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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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The 0z NAM and GFS are almost identical at 84hr.  Once the ULL cuts off and drops down to the Gulf coast, then it's just ENE movement and strengthening.   The GFS is stronger this run versus 18z.  If we can get this track to hold it's paste job in the MTN's for sure.

Also these stronger runs both show a warm nose affecting areas briefly Sunday morning...especially the northern mountains.  The scenario could play out a snow to freezing rain/sleet back to snow type of deal.  I've seen that happen before with these stupid warm noses.

There is a reason they say "Upper Level Lows equals Weatherman's woes".

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gfs-deterministic-se-z500_barbs-6203200.png

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One thing I'm interested in seeing in the morning is what the spread on the EPS low locations looks like, cause on the GEFS there is maybe a few members that are as far west as the Canadian and none are anywhere close to the Ukie. The vast majority of the Canadians ensemble members are east of its own operational as well for what its worth. 

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I'm not worried about downsloping. The north/west trend is likely going to give us a nasty cold rain. This could turn into an east kentucky storm like the Euro is showing. 

6z brings back better snowfall totals to WNC but is still on the low end of guidance. Looking at sounds and temps are extremely borderline. I think we continue to see wobbles with the surface low and that’s going to play key with the warm nose presenting itself. Asheville area looks good for at least a couple of inches. Foothills area still very questionable. Not sure that EKY becomes the winner here though.
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I’ve heard March 2009 be thrown around quite a bit and I actually think that’s a pretty good analog and possibly an evolution we can see. That storm had severe downsloping in the Lee but picked up totals rapidly west and east. Just look at that gradient from just west of Morganton to Hickory! 
 

anyways. The gut tells me there will be two winners: obviously the higher elevations but still someone in the eastern foothills/western piedmont is going to get under a death band of sorts and score with temps in the mid 30s. Good luck to all forecasters trying to pinpoint that spot though!

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