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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I’ve heard March 2009 be thrown around quite a bit and I actually think that’s a pretty good analog and possibly and evolution we can see. That storm had severe downsloping in the Lee but picked up totals rapidly west and east. Just look at that gradient from just west of Morganton to Hickory! 
 

anyways. The gut tells me there will be two winners: obviously the higher elevations but still someone in the eastern foothills/western piedmont is going to get under a death band of sorts and score with temps in the mid 30s. Good luck to all forecasters trying to pinpoint that spot though!

80F903C0-4A33-40F6-BD9B-D338101CD8A3.jpeg

Hard pass

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Hard pass

I know man. Trust me, I’m not wishing that result on anyone in the Lee. You and I both know that it’s a delicate balance though. ULLs can work in the foothills but you can’t be too far away from the best lift to overcome the sinking air and more times than not, these setups struggle to work out.

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4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I know man. Trust me, I’m not wishing that result on anyone in the Lee. You and I both know that it’s a delicate balance though. ULLs can work in the foothills but you can’t be too far away from the best lift to overcome the sinking air and more times than not, these setups struggle to work out.

My expectations are low here. An inch or 2 and I'm happy. 

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Seems the clear point of divergence between the GFS/NAM and the Euro/CMC is the track of the upper level vort. The GFS camp takes a more gradual ENE climb off the gulf coast staying well SE of us putting us in the sweet spot. Whereas the Euro and Canadian have become pretty consistent in a more drastic NE turn bringing the core of the ULL almost into the southern mountain counties, benefiting eastern Tennessee and Kentucky.

I can't spot the reason for this difference, the only thing that sticks out to me is there is still a significant timing difference between the two camps with the ULL's approach to the gulf, with the GFS camp several hours faster. I know the Euro and CMC have known tendencies to hold energy back too long. Thing is I don't know if this is causing the difference in eventual track or if it's insignificant. On the brightside, even a solution in between the two camps is probably a nice event for most of the area. Hopefully as we get more into the wheelhouse of short range models accuracy windows things will become more clear. 

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3 minutes ago, Hvward said:

RDPS keeps getting warmer..  that's somewhat concerning.

I noticed that as well. This is going to be a 25th hour to decide who gets under the best forcing. Even the mountains could miss out

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25 minutes ago, Hvward said:

RDPS keeps getting warmer..  that's somewhat concerning.

I guess it's just the closer surface low track making the difference there? I know the vort is a little weaker than on the NAM but it has temperatures rising in spots that should be dynamically cooling given the upper air temps.

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With models now showing most if not all of our snow coming from a deform band type feature as the upper level energy swings through behind the surface low, I guess we pretty much wanna go all in on as strong and dynamic of a system as we can get, even if it means more rain from the beginning of the storm. 

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

With models now showing most if not all of our snow coming from a deform band type feature as the upper level energy swings through behind the surface low, I guess we pretty much wanna go all in on as strong and dynamic of a system as we can get, even if it means more rain from the beginning of the storm. 

Exactly!

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