Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 That is one hell of a snowstorm for us in the mountains. Moderate to heavy snowfall for the majority of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Posting snowfall map for new page.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bess Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Posting snowfall map for new page.Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkI get snow holed in Lenoir… as if it gets any worse…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Verbatim it has me riding the edge, but that was a huge step in the right direction from previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, bess said: I get snow holed in Lenoir… as if it gets any worse… . Im afraid that this storm is going to be very elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Sometimes I can get lucky in these setups being nestled so close to the Blue Ridge even though im at a low elevation. I have seen storms where we het 4 or 5 inches and eastern McDowell barely an inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The 0z NAM and GFS are almost identical at 84hr. Once the ULL cuts off and drops down to the Gulf coast, then it's just ENE movement and strengthening. The GFS is stronger this run versus 18z. If we can get this track to hold it's paste job in the MTN's for sure. Also these stronger runs both show a warm nose affecting areas briefly Sunday morning...especially the northern mountains. The scenario could play out a snow to freezing rain/sleet back to snow type of deal. I've seen that happen before with these stupid warm noses. There is a reason they say "Upper Level Lows equals Weatherman's woes". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Canadian is still the worst of the globals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GEFS snowfall mean. A great signal for the mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 UK took a big step back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 One thing I'm interested in seeing in the morning is what the spread on the EPS low locations looks like, cause on the GEFS there is maybe a few members that are as far west as the Canadian and none are anywhere close to the Ukie. The vast majority of the Canadians ensemble members are east of its own operational as well for what its worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This is a stronger storm on the Euro than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The ull cuts much further West than the gfs does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This looks like a mess on the euro. For some reason the ull is stronger but lacking moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 00z euro. Middle Tennessee is the winner this time. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Not real concerned with the movement of the precipitation field currently. This is far from being hammered out. We may have to wait until Friday to get a great read on the exact track because that will determine who are the winners and losers in this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This is the snowfall depth mean on the eps. That's all I could pull from pivitol. Again the mountains are the most favorable. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The 06z NAM snowfall total through 84 hours but it was still snowing hard at the last frame. Another solution though.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 06z gfs snowfall total. This run just crushes the mountains. Some insane totals in this run.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 06z GEFS snow mean. Again looks great for us in the mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: 06z GEFS snow mean. Again looks great for us in the mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I have not had a snow mean that high all winter. Let's hope the American models are right on this one. The GFS has lead the way so far. Can we finally reel one in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GEFS snowfall mean. A great signal for the mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkNot to mention the foothills. Nice uptick for sure! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 06z gfs snowfall total. This run just crushes the mountains. Some insane totals in this run.Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkCan see the downslope lee side on this run for sure! Should be a fun ride over the next 2 days as this gets hammered out! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 One not so fun trend I’m seeing for the foothills is the clear downsloping signal on the globals. A tale older than time. These setups are notoriously difficult to pull off in the immediate Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bess Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 One not so fun trend I’m seeing for the foothills is the clear downsloping signal on the globals. A tale older than time. These setups are notoriously difficult to pull off in the immediate Lee. Im hoping that goes away for my sake…. But not holding my breath.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I'm not worried about downsloping. The north/west trend is likely going to give us a nasty cold rain. This could turn into an east kentucky storm like the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I'm not worried about downsloping. The north/west trend is likely going to give us a nasty cold rain. This could turn into an east kentucky storm like the Euro is showing. 6z brings back better snowfall totals to WNC but is still on the low end of guidance. Looking at sounds and temps are extremely borderline. I think we continue to see wobbles with the surface low and that’s going to play key with the warm nose presenting itself. Asheville area looks good for at least a couple of inches. Foothills area still very questionable. Not sure that EKY becomes the winner here though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Here’s to a fun day of tracking. Remember we’re gonna have wobbles back and forth, just enjoy the ride. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I’ve heard March 2009 be thrown around quite a bit and I actually think that’s a pretty good analog and possibly an evolution we can see. That storm had severe downsloping in the Lee but picked up totals rapidly west and east. Just look at that gradient from just west of Morganton to Hickory! anyways. The gut tells me there will be two winners: obviously the higher elevations but still someone in the eastern foothills/western piedmont is going to get under a death band of sorts and score with temps in the mid 30s. Good luck to all forecasters trying to pinpoint that spot though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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