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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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WOW did Logan respond quickly once that brief overcast interruption wafted away ...

88/72 as of the 13:30 ob - notwithstanding validation.     10 after 10 is already an interesting aspect at that site...

FIT 88 as well

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56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS 79 for PWM tomorrow, NAM 73, and NBM 85 :lol: 

This is going to end.

Can't wait....  I'm done.   Cooked to the core and sated with summer lore, it's no longer just a summertime thing sought if perhaps for being missed - we do so in lesser "degrees" than this, anyway.   I don't need 97's jammed down my throat like Homer Simpson strapped to a donut stuffing machine. 

Thankfully ... all synoptic techniques appear we are nearing the doorway that leads into a regime change. 

I'm not sure how confident it is ... but, if things work out this collapses south tomorrow from N to S ... possibly heralded along by convection quasi training along the boundary - that'd be a nice bonus.  Thereafter... the flow is tricky, but sans the western heat releasing.  

It is also coinciding with the perennial exit of the solar max that happens this week.   That's more of an "event horizon" ( one doesn't notice the difference passing through the boundary, but we aren't ever going back -).  That muse means that the 'hot patterns' are not going to get the same wattage of insolation.  If the erstwhile pattern should attempt to reestablish itself, it will be getting less energy from the sun - period. It's a slow reduction so you can cook of course, but it's nicely symbolic that we appear to exit both the pattern and the solar. 

So what's next?    Looks to me like the trough at the end of the week is losing that typical over aggression that the GFS was selling.  Euro too, just less egregiously.  That said, it seems the subtropical footing, overall, is deflating some around this side of the hemisphere, which is interesting on its own.   The westerlies are still focused N, garland around the 60th parallel - more +AO looking... yet, the flow has these meanders or more like "weaknesses" sagging into the regions where it was straight up 588+ dm heights spanning many recent weeks. 

I like referring still to the outmoded PSU E-wall granularity for this sort of example seeking, because by virtue of that coarseness it exposes canvases rather well

image.png.b23c3a6e9c3cd408d76eec42a1e17361.png

That 'sagging' trough is not really a cold transport mechanism at a continental scale, nearly as much as it is more of relaxation in the +anomaly mode.  The deeper annotation much farther N is the main westerlies core, very high ... in fact, even for summer I'd venture that is a bit higher in latitude than normal. 

So what all that means is, it's not abundantly clear if these changes --and the gist of this is agreed upon by all guidance/ens means for the time being - herald in the long slow seasonal change.   Or that summer's back is straining.  I wouldn't think so...?  I think it more reflects an intra-seasonal relax; we should be mindful of reload at some point.  But, it won't be as hot if that happens. 

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3k gets the shallow BD through here this evening, but it mixes out easily tomorrow. The front door front comes through in the afternoon. Probably a lot of thermal gradients around to spark some convection over the next 24hrs...more rain please.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k gets the shallow BD through here this evening, but it mixes out easily tomorrow. The front door front comes through in the afternoon. Probably a lot of thermal gradients around to spark some convection over the next 24hrs...more rain please.

Congrats on the door.

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k gets the shallow BD through here this evening, but it mixes out easily tomorrow. The front door front comes through in the afternoon. Probably a lot of thermal gradients around to spark some convection over the next 24hrs...more rain please.

If folks want to check out this COD loop while it lasts...

Focus along the Maine Coast.  There a pretty clear suggestion of something backing down the coast up there already and it looks aggressive -

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tropical folks probably shouldn't post here :lol: 

That said, even without a hurricane (Gloria '85/Bob '91) we've been on a relative heater with impactful tropical. Setting aside last season (post-tropical Ida and MEHenri), we've had Isaias '20, Sandy '12, and Irene '11. That's not bad for a region with some of the longest tropical return times in the US. 

For most of NNE, Irene is the only impactful TC since Floyd.  We got 4" from Irene but little wind, while Floyd dumped nearly 6" and had gusts into the 40s here, our most recent siggy wind from a TC.
Our white birch is beginning to shed, as is usual by early August.  Can't recall the black birch in NNJ dropping leaves early and we're north of its range here.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If folks want to check out this COD loop while it lasts...

Focus along the Maine Coast.  There a pretty clear suggestion of something backing down the coast up there already and it looks aggressive -

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks like it's getting into a sun filled zone now and although it's popping some Cu inland it's losing that diabatic assist from the rain over C ME. It'll probably start to peter out near the NH border unless we can get some convection firing and moving over the BD.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

For most of NNE, Irene is the only impactful TC since Floyd.  We got 4" from Irene but little wind, while Floyd dumped nearly 6" and had gusts into the 40s here, our most recent siggy wind from a TC.
Our white birch is beginning to shed, as is usual by early August.  Can't recall the black birch in NNJ dropping leaves early and we're north of its range here.

I mean is it worth it to consider 'category return rates' ?   Does that matter?  Does a TS reset the dial to 30 years...etc.

I've often thought about that.   Like, we may get a Cat 3 impact, I dunno...every 30 years or so, unless you get caught in the cookie tin with a depression and that extends your sentence another 30 years. lol. 

And what constitutes an impact -there's that, too.  Bob I thought was a cheater.  It was a Category three that by virtue of striking primarily the Cape, ...gets to count and we don't get one for another 30 years.   What a jip job for storm enthusiasts...

It's been 30 years anyway, just sayn' ...

It kind of exposes a silliness in linear statistical reliance.  Because what counts and doesn't count in each bucket  -you know.   Like, these TS strength coastal rakes, or the one in 500 year Sandy total synopsis ( not so much the intensity of the cyclone at landfall)...etc, must they count the same.

If they do, we are way over budget and are fact way UNDER due.    Where do the statistics end and perception take over in that debate - the latter of course being entirely subjective. 

Another aspect to consider ... if these TC histrionic predictions of increased activity in a warming oceanic world are true, maybe that shrinks the return rate expectation - or should.

Either way we look at it, Long Island and coastal R.I. and SE Massachusetts have not experience a 1938 scenario, since 1938... I time in which comparatively, there is an "order of magnitude" more at stake in terms of population, both material and life, in those regions, that have [apparently] neglected the lessons of 1938.  

It goes without saying ... but, 1938 redux during an integrated oceanic heat content era that likely CC-attributable exceeds that which existed 85 years ago, may even add to that dystopian projection.  

And it doesn't have to be Long Island Express.  I mean, a Category 4 hurricane accelerating toward the NNW coming in ablate to the NJ shore, would jam a 40 foot storm seiche right up the Hudson...

Sandy was far from any perfectly destructive scenario.  It was a lot of deadly unfun - no doubt.  But as incredible as the specter was - that's a piece of shit compared to what's out there.

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like it's getting into a sun filled zone now and although it's popping some Cu inland it's losing that diabatic assist from the rain over C ME. It'll probably start to peter out near the NH border unless we can get some convection firing and moving over the BD.

yup ..that's about my call too -

Also, it's really neat to look out along the arm/ strata bank that extends E of roughly Bar Harbor.  The northern edge is shearing away toward the W, and the southern edge is shearing away toward the E.  Nicely gives a cinema of the circulation manifold around the boundary...

god i'm such a dork

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it's funny looking at the larger regional COD loops of the NE....  the outflow bows are hammering into the heat from the west, while the Maine BD's are eroding from the NE... 

It's like a metaphoric setup for the Visigoths coming over the hills to take down the Roman Empire.   Those inward of the fronts ... oblivious, were still drinking lead tainted wine and engaging "Caligulian" affairs and whatever distracting turpitude ...

Unaware that the world was closing in around them.  

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27 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Tomorrow night into overnight Wednesday looks decent for some downpours. 

I think it’s more Wednesday pm and night if we get anything other than a shower. NNE will get quite a bit tomorrow. This front is going to move exceedingly slow across the region . There will be haves and have nots in relative terms 

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52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k gets the shallow BD through here this evening, but it mixes out easily tomorrow. The front door front comes through in the afternoon. Probably a lot of thermal gradients around to spark some convection over the next 24hrs...more rain please.

Hope there's still some RA if/when the front gets here.  The current RA band was close enough 7-9 AM to sprinkle here but has rotated a bit clockwise, moving the band farther away while hitting Downeast.  Yesterday, many points 30-50 miles to our south got 1/2"-1" from TS, much less one town west, nothing here.  At least the clouds have killed the big heat.  Yesterday's 88/67 is the year's hottest daily mean, and 2nd highest for 25 Augusts here (tops is 78.5 on 8/1/99), though the 90/52 on May 14 remains hottest max, though 6.5° lower mean.

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think it’s more Wednesday pm and night if we get anything other than a shower. NNE will get quite a bit tomorrow. This front is going to move exceedingly slow across the region . There will be haves and have nots in relative terms 

Anything will manage as "relief" behind this extreme.

But the later the arrival the more stale the airmass becomes. Most of us will be well in the 80's "behind the cold front" on Wed. And 90's come back to the region by Thurs.

It's a front that brings us to Normal for a day, and then we're back +AN. Familiar theme as in recent winters. 

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