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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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GSP downplaying the next one.  The clown maps may be incorrectly showing some of the rain as snow before the NWF starts up.  

Profiles will quickly fall below freezing through
the column and any lingering low-level moisture will eek out some
light snow showers in the favored upslope zones along the NC-TN
border and the spine of the Appalachians.  Only light, sub-advisory
accumulations are currently expected, even at the higher elevations
of the northern mountains.  Flurries may continue well into the
day Thursday...not ending entirely until early afternoon, as CAA
begins to falter and residual valley moisture is finally exhausted.
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Not sure if it's a blip because of the supercomputer outage on the euro but wow is it ugly after this next storm and the ensembles kind of agree. The cold air is pushed back to the 4th on the 12z eps now. Again maybe a blip but this is why I have little to no faith currently in us seeking a change anytime soon that is really meaningful. 

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The 18z gfs operation doesn't look good either. Doesn't really make a great push of cold air in here at all. The negative epo just dumps west and the SER flexes and the trough cuts north of us. 
I will gladly punt the rest of this winter if I don't have to see this piece of junk pattern again for another decade.
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Just now, Tyler Penland said:
2 hours ago, Met1985 said:
The 18z gfs operation doesn't look good either. Doesn't really make a great push of cold air in here at all. The negative epo just dumps west and the SER flexes and the trough cuts north of us. 

I will gladly punt the rest of this winter if I don't have to see this piece of junk pattern again for another decade.

Yeah same here. 

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The 18z gfs operation doesn't look good either. Doesn't really make a great push of cold air in here at all. The negative epo just dumps west and the SER flexes and the trough cuts north of us. 

Yeah, this is one of the crappiest Winters of my lifetime. Reminds me of the 1973-74, '90-91 and '91-92 Winters here.

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Yeah, this is one of the crappiest Winters of my lifetime. Reminds me of the 1973-74, '90-91 and '91-92 Winters here.
Would anyone be interested in meeting up here in Wolf for a nwf event and taking a little hike along the AT? I thought I'd throw it out there...4wd is a must, but trust me, it's worth it. It's not a long hike, up to the bald and back is a little over a mile.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

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6 hours ago, Phelps said:

GSP downplaying the next one.  The clown maps may be incorrectly showing some of the rain as snow before the NWF starts up.  

Profiles will quickly fall below freezing through
the column and any lingering low-level moisture will eek out some
light snow showers in the favored upslope zones along the NC-TN
border and the spine of the Appalachians.  Only light, sub-advisory
accumulations are currently expected, even at the higher elevations
of the northern mountains.  Flurries may continue well into the
day Thursday...not ending entirely until early afternoon, as CAA
begins to falter and residual valley moisture is finally exhausted.

Maybe I'll be wrong but I just don't see anything telling me that elevations above 4k feet won't get 3+ inches out of this event.  This is for areas north of Ashville.  Really these NWF events are not that difficult to get a good idea about.  850 moisture will be plenty into Friday and 850 temps will be cold enough to wring it out.  QPF of GFS is .3+ inches while 3k NAM is way more but I've seen that bust too high many times.

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3 hours ago, Buckethead said:

Would anyone be interested in meeting up here in Wolf for a nwf event and taking a little hike along the AT? I thought I'd throw it out there...4wd is a must, but trust me, it's worth it. It's not a long hike, up to the bald and back is a little over a mile.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

If I had time I would love to. Got a newborn and 2 and a half year old so I'm pretty occupied. 

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17 hours ago, Buckethead said:

Would anyone be interested in meeting up here in Wolf for a nwf event and taking a little hike along the AT? I thought I'd throw it out there...4wd is a must, but trust me, it's worth it. It's not a long hike, up to the bald and back is a little over a mile.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

I would be interested in doing that sometime.   

I am always looking for new access points to trailheads for the the Appalachian Trail without trespassing on someone else's private land.  The OnX OffRoad app does a good job of showing who owns which land.  I have never visited the bald in your area.

I would bring along my Garmin Montana 

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Maybe I'll be wrong but I just don't see anything telling me that elevations above 4k feet won't get 3+ inches out of this event.  This is for areas north of Ashville.  Really these NWF events are not that difficult to get a good idea about.  850 moisture will be plenty into Friday and 850 temps will be cold enough to wring it out.  QPF of GFS is .3+ inches while 3k NAM is way more but I've seen that bust too high many times.
The only caveat I see is the flow is more westerly this time. My area doesn't do as well typically in that setup.

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41 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

The only caveat I see is the flow is more westerly this time. My area doesn't do as well typically in that setup.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

I could see that.  It will be interesting to see how isolated to the far northern mountains this turns out to be.  I still feel good about Beech Mtn. but less and less so the further south you go.

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The mountain wave has arrived. Winds are increasing dramatically the past 15 minutes and gusts approaching 60 MPH are possible even in the Valley. On a personal note, my 88 year old Mom survived the EF-3 Tornado that impacted SE Texas yesterday afternoon by getting in her bath tub just before it struck her apartment complex in Deer Park, TX. I am forever grateful for my friends and former colleagues at NWS HGX and the Houston media who got the message out ahead of time and throughout the day yesterday. So far, there has not been any deaths or significant injuries associated with the Tornado. 

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37 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

The mountain wave has arrived. Winds are increasing dramatically the past 15 minutes and gusts approaching 60 MPH are possible even in the Valley. On a personal note, my 88 year old Mom survived the EF-3 Tornado that impacted SE Texas yesterday afternoon by getting in her bath tub just before it struck her apartment complex in Deer Park, TX. I am forever grateful for my friends and former colleagues at NWS HGX and the Houston media who got the message out ahead of time and throughout the day yesterday. So far, there has not been any deaths or significant injuries associated with the Tornado. 

Great news! I bet that was freaking scary as crap. Thank gosh for bathtubs. 

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31.9 here on Beech with light snow.  Here's to the GSP forecast busting...hopefully!
We have a dusting on raised surfaces already and it's beginning to stick to the ground. That didn't take long at all...and this is supposed to go through tomorrow. We just might bust the forecast, which was less than an inch here.

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