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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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41 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

The only caveat I see is the flow is more westerly this time. My area doesn't do as well typically in that setup.

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I could see that.  It will be interesting to see how isolated to the far northern mountains this turns out to be.  I still feel good about Beech Mtn. but less and less so the further south you go.

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37 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

The mountain wave has arrived. Winds are increasing dramatically the past 15 minutes and gusts approaching 60 MPH are possible even in the Valley. On a personal note, my 88 year old Mom survived the EF-3 Tornado that impacted SE Texas yesterday afternoon by getting in her bath tub just before it struck her apartment complex in Deer Park, TX. I am forever grateful for my friends and former colleagues at NWS HGX and the Houston media who got the message out ahead of time and throughout the day yesterday. So far, there has not been any deaths or significant injuries associated with the Tornado. 

Great news! I bet that was freaking scary as crap. Thank gosh for bathtubs. 

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31.9 here on Beech with light snow.  Here's to the GSP forecast busting...hopefully!
We have a dusting on raised surfaces already and it's beginning to stick to the ground. That didn't take long at all...and this is supposed to go through tomorrow. We just might bust the forecast, which was less than an inch here.

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Yesterday, a buddy and I hiked from Brown Gap north on the AT to Max Patch. It was a beautiful clear day. Snow the day before had come down to about 3300. Brown Gap is at 3500 and Max Patch is at 4600. Thus, we hiked in about an inch of snow the entire way - just under 7.5 miles round trip. I love being the first on a trail after a snowfall, so that my tracks are the first made (other than the many animal signs we saw).

When we got to Max Patch summit, we had it completely to ourselves. 360 views under clear skies. Beautiful views of the snow line on the Black Mountain Range to the NE, Mt LeConte to the SW, and Roan Highland balds way in the distance to the N. According to my Kestrel, the temperature at the summit was 24 F, the max wind gust I recorded was 21 mph, and the average wind speed was a stiff 12 mph producing a wind chill frequently in the single digits. Fortunately, we were dressed for the elements, and the sun made it very pleasant (as long as you kept your back to the wind). And, that part of the AT is quite sheltered, other than when on the summit.

I love a good winter hike!

(These are some lower-res uploads from Tapatalk. Not that great, but you will get the idea.)

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Would be nice to see some ensemble support for that Miller A on the GFS starting around 180 hours out. Verbatim that's a wet snow paste bomb all the way up the mountain chain. Soundings even for here showed all snow between 31-33 degrees throughout. CMC has the same exact storm just warmer, showing ice to rain, to backside snow.

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While west and middle Tennessee get a winter event our outlook is possible flooding with so much rain coming in. I have zero faith in any winter weather the first week of February at this point. 
Yeah, my forecast has a 90% chance of soft mud for the foreseeable future.

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We have the NAM, NAM 3km, RDPS, Canadian, & GFS all showing snow showers to a good portion of WNC late Thursday night and into Friday.  This looks like it could actually happen.  Might sneak up on us!  Sounds look pretty good though from most models, Nam and NAM 3km even showing some accumulation. 

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18 minutes ago, Hvward said:

We have the NAM, NAM 3km, RDPS, Canadian, & GFS all showing snow showers to a good portion of WNC late Thursday night and into Friday.  This looks like it could actually happen.  Might sneak up on us!  Sounds look pretty good though from most models, Nam and NAM 3km even showing some accumulation. 

Was just looking at this very thing. Looks promising at a very close range. 

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6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Just saw where this January was the 6th warmest in record in Asheville... 

I have been hearing the peepers here in late February the past few years but never January.  

 

If we didn't get the cold spell back a few weeks ago that gave you snow, I bet this would be a top 3 warm January. 

Now that the models are generally forecasting a very warm February, maybe we can reverse the mojo for all the long range cold that never happened. 

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