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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Sueprised nobody has mentioned the hi res NAM. Its not fully into range but looks pretty awful. 

It's all the way at the end of its range for one, but honestly it doesn't look all that different from the 12k at the same timeframe. If rolled forward it would probably produce similar results, just finer details obviously. Now I know the NAM wasn't great for everybody but that's a whole different story.

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Lots of love for WNC on the weather channel! Not telling you folks anything you don’t know but low placement & strength are going to be key in this one. Really hard for the models to pinpoint this. Synoptically the far SW Mnts except at high elevations will have boundary layer issues, the escarpment areas do well, the Balsams rake, the French Broad valley snow hole may appear, the Northern Mnts will have great variations but will generally over preform, the Foothills will be very tricky. Will be a exciting and frustrating chase for you guys. All in all a typical southern winter system for WNC!


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9 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Lots of love for WNC on the weather channel! Not telling you folks anything you don’t know but low placement & strength are going to be key in this one. Really hard for the models to pinpoint this. Synoptically the far SW Mnts except at high elevations will have boundary layer issues, the escarpment areas do well, the Balsams rake, the French Broad valley snow hole may appear, the Northern Mnts will have great variations but will generally over preform, the Foothills will be very tricky. Will be a exciting and frustrating chase for you guys. All in all a typical southern winter system for WNC!


.

Yeah it's been years since we've had a storm roll through here like this. I can remember one winter all we got was ull lows coming through.  That was about what 7 or 8 years ago. One thing I like is seeing the euro and the gfs agree on this thing. The details may not get ironed out until it is actually happening. 

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11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

Thats pretty painful for the foothills but he's usually conservative 

He just filtered it by elevation.  Looks like he’s saying above 1200’ is where accumulation would be and the. Going from there i.e. above 3500’ =5-7”, above 5000’ = 7-9”.  

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

Thats pretty painful for the foothills but he's usually conservative 

I think his entire graphic/forecast is simply based on elevation. Thus, the lower elevations of the foothills and piedmont get very little and all the high peaks of the Apps are in pink. It’s not necessarily a bad way to go, but I think your geographic location (more north, more west, more…) should also play into a full forecast. For instance, Hunter’s forecast has more snow forecast for the high peaks in the Balsams area than Panovich has for up around Grandfather Mountain, even though they are relatively the same in elevation. Thus, Hunter’s is more nuanced to consider other factors than just elevation. (To be fair to Panovich, he seems to be calling this “potential” rather than a forecast.)

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30 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I think his entire graphic/forecast is simply based on elevation. Thus, the lower elevations of the foothills and piedmont get very little and all the high peaks of the Apps are in pink. It’s not necessarily a bad way to go, but I think your geographic location (more north, more west, more…) should also play into a full forecast. For instance, Hunter’s forecast has more snow forecast for the high peaks in the Balsams area than Panovich has for up around Grandfather Mountain, even though they are relatively the same in elevation. Thus, Hunter’s is more nuanced to consider other factors than just elevation. (To be fair to Panovich, he seems to be calling this “potential” rather than a forecast.)

Yes based on elevation but that doesn't always work as you said. I will take Hunters local expertise on microclimates. 

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4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

1-2 sloppy inches of heavy wet snow would be a great win for Hickory. These ratios are going to be like 5:1, not 10.1. Thus, I’ll adjust the GFS Kuchera output for KHKY of 5.3 down to 2 or so. Hoping to see actual snowflakes fall from the sky. It’s been so long…

Yeah this is going to be an extremely heavy wet snow for sure. A beautiful snow that will lay on everything. 

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