rclab Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: And he’s a meanie with the weenie No wonder he never changes his avatar. As always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Rjay getting old. He doesn't remember anything Show me where I canceled winter. It should be easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: Show me where I canceled winter. It should be easy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: Show me where I canceled winter. It should be easy. I asked you if you think winter is over and you said yes . Just admit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I asked you if you think winter is over and you said yes . Just admit it Where???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 Are you ok Ant? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 What a disaster of a winter. I’m not saying I’m going to starve because it hasn’t snowed but for those of us that have financial ties to snow this hurts. Snow removal = overtime for thousands of workers and business for many small businesses. You really can’t rely on it like you could in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What a disaster of a winter. I’m not saying I’m going to starve because it hasn’t snowed but for those of us that have financial ties to snow this hurts. Snow removal = overtime for thousands of workers and business for many small businesses. You really can’t rely on it like you could in the past. It's just like with the Indigenous people I watched in a documentary, they can't rely on salmon fishing like they used to for thousands of years, because the fish are disappearing in the wild. They have to move on to other ways of sustaining themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: It's just like with the Indigenous people I watched in a documentary, they can't rely on salmon fishing like they used to for thousands of years, because the fish are disappearing in the wild. They have to move on to other ways of sustaining themselves A good snowy winter could mean doubling my annual salary in overtime. That’s a serious hit. Luckily for me I have other projects I work on to supplement when it isn’t going to snow. I have friends who do snow removal privately and the only way to make that work anymore is to sign contracts ahead of time. That, then comes with the risk we have a blockbuster winter. Which in my opinion will still happen moving forward. Feast or famine is the new snow reality in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: A good snowy winter could mean doubling my annual salary in overtime. That’s a serious hit. Luckily for me I have other projects I work on to supplement when it isn’t going to snow. I have friends who do snow removal privately and the only way to make that work anymore is to sign contracts ahead of time. That, then comes with the risk we have a blockbuster winter. Which in my opinion will still happen moving forward. Feast or famine is the new snow reality in our area. Just based on climo I can't imagine signing a contract...pay by the storm around here. Contract stuff is for mountain climates IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 On 1/18/2023 at 5:58 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: A good snowy winter could mean doubling my annual salary in overtime. That’s a serious hit. Luckily for me I have other projects I work on to supplement when it isn’t going to snow. I have friends who do snow removal privately and the only way to make that work anymore is to sign contracts ahead of time. That, then comes with the risk we have a blockbuster winter. Which in my opinion will still happen moving forward. Feast or famine is the new snow reality in our area. Yup feast or famine, and it'll probably be either next year or the year after, seeing what usually happens after really bad winters like this one. After 2001-02 we had 2002-03 (need a nice strong el nino) and after 2011-12 we had an average winter in 2012-13 and then a couple of blockbusters after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yup feast or famine, and it'll probably be either next year or the year after, seeing what usually happens after really bad winters like this one. After 2001-02 we had 2002-03 (need a nice strong el nino) and after 2011-12 we had an average winter in 2012-13 and then a couple of blockbusters after that. A strong nino actually isn’t what you want. 82/83 and 15/16 lucked out with one big storm. 97/98 is more typical of what to expect with a strong nino. What you want is a weak to moderate nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 A strong nino actually isn’t what you want. 82/83 and 15/16 lucked out with one big storm. 97/98 is more typical of what to expect with a strong nino. What you want is a weak to moderate nino. One of my nerd friends shared this with me, for reference.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 9:07 PM, Rjay said: Are you ok Ant? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 @bluewave Is everything ok? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 47 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: LOL! Boomer humor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, Nibor said: Boomer humor... Poor Winterwarlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 37 minutes ago, Nibor said: Boomer humor... i thought i was the only one under 30 on this thing jk guys i like it here dont ban me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yup feast or famine, and it'll probably be either next year or the year after, seeing what usually happens after really bad winters like this one. After 2001-02 we had 2002-03 (need a nice strong el nino) and after 2011-12 we had an average winter in 2012-13 and then a couple of blockbusters after that. I've wondered about the whole feast or famine thing here on LI. Anecdotally, at least, it seemed true. I started messing with some data I scrounged from a newsday web page showing annual snowfall totals since the 1950s. I tried standard deviation first from 1950-1985, then 1986-2020, that showed a larger SD for the latter, but it was tough to visualize. Then I tried taking the range of min to max annual snowfall for each decade. That had surprising results, with the only real outlier being the 1980s. Lastly, I threw out the min and max for each decade, figuring you'll have an anomaly on each end every decade, and then repeated the exercise. I think this captures best what LibertyBell describes: I realize everything about this approach is probably an abomination to any scientist on here, but I figured what the heck, it's so slow right now I'll post it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I need the weather on the 26th and 30th to be nice enough for me to fly out and then back in to LGA. *crosses fingers* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Yeah. We're gonna be cloudy cool and miserable come June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I did not have thunderstorms in NYC on January 19th on my scorecard. Yet here we are. Some nice booming thunder too boot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 hours ago, Rtd208 said: LOL! Minus being overweight, pretty much me… Historically it was never a 100% chance you were going to get a ton of overtime ever winter, but even the 80s had several events requiring snow removal each winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Boomer humor... My grandfather had the heart of a lion and a lifetime ban from the zoo.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 12 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I've wondered about the whole feast or famine thing here on LI. Anecdotally, at least, it seemed true. I started messing with some data I scrounged from a newsday web page showing annual snowfall totals since the 1950s. I tried standard deviation first from 1950-1985, then 1986-2020, that showed a larger SD for the latter, but it was tough to visualize. Then I tried taking the range of min to max annual snowfall for each decade. That had surprising results, with the only real outlier being the 1980s. Lastly, I threw out the min and max for each decade, figuring you'll have an anomaly on each end every decade, and then repeated the exercise. I think this captures best what LibertyBell describes: I realize everything about this approach is probably an abomination to any scientist on here, but I figured what the heck, it's so slow right now I'll post it. This is absolutely fascinating! Just out of sheer curiosity, can you do the average SD per decade? I bet that would have some interesting results too. It could be a per 30 year average SD too, but I'd also like to see a per decade approach like you did above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: A strong nino actually isn’t what you want. 82/83 and 15/16 lucked out with one big storm. 97/98 is more typical of what to expect with a strong nino. What you want is a weak to moderate nino. But we got 2/3 really good storms, so I'm not sure why 82-83 and 15-16 would be bad luck and not 97-98? Those were two amazing HECS with the south shore getting the most snow of all in those events so I'd gamble on that. Also there were other borderline strong el ninos too, like 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10, that were also very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: A strong nino actually isn’t what you want. 82/83 and 15/16 lucked out with one big storm. 97/98 is more typical of what to expect with a strong nino. What you want is a weak to moderate nino. weak el nino is better for new england, we want a moderate and preferably a high end moderate to borderline strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 19 hours ago, North and West said: One of my nerd friends shared this with me, for reference. . Ask him to do one for la ninas and for la ninas after el ninos please lol...I think we have time before our next (errr I mean first) snowstorm, don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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