here for....glad you enjoy it. 

Some of us actually make an effort to add value to it...even when it doesnt work out.  

 

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A Day In Our Thread - January 10th, 2025

2:38am: MAG writes an essay all about our slim to no chances of snow over the next 10-14 days. He also includes a pic of snow falling on snow with roads caved in his development

5:53am: Blizzard of 93 posts a graph showing that the tellies should be turning in our favor by early March "Way too early to give up on snow, LOL"

5:58am: Anotherman quotes Blizz and reminds him that it hasn't snowed more than 1" in 4 years at MDT since 2022 and that it's not too soon to give up

6:02am: Blizz quotes Anotherman and says "LOL, I know we've had a rough 4 winters, but MDT is only 94" behind the 4 year cumulative average snowfall, and if we get 4 historic storms in March, we'll be back near normal"

6:17am: Bubbler86 reports an overnight low of 31, which is his first sub-freezing temp since the winter of 2023-24. 13 people "like" his post

6:31am: Mahantango reports a low of 14. He's been below freezing nightly since September 17th. (September 16th was his last day over 90 for the season)

6:44am: Bubbler86 shares that the 6z GFS shows 384 hours of warm and rain followed by warm and dry. 

7:26am: Superstorm posts a picture from Watertown NY while traveling for work. It hasn't snowed in Watertown in 2 years

8:02am: Sauss reports that his fire call overnight was hampered by strong winds

8:08am: Canderson quotes Sauss and says that he lost another tre...sidin...shing...well, he pretty much had already lost everything that could be lost in strong winds previously

8:36am: Maytown reports a low of 35. He then mentions exactly how many hours he's been above freezing. 

9:14am: Pasnownut posts a link to some webcam in Sweden. No, it's actually in nothern PA but labeled as Sweden. Regardless of whether it's in PA or Sweden, there's still no snow to be seen

10:18am: Paweather posts that it's going to be the biggest 12z runs in a long time. I wonder about paweather.

11:22am: Bubbler86 says "The GFS is not inspiring"

12:54pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Bubbler and says "LOL, we can fluke into something as soon as 5 days from now. Patience is required"

12:55pm: I read Blizz's comments, spit out my soup, and then have 9 different office people knock on my door asking if I'm all right. A few of them ask "is it Blizz again?"

1:12pm: Voyager posts a picture of a snow plow. I get excited, until I realize it's plowing streets in Phoenix. Man, we really do suck at winter, I say to myself

1:43pm: Bubbler86 reports that there's nothing good to see on the 12z OP Euro. Somehow, the Euro control shows a swath of 2' plus of snow over the LSV

2:00pm: GrandmasterB says that hopefully, things will change for the better soon. I'm thinking, is he talking about snow chances, or Love and Marriage" 

2:19pm: Atomix simply says "It's Still Over" - which receives 17 laughing emojis

3:48pm: paweather shows the 18z NAM's depiction of a bomb cyclone just off the coast of OCMD. Unfortunately, it also shows temps in the mid 50s for all of us

5:52pm: It's assumed that the 18z GFS was ugly

7:02pm: Blizz starts a volley of 17 consecutive posts. He even pulls up a map from the 18z Euro that shows snow "close to some of us" - in reality, the closest snow on the map is in Quebec

9:14pm: Canderson offers tickets to a show in NYC that he wants to ditch due to the bomb cyclone

9:34pm: I go back and notice that this is the 46th NYC show that Canderson has tried to ditch over the past year. How many has he actually gone to, I wonder?

11:23pm: Bubbler86 reports that the GFS still sucks

11:25pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Bubbler and asks why all of the negativity? Eventually things will turn in our favor!

11:58pm: Cashtown posts...he's already getting up for the next day on the links. He shares that he's mowing the course 2 times per week. 

11:59pm: Blizzard of 93 quotes Cashtown and says "LOL...what is it with some of you and your mowing. I haven't mowed in 3 months"

                                                                                                                  *And on and on we spin...*

 

Been spinning my wheels on how to say this but this masterpiece is lacking a crucial word....Nooner. 

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Been spinning my wheels on how to say this but this masterpiece is lacking a crucial word....Nooner. 

In hindsight:

• Missed the daily nooner parade - I probably shouldn't have penned this during a, well...nooner
• Should have added some @Mount Joy Snowman national high and low data

Always a challenge to incorporate those who heavily contribute, keep it funny without being hurtful, and capture the essence of who we are. Honestly, I probably should have given this more than the 10 minutes it took me to write. I had no intention of doing this today, impulsively it came to me and I went with it within the time I had. 

@Blizzard of 93 you were the one who specifically asked for this a few weeks ago. I sincerely hope you understand that my comments were 100% intended for fun. You are an optimist extraordinaire - and there's nothing wrong with that at all.  

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In hindsight:

• Missed the daily nooner parade - I probably shouldn't have penned this during a, well...nooner
• Should have added some @Mount Joy Snowman national high and low data

Always a challenge to incorporate those who heavily contribute, keep it funny without being hurtful, and capture the essence of who we are. Honestly, I probably should have given this more than the 10 minutes it took me to write. I had no intention of doing this today, impulsively it came to me and I went with it within the time I had. 

@Blizzard of 93 you were the one who specifically asked for this a few weeks ago. I sincerely hope you understand that my comments were 100% intended for fun. You are an optimist extraordinaire - and there's nothing wrong with that at all.  

Yea, the lack of Peter Sinks is indeed another one.  LOL.  

[Itstrainingtime]

My inspiration for "Day In The Life" was actually borrowed from Easternuswx - in the NYC thread there was a poster named Earthlight who used to do one of these for his forum. I remember looking forward to each annual installment and literally crying with laughter. 

Then again - he had a lot of people to use as his targets up in that area.  

[MAG5035]

7 hours ago, anotherman said:

This guy is such a clown, and this is flat out wrong!

I’ll agree with the first sentence of that, the last couple weeks haven’t exactly been a standard boilerplate Nina in the  west.

As for the rest of that, there’s likely a Nino coming next winter but obviously predicting eventual magnitude/impacts in the eastern US at this point is a “hot” take at best at a point in the current winter where I’d likely consider saying something like the rest of the winter will definitely be a blowtorch in the eastern US a hot take also. Also, I dunno where he’s from or when deer season is there but my first year hunting when I turned 12 was Fall 1998 and it still is the warmest weather I’ve ever hunted in for rifle season. That was the December like the whole first week was in the 70s. So problem with his anecdote was he was probably talking December 98, which was during the start of the big Nina period of that timeframe lol. If he’s talking Nov/Dec 97 (during the actual super nino period) I dunno where he’d be hunting deer in shorts at. 

 

[Bubbler86]

The fix for all that is to not hunt deer.    LOL