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nicole's remnants thread


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20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left.

I think this ends up

being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal. 

Alot of the leaves are gone as well which will help the case too

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Where I lived in Lindenhurst you would probably need gusts approaching 80 mph to get widespread power outages (Sandy, Isaias, a couple of severe t-storms a few years back). While there are still a decent amount of tree’s left, the mass majority of weaker trees that would cause issues at lower wind speeds are gone now.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left.

I think this ends up

being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal. 

How many dead trees are around from the summer drought though?

I do agree that it looks like a run of the mill windy/showery event for most of us. The heavy rain will mostly be over PA and maybe W NJ. If anything models keep going west with the low track. 

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs continues to trend west

 

trend-gfs-2022110812-f114.qpf_acc.us_ne.gif

At this point I wouldn’t expect more than showery weather for most of us and gusty winds to 50 mph or so. On the east side of these storms some might just have a shower or two and that’s it. Maybe we can luck out and we get a squall line in the instability as the strong cold front passes by. 

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The more west solutions means it's phasing with the front instead of getting kicked by it.

I actually prefer it over plain rain. At least we might get some severe weather & strong gusts out of it. 

GFS has also been trending with developing a quick coastal on Sunday with leftover baroclinic energy and a tilting trough. If it were just a couple weeks later I'd think we might get some snow out of it. 

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At this point I wouldn’t expect more than showery weather for most of us and gusty winds to 50 mph or so. On the east side of these storms some might just have a shower or two and that’s it. Maybe we can luck out and we get a squall line in the instability as the strong cold front passes by. 

rather be on east side 

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

At this rate it's going to Cleveland and we might not get anything

It’s phasing into a deep trough and it’ll be a strong cold front passing through so hopefully it does get interesting beyond a windy day for a while. Could be some good T-storm activity ahead of the front, but it could just be the windy/showery day too. We’ll just have to see. 

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The more west solutions means it's phasing with the front instead of getting kicked by it.

I actually prefer it over plain rain. At least we might get some severe weather & strong gusts out of it. 

GFS has also been trending with developing a quick coastal on Sunday with leftover baroclinic energy and a tilting trough. If it were just a couple weeks later I'd think we might get some snow out of it. 

The timing of this is friday night overnight though. So if we do get any strong t-storms out of it, it will likely be when we're sleeping. This west trend also means we probably won't get big rains. Right now it doesn't appear that this is much to look forward to. 

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6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

How many dead trees are around from the summer drought though?

I do agree that it looks like a run of the mill windy/showery event for most of us. The heavy rain will mostly be over PA and maybe W NJ. If anything models keep going west with the low track. 

The dead trees will not be an issue for a couple years until they start to rot. We actually need the rain again. The growing season is still in full swing here on the uws and I have plants dying do to lack of water again but can’t bring myself to water 

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18 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Might not get much rain from this after all 

The east side of these systems always underperform on rain at this latitude. Best we can hope for IMO is a line of T-storms to come through with the front, that seems to be what much of our rain is on the models. But if that doesn't materialize some of us may see only a few brief showers. Isaias/Fay/Ida etc had very little rain east of the track. As bad as Sandy was, I think LI had under an inch of rain when predictions were for 3-6". 

The east side does often overperform on the wind but it doesn't look to be at a level that would be worse than a nuisance. 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs has trended wetter for Friday afternoon

 

 

qpf_acc.us_ne (18).png

NAM and Euro aren't showing as much as GFS, but still a decent amount of rain. Like I said a half inch to inch looks like a good forecast right now. Also right now the models are showing most of our rain coming from the first batch friday afternoon. They're not really showing a line of strong storms with the front friday night overnight anymore. Overall looking like a boring event, but at least a moderate amount of rain. 

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