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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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I believe the mountains are in pretty good shape actually. Having lived here as long as I have, I can't count how many times we've seen models struggle in the 24-36 hour time frame before an event only to swing back to where they were previously. The dynamics are still in place IMO. Heavy precipitation should force just enough cooling for most of us at 2,000 feet elevation and up. We all know any event can go sideways, but I still think many here will be please on Sunday.

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Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville,
Black Mountain, Candler, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee,
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands,
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River,
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah,
Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
234 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 4 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of a light
  glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The North Carolina mountains.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday evening.
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7 minutes ago, cold air aloft said:

I believe the mountains are in pretty good shape actually. Having lived here as long as I have, I can't count how many times we've seen models struggle in the 24-36 hour time frame before an event only to swing back to where they were previously. The dynamics are still in place IMO. Heavy precipitation should force just enough cooling for most of us at 2,000 feet elevation and up. We all know any event can go sideways, but I still think many here will be please on Sunday.

My thoughts exactly, For those of us that have lived here a while we've seen this before.

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47 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yall can bail anytime yall want to but im still optimistic about everything especially for us mountain folk.  The foothills is a different story and may I remind you the NAM has had issues recently with snowfall and with accumulations. 

Good post . Spot on. The Nam last I knew still has a warm bias. Don't think it was ever corrected. Also, I think your location and 2500+ ele should do fine.

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3 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

Hunter had a very good YouTube update a few minutes ago. I encourage everyone to check it out. I appreciate the no hype and steady hand this young man offers from a forecaster prospective. I've know an awfully lot of professional forecasters over the years and I continue to be very impressed with Hunter Ward. We are fortunate to have him here in WNC and our forum!

Hunter is a great forecaster and even better person.  Having spent some time with Hunter and lots of Communication he is a true professional.  

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 415 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 NCZ033-049-050-052-111715- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.230212T0000Z-230213T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0002.230212T0000Z-230213T0500Z/ Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, and Cove Creek 415 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell and Haywood Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty winds could combine with the wintry precipitation to knock down some trees and power lines. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the expected temperatures. A small change could lead to more freezing rain or sleet and less snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet, and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep a flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk



8e9eff1ac80e60f06da4c86e594e7ea3.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Hvward said:

HRRR has heavy snow breaking in Haywood tonight around 7pm.

I haven't posted anything this winter. It has seemed pretty definite that everything will turn to trash the closer the model runs come to the event.  NWS has downtown staying all rain, not even a sleet pellet and only "maybe" an inch where I am in Candler. So, hoping for a miracle. Seems like we are due.

Anyway, I would like to concur with the compliments from above. I know so many people that say, I listen to this guy, lol. I say, Hunter?? Yeah, that's him. You do a great job, right or wrong and you are right more often than not. But, I don't envy anybody forecasting around here !!! 

So, keep doing doing what you are doing. People appreciate it.

... And this is not to minimize any other local forecaster. :)

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30 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

I haven't posted anything this winter. It has seemed pretty definite that everything will turn to trash the closer the model runs come to the event.  NWS has downtown staying all rain, not even a sleet pellet and only "maybe" an inch where I am in Candler. So, hoping for a miracle. Seems like we are due.

Anyway, I would like to concur with the compliments from above. I know so many people that say, I listen to this guy, lol. I say, Hunter?? Yeah, that's him. You do a great job, right or wrong and you are right more often than not. But, I don't envy anybody forecasting around here !!! 

So, keep doing doing what you are doing. People appreciate it.

... And this is not to minimize any other local forecaster. :)

Thank you for the kind words ncjoaquin! 

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