September 2022

[MJO812]

Time to watch?

[WestBabylonWeather]

Underwhelming in west babylon. But it was heavy for a bit. No measurement but I’d guess maybe .5 

[MJO812]

[scootmandu]

We got .44 in Fort Salonga, in NW Suffolk. Temperature and dew point really started to drop shortly before noon.  Bottomed out around 4 PM, before inching back up. Now 63/59.

[STORMANLI]

0.66"

830am Thunder

[Rjay]

0.71

[MANDA]

Just .31" for the event here.  UNLESS moisture from 98L eventually gets up here will be dry over the next 7 days with sprawling high pressure over the area.  All will hinge on what track 98L eventually takes.

[donsutherland1]

A strong cold front moved across the region during the morning and early afternoon bringing showers and thundershowers. In response, temperatures began falling even as the sun returned. Tomorrow, many parts of the region will experience their coldest temperatures so far this season.

Temperatures will warm up during the second half of the weekend. However, in part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions.

During Saturday, Hurricane Fiona will likely make landfall in Atlantic Canada. With a contribution from the ongoing marine heatwave, Fiona will likely do so as a category 2 hurricane. Canada's lowest barometric pressure on record could be challenged.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +12.72 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.341 today.

On September 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.336 (RMM). The September 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.365 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

[SI Mailman]

83 degrees with light rain showers from 98L down here in Aruba. I have a feeling I’ll see rain again from this system considering I’ll be back in NY in 48 hours

[MJO812]

0z eps

[Allsnow]

Chilly this morning. Definitely a fall feel 

[bluewave]

The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north.  So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not. 

 

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of September are averaging  63degs.(56/70) or -3.

Month to date is  72.6[+1.9].         September should end at  70.0[+0.8].

Reached 76 here yesterday before Noon.    Then fell to 63 and then back up to 72 in the late PM.

51*(57%RH) here at 7am.        53* at 9am.     57* at Noon.       60* at 1:30pm.      62* at 3pm.      63* at 4pm.

As for 98L:

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north.  So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not. 

 

Gfs just rots it in the southeast 

[MANDA]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north.  So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not. 

 

Pressure gradient between high to the north and Hermine to the south would create vast onshore flow at a minimum (assuming the OP EURO is onto something with track up coast) with above normal tides and coastal flooding up to SNE.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today sunny but unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 67°

Tomorrow will be another cool day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.5°; 15-Year: 74.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4°

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pressure gradient between high to the north and Hermine to the south would create vast onshore flow at a minimum (assuming the OP EURO is onto something with track up coast) with above normal tides and coastal flooding up to SNE.

Most of the guidance like the EPS and GEM have a slower track north with Hermine. So the OP Euro seems to be on its own at 0z The other models have Hermine missing the first trough and stalling out near Florida. The GEM may be the middle ground with Herimine finally getting lifted north with the second trough next weekend. Hopefully, we can eventually get some rain from this.
 

[lee59]

Some snow in Lake Placid, upstate NY.

[Allsnow]

I can’t remember the last time we had one of these fall fronts. This was very well forecasted from last week on the guidance 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I can’t remember the last time we had one of these fall fronts. This was very well forecasted from last week on the guidance 

Newark has a shot at 40s tomorrow am which would be early by recent standards. 
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
Minimum	05-01 (2018)		09-02 (2017)		110
Mean	05-16		09-28		134
Maximum	06-02 (2015)		10-18 (2021)		164
2021	05-30 (2021)	48	10-18 (2021)	46	140
2020	05-21 (2020)	47	09-19 (2020)	48	120
2019	05-15 (2019)	45	09-19 (2019)	49	126
2018	05-01 (2018)	44	10-13 (2018)	47	164
2017	05-14 (2017)	44	09-02 (2017)	49	110
2016	05-16 (2016)	40	10-10 (2016)	47	146
2015	06-02 (2015)	49	10-02 (2015)	48	121
2014	05-07 (2014)	47	10-05 (2014)	44	150
2013	05-27 (2013)	46	09-15 (2013)	48	110
2012	05-11 (2012)	48	09-25 (2012)	48	136
2011	05-06 (2011)	44	10-02 (2011)	49	148
2010	05-13 (2010)	43	10-03 (2010)	49	142

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark has a shot at 40s tomorrow am which would be early by recent standards. 
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
Minimum	05-01 (2018)		09-02 (2017)		110
Mean	05-16		09-28		134
Maximum	06-02 (2015)		10-18 (2021)		164
2021	05-30 (2021)	48	10-18 (2021)	46	140
2020	05-21 (2020)	47	09-19 (2020)	48	120
2019	05-15 (2019)	45	09-19 (2019)	49	126
2018	05-01 (2018)	44	10-13 (2018)	47	164
2017	05-14 (2017)	44	09-02 (2017)	49	110
2016	05-16 (2016)	40	10-10 (2016)	47	146
2015	06-02 (2015)	49	10-02 (2015)	48	121
2014	05-07 (2014)	47	10-05 (2014)	44	150
2013	05-27 (2013)	46	09-15 (2013)	48	110
2012	05-11 (2012)	48	09-25 (2012)	48	136
2011	05-06 (2011)	44	10-02 (2011)	49	148
2010	05-13 (2010)	43	10-03 (2010)	49	142

The new climate normal 

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Chilly this morning. Definitely a fall feel 

The wind definitely makes it feel cool outside. 

[MJO812]

Nhc expecting a major hurricane to hit Florida 

[nyrangers1022]

Missing summer already 

[T5403CG]

58f @11:30am.. in SW Suffolk... Beautiful

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk

[bluewave]

Fiona will probably be the strongest storm to hit Nova Scotia.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Fiona will probably be the strongest storm to hit Nova Scotia.

 

 

 

Almost certainly, the ongoing marine heatwave has put a category 3 scenario on the table for Nova Scotia. Without it, one would see a weaker but still potent storm.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Almost certainly, the ongoing marine heatwave has put a category 3 scenario on the table for Nova Scotia. Without it, one would see a weaker but still potent storm.

Yeah, Sandy would have been stronger had it occurred a month earlier with a record warm pool like this. 
 

 

 

[nycwinter]

what a blustery day for september my hands were cold i should have worn gloves..

[JustinRP37]

The next few weeks are going to be stressful for linemen on the east coast. A lot of eastern states have sent help to Puerto Rico and now eastern Canada will need a ton of linemen to repair the damage after tomorrow. This will quickly be followed by the need for linemen most likely in Florida. A quiet season suddenly turned into a very LOUD and COSTLY season within the blink of an eye. People don't remember a season for the number of storms, then remember them for the severity and this week along could prove to be one of the costliest weather disasters we have seen in quite some time. Fiona will likely be Canada's costliest and most damaging storm of all time.