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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Looks like it some ice tomorrow for the favored CAD regions. 

Buncombe-
Including the cities of Asheville, Black Mountain, and Candler
421 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of less
  than a tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...High elevations of Buncombe County around the Black
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday.
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Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Tazewell,
Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski,
Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax,
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs,
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart,
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union,
Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
405 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Areas of sleet and freezing rain expected. Total sleet
  accumulations of up to a half inch and ice accumulations of up
  to a tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest North Carolina, southwest and
  west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.
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17 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the so called pattern change is not going to come to fruition until probably March.... There has been a recurring theme that has repeated since September. And that is exactly what we are looking at. At this point the only way we get a synoptic storm is threading the needle on a storm because we are getting plenty of moisture in here.

Seems we have seen that most springs, teleconnections go cold, lock in the east coast trough sometime in March and largely stay that way until mid-May.  Today is a prime example of a beautiful 50 degree January day that you would never get in the spring because 20 to 30 mph winds always accompany the cooler temps that time of year.  Enjoy today folks!

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3 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

While some are lamenting that winter is done and dead, we likely are about to experience a week with multiple chances of snow, possibly 3 to be exact. Mt hope is our ski areas have more chances to make snow and some natural to increase their bases. I frankly don't trust what wx Twitter and the model mood swings are selling. I will gladly post pictures throughout the week, if it verifies and be satisfied. 

Yeah, GSP just added "rain and snow likely" to my forecast on Tuesday night down here. Didn't see that coming.

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WSW issued for Mountain City down to Gatlinburg!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE


 

4:29 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches possible above 2500 feet. 4 to 8 inches possible at the highest peaks. * WHERE...Portions of the East Tennessee mountains * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds could also gust up to 30 mph in the higher elevations during this time.

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54 minutes ago, K4CF said:
WSW issued for Mountain City down to Gatlinburg!URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
 
 
 
 
 

4:29 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches possible above 2500 feet. 4 to 8 inches possible at the highest peaks. * WHERE...Portions of the East Tennessee mountains * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds could also gust up to 30 mph in the higher elevations during this time.

GSP is planning on reissiung a WWA instead of a watch. Different criteria on this side of the mountains I presume.


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM EST Sunday:

The main precip area will lift out to the east before the cold air
arrives east of the mtns, so no problems there. That will not be the
case across the mountains, however.

A transition to a NW Flow Upslope precip event takes place late
tonight as the 850 mb trof passes around 06Z and cold air advection
commences. Precip probs rise back to likely/categorical in the
upslope areas near the TN border in the early morning hours and
precip changes from rain to snow from the ridgetops down to the
valleys between midnight and daybreak. The NW flow snow will
continue through the better part of the day on Monday mostly
near the TN border. Snow amounts are expected to be more variable
than the last event with less of a potential for snow outside of
the upslope areas. That being said, guidance shows a window of
opportunity between 12Z and 18Z Monday when the moisture will poke
up into the dendritic growth zone, affording some good snow making
potential. Will not be surprised if elevations above 4500 feet or
so get 6-12 inches between Midnight and late afternoon Monday,
but overall, an average snowfall across elevations above 3500
feet is not likely to reach Warning criteria.
The present course
is toward issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight and
Monday along the TN border.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

It is a crying shame that in the extended range in January we get a low that tracks south of us and we still cannot pull a snowstorm out of that scenario.  I don't care what you say. That is a sign of a crap pattern if there ever was one. 

I’ve tried to dial back my pessimism the last few weeks since it’s still early but I think it’s safe to say our odds in the SE for a synoptic event this winter are trending down quick. Wouldn’t totally be shocked to see a fluke event such as an upper low digging at the perfect time but this just might not be our year for a biggie. Hope I’m wrong! On the bright side, for most you, snow is possible through April. It might be a backloaded winter in the High Country anyways, because it seems like our pattern always goes harshly cold in March lately.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

NCZ033-048>052-058-230400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0003.230123T0500Z-230123T2100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
and Stecoah
224 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locations along the Tennessee border at
elevations above 4500 feet on the northwest facing slopes could
receive snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. Up to 2 inches will be possible in the valleys.


Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

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