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November 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

WAD

Something I'm watching is how long of a gap there will be between first freeze at RFD and ORD. Rockford had it on 10/8, so it's 23 days and counting.  On average, it's more like 2 weeks between first freeze at RFD and ORD, but they have done it on the same day in some years.  

Perhaps more amazing is that Rockford has been AOB freezing 9 times.  It seems like it would be pretty unusual for Rockford to get out to a 9-0 lead, but I haven't checked into that.

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25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Something I'm watching is how long of a gap there will be between first freeze at RFD and ORD. Rockford had it on 10/8, so it's 23 days and counting.  On average, it's more like 2 weeks between first freeze at RFD and ORD, but they have done it on the same day in some years.  

Perhaps more amazing is that Rockford has been AOB freezing 9 times.  It seems like it would be pretty unusual for Rockford to get out to a 9-0 lead, but I haven't checked into that.

Sometimes stuff like that just blends in with UHI and things like that. For instance, Detroit has not had a freeze yet with their low temperature being 33゚(just missing it on the 8th), but Flint has had 7 freezes. On the other hand, Detroit has had 14 days in October with the low temperature in the 30s, but the average is 10.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

We have definitely entered the most active and wettest pattern we have been in since July.

The next two weeks will have a parade of storm systems on the regular.

The large scale pattern seems like it could be favorable for severe threat(s) in the sub, but we'll have to see if any individual system cooperates.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The large scale pattern seems like it could be favorable for severe threat(s) in the sub, but we'll have to see if any individual system cooperates.

2nd season gave me my closest call with an EF-3 (a little too close for comfort tbh). 

Can't help but like seeing shades of an 07-08 & 10-11 combo. Anyone remember GHD-1? Just need an Octo-bomb-esque autumn bruiser to set the pre-cursor tone for the Sub. 

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

I'm good with a nice November. After Thanksgiving bring on winter ala December 2000. 

The 1st 10 days warmth in November is probably a big reason for the higher probabilities of a mild November to begin with, but yes, if you look at trends in recent years we've had plenty of cold November that have led to mild Decembers. So let's switch it up.

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GFS really goes to town with the system this weekend.  Not the deepest system we've ever seen, but it strengthens at an explosive rate.  Would have a rapidly developing high wind threat on Saturday should it pan out, but a slower/delayed deepening than shown would mitigate that potential rather significantly.  So, wait and see.

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Here are some pics from about a week ago.  I haven't seen the hardwoods change color for the last 16 years. The western cities had a relative few maples in town, but overall there were non-hardwoods. There were ash trees in the west, which apparently aren't here due to the emerald ash borer. The cottonwoods out west were bright yellow if you didn't get a nasty frost, but also could become brown quickly. The oranges were kind of absent out west. The aspens planted in town were a nice yellow. It was occasionally nice to see the aspens in the natural mountain environment, but the thing is, I missed the maple trees!

He9yGID.jpg

 

SCld9Rn.jpg

Kcck4R1.jpg

7ArBGlN.jpg

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Here are some pics from about a week ago.  I haven't seen the hardwoods change color for the last 16 years. The western cities had a relative few maples in town, but overall there were non-hardwoods. There were ash trees in the west, which apparently aren't here due to the emerald ash borer. The cottonwoods out west were bright yellow if you didn't get a nasty frost, but also could become brown quickly. The oranges were kind of absent out west. The aspens planted in town were a nice yellow. It was occasionally nice to see the aspens in the natural mountain environment, but the thing is, I missed the maple trees!

He9yGID.jpg

 

SCld9Rn.jpg

Kcck4R1.jpg

7ArBGlN.jpg

Amen to that man! Maple trees put on a hell of a show in the Fall. Is this taken at Oak Openings?

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

I vividly remember that day.  SPC issued a high risk area for it.  Also remember it got pretty chilly with a bit of snow afterward.  I recall seeing pictures of snow on top of the debris.

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4 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Amen to that man! Maple trees put on a hell of a show in the Fall. Is this taken at Oak Openings?

Yes. It's kind of funny to see the perhaps specifically-planted white pine in there. The forest shouldn't have pine. It was my favorite outdoor place before the Rocky Mountains.

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9 hours ago, Chinook said:

Yes. It's kind of funny to see the perhaps specifically-planted white pine in there. The forest shouldn't have pine. It was my favorite outdoor place before the Rocky Mountains.

Yeah they planted those awhile back to help with soil erosion and actually as a revenue generating stream for the park itself when they get harvested. I agree with you that Oak Openings is a gem, and the prickly pear cactus found around the park is so damn cool. The place I got is about 10 mins east of there.

17 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Endless torch.  Ride it.

We're still hitting 80 every day here still so I definitely feel that. Not a bad way to enter November while the Western US gets much needed snow & rain

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Very happy with this opening of Nov, yesterday though was a let down for the first half. I could get to 20C if everything lines up either today or sometime this week :). Most insane is the forecast low on Sat of 14C / 57F (Nov 5)!!!

Made it to 19C on my station, should also add 23 years ago today I had nearly two feet of snow on the ground but this go around I'm walking around in shorts and soaking up the full sun, green fields remain.

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Yeah they planted those awhile back to help with soil erosion and actually as a revenue generating stream for the park itself when they get harvested. I agree with you that Oak Openings is a gem, and the prickly pear cactus found around the park is so damn cool. The place I got is about 10 mins east of there.

We're still hitting 80 every day here still so I definitely feel that. Not a bad way to enter November while the Western US gets much needed snow & rain

I found one prickly pear cactus on the Oak Openings soil years ago, not sure if it was early 2000s or something. Then I moved to a place that had prickly pear cactus, (and only that type.) The Rocky Mountain foothills at ~5100 ft had prickly pear cactus.

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