Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,163
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Michael Butler
    Newest Member
    Michael Butler
    Joined

August Discobs 2022


George BM
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, yoda said:

I see RLX is throwing up FFWs... so I am guessing LWX may do so later today

Probably in the morning update tomorrow looks like reading the afternoon AFD

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

A slow moving cold front will impact our region Wednesday through 
early Thursday morning. A continued unstable environment with CAPE 
between 2000 and 3000 j/kg will interact with forcing provided by 
the frontal passage to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms 
on Wednesday. PW's are forecast to maximize between 2 and 2.5 inches 
with storm motions being relatively low. Based on the slow nature of 
the frontal passage along with current model trends, it seems the 
main storm/flooding threat will occur later in the day on Wednesday 
and continue into the late evenings periods. The combination of 
forcing from the front along with PW's around 2.3 inches and slow 
storm motions will lead to an increased threat for flooding on 
Wednesday. Although the flooding risk will be the bigger threat for 
Wednesday, a combination of good forcing along the front and 
favorable CAPE will likely mean there will be risk for strong to 
severe storms as well. Global and hires guidance still has some 
disagreements on the overall coverage/location of storms,but they 
all agree that there will a risk for rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per 
hour with storm totals above 4 inches possible. The threat for 
showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain will 
continue into the early morning periods of Thursday.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably in the morning update tomorrow looks like reading the afternoon AFD

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

A slow moving cold front will impact our region Wednesday through 
early Thursday morning. A continued unstable environment with CAPE 
between 2000 and 3000 j/kg will interact with forcing provided by 
the frontal passage to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms 
on Wednesday. PW's are forecast to maximize between 2 and 2.5 inches 
with storm motions being relatively low. Based on the slow nature of 
the frontal passage along with current model trends, it seems the 
main storm/flooding threat will occur later in the day on Wednesday 
and continue into the late evenings periods. The combination of 
forcing from the front along with PW's around 2.3 inches and slow 
storm motions will lead to an increased threat for flooding on 
Wednesday. Although the flooding risk will be the bigger threat for 
Wednesday, a combination of good forcing along the front and 
favorable CAPE will likely mean there will be risk for strong to 
severe storms as well. Global and hires guidance still has some 
disagreements on the overall coverage/location of storms,but they 
all agree that there will a risk for rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per 
hour with storm totals above 4 inches possible. The threat for 
showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain will 
continue into the early morning periods of Thursday.

Being out of town last week and having missed all the multi round fun you guys had, hoping tomorrow is somewhat similar. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today is the 7th 95+ at DCA.  Since the move to the current river location, the long-term average is ~9, so we are probably ahead of pace by a bit, but it is going to start getting tougher to achieve climatologically after this nice cooldown.  By all accounts, this is a very average summer.  Plain, boring mid-Atlantic hot and humid.

In the past 20 years, only 5 summers have had >10 days of 95+, but they were some all-timers.  

  • 2012:  29
  • 2010:  27
  • 2011:  24
  • 2016:  23
  • 2019:  15

By the way, 2003 and 2004 had no 95+ days.  

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...