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November 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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IWX says upgrade to High Wind Warning something to monitor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Main concern in long term will be frontal passage on Sat and
associated rain/wind. Very dynamic system anticipated over the Great
Lakes given coupled upper jets and increasingly negative tilt to
mid/upper trough. Very deep PV anomaly is noted with surface
cyclogenesis down to roughly 985mb by the time it reaches Lake
Superior. Corresponding low level adjustments lead to 60-70kt LLJ
over our CWA much of the day. True mixing depths and efficiency are
always questionable in a WAA regime but most forecast soundings
suggest mixing into at least 40 kt winds Sat morning. Greater
concern will be immediately behind the front Sat afternoon with dry
air advection and some potential to mix into 50 kts. Feel confident
in at least advisory criteria gusts of 45 mph Sat. Some concern we
could reach warning criteria of 60 mph along and immediately behind
the front given very impressive wind profile just above ground level
(50 kts at 925mb). However, warning criteria events are rare for our
area and require near-perfect alignment of ingredients. One negative
factor is that isentropic analysis indicates winds largely parallel
to the isobars which may limit a more abrupt/efficient downward
momentum surge behind the front. Soundings are also fairly stable
and not expecting any thunder. Strongest gradient is also in
prefrontal segment in WAA regime with a sharp drop in gradient
strength behind the front later Sat. Given these factors decided to
just go with a high-end advisory. Later shifts may upgrade to a
warning if signals become stronger.
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This probably won't meet the technical definition of bombogenesis as it would take 24 mb of deepening in 24 hours, but it will be bombogenesis-like with a deepening rate of at least 1 mb per hour for a number of hours.  Pretty dynamic system we've got here, though not that unusual for this time of year.  You know we're dealing with something with some punch with many of the wind advisories going into effect overnight/early morning, which is typically the least favorable time of day for strong winds.  Not like mixing is even that good early on... this is largely the robust low level mass/wind response taking place as a result of the rapidly deepening system, so the poor diurnal timing really doesn't matter much.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This probably won't meet the technical definition of bombogenesis as it would take 24 mb of deepening in 24 hours, but it will be bombogenesis-like with a deepening rate of at least 1 mb per hour for a number of hours.  Pretty dynamic system we've got here, though not that unusual for this time of year.  You know we're dealing with something with some punch with many of the wind advisories going into effect overnight/early morning, which is typically the least favorable time of day for strong winds.  Not like mixing is even that good early on... this is largely the robust low level mass/wind response taking place as a result of the rapidly deepening system, so the poor diurnal timing really doesn't matter much.

11-10-98 was rippin shingles all night long. That had a real-deal cold side. This is more 11-17-13 with the lack thereof

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Evening update from Izzi

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
926 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

No big changes planned this evening, going forecast looks to be in
good shape.

Should see a dramatic ramp up in winds early Saturday morning,
particularly as the warm conveyor belt shifts east. There should
be an envelope of strong, potentially damaging southerly winds
ahead of the cold front and associated squall line. Always very
tricky in warm sector, warm air advection set-up determining how
effectively the boundary layer will mix. Assuming there is a
several hour break in precip between the warm conveyor and squall
line, it seems quite reasonable that boundary layer could deepen
some and begin to tap into some of the extremely strong winds just
off the deck. Working in favor of this scenario is the very strong
pressure falls over WI tomorrow morning in advance of the rapidly
moving and rapidly deepening sfc low. There is certainly potential
for 50kt+ gusts if rain doesn`t linger and keep things a bit more
stable. Opted to hold off on upgrading to a high wind warning on
this shift, but think the chances are slowly increasing that there
will be at least scattered 50kt+ gusts, especially eastern and
southern CWA.

Threat of thunder & lightning tonight (and Saturday morning) is
low, however as trough becomes negatively tilted overnight and
cyclone begins to rapidly intensify very strong forcing could
result in some convective elements within and especially along the
leading edge of the encroaching warm conveyor developing. Given
the extremely strong low level jet, cannot rule out a damaging
wind threat with any of these type of convective elements
overnight, especially if they can becoming oriented more
orthogonal to the LLJ. Threat of this is low, with southern CWA
favored due to lower static stability.

Squall line is likely to accompany cold front that will rapidly
sweep across the CWA mid-late morning Saturday. Certainly
plausible we could see 45-55kt gusts with this squall line, though
many areas could already be gusting that strong out ahead of the
squall line. In the wake of the cold front, could see a couple
hours of potentially flirting with 50kt+ gusts before strongest
pressure rises shift north into Wisconsin and wind fields slowly
abate mid-late afternoon.

- Izzi
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My area has been slow to get into the wind gusts. I just went jogging with a temperature of 70 degrees, fading sunshine, and wind gusts only up to about 15 to 20mph occasionally. There were groups of leaves blowing down the street. I wouldn't go jogging with 35-40 gusts, it's to much.

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NWS sort of being redundant, issuing severe t’storm warnings for the forced line of convective showers, while already having a high wind warning in effect that covers it.

Nonetheless, looks like area wide in the metro has experienced 45-60MPH wind gusts overnight and this morning. DPA was a luckily isolated location, having a 77MPH wind gust with the line of showers a bit ago.

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21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

NWS sort of being redundant, issuing severe t’storm warnings for the forced line of convective showers, while already having a high wind warning in effect that covers it.

Nonetheless, looks like area wide in the metro has experienced 45-60MPH wind gusts overnight and this morning. DPA was a luckily isolated location, having a 77MPH wind gust with the line of showers a bit ago.

It is perhaps redundant, but maybe becoming a bit more justified now with that 77 mph gust at DPA and more recently an 80 mph gust near Roselle and a 75 mph gust at Manhattan.  That's significantly stronger than what's in the high wind warning.

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My rain total is 2.06".  It's a solid total, especially for November.  Of course I wanted 3-4", like several models were predicting, but the rain was disappointingly light for much of Friday.  3+" did fall just to the west.  The only "heavy" rain we got was from one brief cell Friday morning and one brief cell Saturday morning.

The drought had been expanding and worsening, so I was really hoping a pattern change could bring a couple decent soakers before the freeze.  Two weeks ago we got 1.5" and now another 2".  Voila!

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