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November 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Most of the snow was scorched by sun angle yesterday. A few pockets still out there I guess.

NWS gives us a shot at 1-2” tonight but temps later today don’t look great for accumulation IMO. If only it was here *now* since we are struggling to get to 20 at the moment!

Also, just laughing at this week’s temp forecast. Not supposed to exceed the freezing mark Friday. And this seems just miserable for most folks this time of year..

Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
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1 hour ago, Baum said:

AFD:FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT  
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE (NO MATERIAL CHANGE   
FROM THE DAY SHIFT'S FORECAST), BUT SWATHS OF 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS  
APPEAR IN THE CARDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS ONCE YOU GET   
MORE THAN 20-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE MILD LAKE INFLUENCE

Zone Forecast:TONIGHT  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR  
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND  
5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.    
TUESDAY  
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE  
MID 30S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
90 PERCENT.    
TUESDAY NIGHT  
CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE  
EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

Time to put distance vs Alek in snow totals

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4 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Most of the snow was scorched by sun angle yesterday. A few pockets still out there I guess.

NWS gives us a shot at 1-2” tonight but temps later today don’t look great for accumulation IMO. If only it was here *now* since we are struggling to get to 20 at the moment!

Also, just laughing at this week’s temp forecast. Not supposed to exceed the freezing mark Friday. And this seems just miserable for most folks this time of year..

Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

This could be the earliest reference to sun angle on record. If your location can’t handle a late January sun angle, you’re pretty much screwed. lol

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52 minutes ago, roardog said:

This could be the earliest reference to sun angle on record. If your location can’t handle a late January sun angle, you’re pretty much screwed. lol

For legal purposes, that was mostly a joke.

The Mid-Atlantic forum is constantly making jokes about sun angle eating up their snowcover.

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Down to 14 last night with scattered snow showers hanging around.  Have picked up 14" at my house the past few days.

Lakes are beginning to freeze as deep winter takes hold here in the north.

Deer Lake north of Negaunee this morning.

315472796_10231578857600682_2217232881065067621_n.thumb.jpg.fb3d0c96a0f3128c5a4b7eeeb610f3c6.jpg

 

 

Beautiful picture! Lakes going to be firing later this week! Globals are showing 55" at 1:10 ratio around here, never seen anything like it. Do you guys still have a lake effect thread going like the last few years? 

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For Chicago, this will be the first time since 2014 that the first measurable snow of the season comes less than 1 week after having a high of 70+

10/27/2014:  high 77

10/31/2014:  0.1"

 

11/10/2022:  high 76

11/15/2022:  tbd

 

Fwiw, if 1" or more occurs, it would be the first time since October 1989 that the first measurable snow of 1"+ happened less than a week after having a high of 70+

 

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2” here today with 3-4” reports across northern metro. Certainly caught a lot of people off guard as the number of spin outs and crashes was substantial.  I guess I could put this in the thread for the 11/15-16 event but since we have another 2-4” forecasted tomorrow night I’ll save that for there. 

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Thanks!

That would be an insane amount of snow at that ratio.  There'd be some roof issues, I'm sure.  I'm not even sure I'd be down for that.

I don't think we've had a LE thread in this sub for a couple seasons.  Josh in Gaylord doesn't post much anymore, and tbh, there's only a handful here that would post so I just post my obs in the monthly threads.  

Hey guys still around now and then been pretty busy. Hope to be on here more this winter, that also depends on how arrive our winter unfolds past few years hasn't been worth the effort. This coming weekend setup looks pretty decent for my area, WNY Belts look to get pretty slammed looking forward to the pics Buff.

Really haven't bothered with an LES thread past couple years just been mainly Bo and myself and as I said LES been pretty lacking,  don't think people have much interest in 1-3" events and sub 100" totals for the year.

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First official freeze at Detroit yesterday. 2nd latest on record. Latest is November 15, 1946. 
 
Looks like Akron/Canton, Ohio and Wheeling, West Virginia are both experiencing their latest freezes on record. Previous records were November 12, 2016 & November 4, 1900, respectively. Wheeling will probably drop to 32 or below by midnight, and Akron/Canton by tomorrow.

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8 hours ago, Brian D said:

8-12" of snow reported this evening NE of me up the shore. Advisory went to warning. They low balled the storm totals, but that's the lake for ya :) 

Good. Build that base up at Lutsen. :ski:
 

long duration light snow event here, 2-2.5” otg but with marginally temps it’s taking heavier rates to lead to accumulation. 

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If there are any chasers out there. Buf NWS calling for feet of snow this week. I haven't seen them use crippling in a forecast discussion since Nov 2014. Could be an all timer

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  in this long duration event of MULTIPLE feet will be possible
  in the most persistent lake snows.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...
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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If there are any chasers out there. Buf NWS calling for feet of snow this week. I haven't seen them use crippling in a forecast discussion since Nov 2014. Could be an all timer

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  in this long duration event of MULTIPLE feet will be possible
  in the most persistent lake snows.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

So jealous!

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13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

First official freeze at Detroit yesterday. 2nd latest on record. Latest is November 15, 1946. 
 
Looks like Akron/Canton, Ohio and Wheeling, West Virginia are both experiencing their latest freezes on record. Previous records were November 12, 2016 & November 4, 1900, respectively. Wheeling will probably drop to 32 or below by midnight, and Akron/Canton by tomorrow.

It was actually tied for 4th latest on record

Nov 15, 1946

Nov 15, 1915

Nov 14, 1918

Nov 13, 1916

Nov 13, 2022

 

The irony of this was:

-The low on October 8th rounded to 33, was less than a 1/2 degree from what would have been an earlier than normal first freeze. Avg first freeze Oct 17.

-the first snowflakes were earlier than normal on Oct 20 (avg Oct 30)

-the first measurable snow was earlier than normal on Nov 13 (avg Nov 17)

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If there was ever an event to chase it would be this one. Could be the biggest in quite a few years and looks to hit metro buffalo which would be an easy chase. 

I legit thought about it but I just have too much going on the rest of this week. Also,  with the bands always being narrow, how difficult is it to pinpoint where to go? lol Just for future reference.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I legit thought about it but I just have too much going on the rest of this week. Also,  with the bands always being narrow, how difficult is it to pinpoint where to go? lol Just for future reference.

Its not easy to track exactly where the bands will go but we have a general idea of the most predominant wind direction which will be SW. SW winds affect Metro Buffalo and 5-10 miles north and south. 

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So far it's been 2-6" around the head of the lake with 2" here in town from a band last night. Only one report from up in Cook cty from this morning in Hovland. They had 12" right on the shoreline there. I'm sure there is higher totals just inland this morning, as a 13.5" report came in yesterday evening from well inland in Cook cty. A pretty good snow for here by the shore. We usually get a mix this time of year. Inland areas always do better.

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2-4" possible across the GTA, away from the Lake, this evening into tomorrow. Lake Ontario temperatures are still relatively warm for this time of the year. This combined with cold upper air temps, will allow the lake effect band to sustain itself through tomorrow morning. 

If surface temperatures were colder, this would've been a nice 4-8" event. But we'll take it. 

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