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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

As I have said for the past month, ensembles have extremely low skill past 10 days and should not be used to forecast.  The current pattern makes it even more difficult to use them.

Look at the EPS forecast from 0z for +84:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022120500/eps_z500a_namer_15.png

Compared to the EPS forecast for the same period but + 192 + 252

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022113012/eps_z500a_namer_33.png

+ 252

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022112800/eps_z500a_namer_43.png

The PV is not caught under the block as forecasted but instead is heading into BC with a much stronger -PNA.  Also the ridging is connected from the SE into Greenland resulting in a warm cutter pattern.  Exactly as I warned a few weeks ago, you need the pattern shifts to move forward in time and just because the NAO is negative, doesn't mean much if a pacific airmass is trapped under the block, even for NNE.

Storms cannot cut when there’s blocking this strong, the problem is the airmass sucks, and the ocean is still really warm. The earth is warmer than it used to be so more has to go right. Even a perfect track isn’t enough with the lack of cold, the low needed to deepen a lot and create its own cold air. Ridging doesn’t connect from the SE to Greenland, the block suppresses the SE ridge. NNE will still probably get lots of snow, but for the rest of us yeah the epic pattern looks like it’s going to be delayed. Honestly for those of us not in NNE the delay is good, because it means the window for the epic period is closer to peak climo when it comes. That said, the 13th threat hasn’t gone anywhere. The 10th is probably cooked though.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So we’ve got the EPS absolutely gorgeous and the other extreme we’ve got the GFS, absolutely atrocious

makin progress

The GFS Op continues to frequently show a PNA that is like -5, albeit this run it did not, it found a new way in the 11-15 to mess stuff up as was said above the Pac was not that bad although you get the impression D14-16 if it ran to D20 it would blast that ridge across the entire US and go zonal

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12 minutes ago, George001 said:

Storms cannot cut when there’s blocking this strong, the problem is the airmass sucks, and the ocean is still really warm. The earth is warmer than it used to be so more has to go right. Even a perfect track isn’t enough with the lack of cold, the low needed to deepen a lot and create its own cold air. Ridging doesn’t connect from the SE to Greenland, the block suppresses the SE ridge. NNE will still probably get lots of snow, but for the rest of us yeah the epic pattern looks like it’s going to be delayed. Honestly for those of us not in NNE the delay is good, because it means the window for the epic period is closer to peak climo when it comes. That said, the 13th threat hasn’t gone anywhere. The 10th is probably cooked though.

Gfs upgrade really did wonders 

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So with the ECM and the GFS being in completely different camps, who do we trust and who do we lean towards. Did GFS did not do a good job with the upcoming storm for this weekend. It had it far north and now it's making its way down to meet the ECM and other guidance models. In the long run who has done a better job with the pattern, that's the question.

Are we going to melt, or are we going to freeze?

Can't wait to see what happens haha

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS suite has been downright bizarre in how it handles the NAO block the past few runs. Def does not match the GEPS/EPS evolution. It's not even a block at all after about day 4-5.

there's a trough over Greenland from days 11-16... there is no damn way given how these patterns should progress

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1624000.thumb.png.a453e8a08ee90f02f8f36ee2f1f46a74.png

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there's a trough over Greenland from days 11-16... there is no damn way given how these patterns should progress

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1624000.thumb.png.a453e8a08ee90f02f8f36ee2f1f46a74.png

All the other guidance keep the block and then retrograde it back into Davis Strait/Baffin area and re-strengthen it temporarily as the Dec 9-11 ridging to the north of that system feeds into it.....then it spins in the west-based region slowly decaying.

GFS just disintegrates the block and never rebuilds it after Dec 10th and instead the heights fall over Greeland/Baffin and a monster ridge builds in the east.

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8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So with the ECM and the GFS being in completely different camps, who do we trust and who do we lean towards. Did GFS did not do a good job with the upcoming storm for this weekend. It had it far north and now it's making its way down to meet the ECM and other guidance models. In the long run who has done a better job with the pattern, that's the question.

Are we going to melt, or are we going to freeze?

Can't wait to see what happens haha

I’d lean towards the European guidance because it has been more consistent. The GFS is completely lost.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What are your thoughts , you have been quiet as a field mouse . You confident in a good pattern upcoming sir 

I've honestly been out of the loop with the LR for awhile...been busy with some other things. I just check in to get an idea of what's going on from the big dawgs in here. I've been peeking more myself the past few days though and it does look good, but I don't have much to add beyond what others have said.

I don't usually invest too much emotionally in LR progs since they can change quite a bit come verification time. These epic d15 -NAO blocks have been fool's gold it seems during winter so I usually keep my guard up with anything in the N ATL.

Basically I don't stress too much about the extended beyond d5-7. I like to roll with whatever comes and just fan the stressful flames from weenies time to time. Get the favorable pattern into that 120-144 window and I'll start paying more attention to the chances.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All the other guidance keep the block and then retrograde it back into Davis Strait/Baffin area and re-strengthen it temporarily as the Dec 9-11 ridging to the north of that system feeds into it.....then it spins in the west-based region slowly decaying.

GFS just disintegrates the block and never rebuilds it after Dec 10th and instead the heights fall over Greeland/Baffin and a monster ridge builds in the east.

the former just makes more sense given the wave breaking in the Atlantic. these kinds of blocks don't just fall apart in a matter of days and get replaced by a trough. the evolution on the Canadian looks a lot more meteorologically correct

all of the deepening troughs positively feed back and advect warm air into the Davis Strait, which is what the Canadian does. the GFS progresses the block E verbatim and it rapidly dissipates. it's just a weird evolution that doesn't look right and feeds into the GFS's progressive bias

gem-all-nhemi-z500_anom-1670241600-1670673600-1671105600-10-1.thumb.gif.3743505552fea3ca97a0eb995d50c06e.gif

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1670241600-1670673600-1671278400-10-1.thumb.gif.005257e72b50bb135208c0f5367a0b42.gif

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3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

That was a 2015-2016 GFS run for the ski areas.  It's one op run, but verbatim, there aren't even many snowmaking windows in that 360.  Hard not to at least be concerned for December Skiing.

Easy just ignore the GFS because it sucks, it has a super nino pattern despite it being a moderate La Niña. 

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On 11/28/2022 at 4:16 PM, forkyfork said:

you should all be excited 

 

On 11/28/2022 at 4:22 PM, forkyfork said:

that is a massive block

 

On 11/28/2022 at 4:27 PM, forkyfork said:

that block is perfection and there are people worried. lol

 

On 11/28/2022 at 4:44 PM, Whineminster said:

If Forkalork is on board, that means we all should be on board. 

 

On 11/28/2022 at 4:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It means it may not happen if history is any lesson 

Bumps 

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