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Tracking the Tropics


40/70 Benchmark
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12Z GFS is beautiful if you want a strong New England hurricane.  Storm intensifies as it moves north over the gulf stream  High pressure to our east blocks it from escaping out to sea.  Trough comes in from the west and yanks it northward.  Long Island up the Connecticut River.  Only 270 hours away.

Screenshot 2022-09-14 125544.jpg

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

12Z GFS is beautiful if you want a strong New England hurricane.  Storm intensifies as it moves north over the gulf stream  High pressure to our east blocks it from escaping out to sea.  Trough comes in from the west and yanks it northward.  Long Island up the Connecticut River.  Only 270 hours away.

Screenshot 2022-09-14 125544.jpg

Up to that point, its similar to Bob, but the difference is that Bob was allowed to leak east beyond that....this one is blocked, so all hell breaks lose.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The blocking is key to avoid the inevitable and inexorable eastward leak in track upon approach that is often so crucial to averting disaster at this latitude. Surprising how many forecasters miss that.

For a big storm in New England (wind) the storm center has to stay west.  The other factor is that a storm starts weakening north of the Carolina's so you need a strong trough to the west to yank it north very quickly. 

At least this is something to watch although what could go wrong? Dry air, wind shear, islands with mountains, high pressure and trough location and only 270 hours out.

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The blocking is key to avoid the inevitable and inexorable eastward leak in track upon approach that is often so crucial to averting disaster at this latitude. Surprising how many forecasters miss that.

Something will save us from disaster…it (just about) always does. 

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28 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z GFS is beautiful if you want a strong New England hurricane.  Storm intensifies as it moves north over the gulf stream  High pressure to our east blocks it from escaping out to sea.  Trough comes in from the west and yanks it northward.  Long Island up the Connecticut River.  Only 270 hours away.

Screenshot 2022-09-14 125544.jpg

Lock it Lol! That’s a James storm if I ever saw one!

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3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

1635, 1815, 1938, …? The top dogs seem to only show up every 100-150 years or so. Could still be a while. 

Well, we have the Carol's, Donna's, Gloria's and Bob's sprinkled in that at a greater rate of return, which are destructive enough in their own right.

We are overdue for one of those.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we have the Carol's, Donna's, Gloria's and Bob's sprinkled in that at a greater rate of return, which are destructive enough in their own right.

We are overdue for one of those.

Absolutely. Those are probably more like a 30-50 year return rate I’d guess. 

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tossed for gfs. :) 

These two guidance have flip (reversed) across the western hemisphere entirely from where they were 24 hours ago.  Yesterday, the Euro was a warm ridge and the GFS was the bully N stream.   Utterly, flipped.  12z GFS now carries a bulging heat dome/ridge after this next Wed, and the Euro looks well above 50% similar to those previous GFS runs.

Either solution could prevail. ..

I can see why they are tussling over it.  The entire N arc of the Pacific circulation mode is entering an A/B phase due to the absorption of a "Merbok" into a two stream phase over the eastern limb of the WPO domain, ...sending a shock wave through the flow that ends up as a powerful jet moving SE through Canada in a week.   That's the gist of this Euro, and the previous GFS ( again, now flipped themes).

The models are taking turns with more than less proficiency in that phase and subsequent consequence down stream.  

Which... if there is going to be a hurricane to monitor - that's not really part of that above, but it could 'chancy' be in the right(wrong) place at the right(wrong) time...etc..etc...  That's all this is - timing as far as the hurricane part of this.  

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