Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,128
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jdhuffmanhws
    Newest Member
    Jdhuffmanhws
    Joined

August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Lol what is the goofus doing with that bd to start next week?

Which run were you looking at -

I'm asking 'cause I just did a pocket 'n' pen-protector analysis of the last 4 or 5 cycles of both the Euro and GFS. It seems there are actually two correction aspects going on

The first nerdy tedium is that the GFS as of 00z and continuing into the 06z, actually backed off the BD it had pushed to about a EEN-ORH axis, per the earlier 12z run.   That earlier run was attempting to end the heat wave from the NE, while pinching it shut from the NW - i.e., both directions.  The GFS has a particular fondness for running out and setting up means to end warmth - I might add.  ( have a funny private conspiracy that there is an anti CC mole modeler trying to hide it lol -)

The 2nd nerdy tedium thereafter is that compared to the Euro ( which also never had a BD for Monday -), even though BD structure is gone by the 06z solutions... it's vastly sped up the entire baroclinic suppression into and ending the ridge influence entirely, by 18z Monday.  Granted, "New England" is a large area..it's actually got PF in a cold E strata shrouded summit look by dawn...   It's not really a BD by then in the 00z/06z runs...

But either way... it ends up vastly cooler by Tuesday.  It all looks dubious to me frankly.  The baroclinic wall and weak lows and training rains and all that...they parallel the deep layer non-hydrostats, so it's unclear to me how it bodily displaces that entire axis some 300 miles SE of the 12z position .. It just has a bias, albeit subtle, to stretch all horizontals ... Frontal slopes are more oblique and cut too far under ridges - to which a BD would certainly take advantage of that. It also just moves fronts too fast through the flow anyway... owing probably because it also moves S/W too quickly.  If you took any D7 chart in winter, and compared it to the Euro, you'll noticed that the heights on the polarward side of the jets are 3 to 6 dm lower in the GFS... That speeds up the flow, necessarily comparing the two...not by a lot, but it doesn't take much in the time-based integral to end up effecting wave mechanics in terms of time and space. These issues begin to first manifest ...oh so delicately, around the 72 to 96 hour time frame.   

This stuff isn't "every time" or very glaring ...but in a situation like next week .. we're talking about the difference between a saturated cool misty slow moving backside frontal environment, versus one that is offering you guys training correction rains, and us more heat.

I'm interested in how that that resolves... because my life has so much profound meaning of course...  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Is it even really a backdoor though? 

If you care to read...probably not ( don't blame you - ), it isn't modeled as a BD by 00z last night.

- the problem is, if one is going to do substantive analysis and expose the general population to what is really happening, these paragraphs have to be written.  But as an aside, we have a contingency of user/engagement in here, that is more purely 'social-media' motivated and don't care so much for either the necessary vernacular/nomenclature, and/or are just not interested in adjectives and verbs... I think these individuals would make excellent drones in the Star Trekkian "Borg" civilization, because everything is binary served up at nano time with no actual obligation to learning anything gets in the way of instant gratification..  

Anyway, the BD was more an artifact of the previous 2 or 3 cycles.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Can picture Ray doing that. He loves leg day. Just blowing out his bloomers doing squats as testes touch ground and Great Snow taking a peak.

I always shit immediately before squatting, otherwise I run the risk of needing to "freshen up" between sets.

I wonder if there is a meme for that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of pictures,  here is one from my Nest Cam.  This was the July 21rst storm that gave me 1" of rain, hail and the 56mph gust.  We spent a fortune about 10 years ago and put a lightning protection system on the house.  I can enjoy storms much more now knowing that we are protected.

bright lightning.jpg

  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I always shit immediately before squatting, otherwise I run the risk of needing to "freshen up" mid work out.

I wonder if there is a meme for that?

Oh I've seen plenty since the "blah blah blah?   Priceless!"  days...  Then Insta"crap" and other pap on tap became too easy and now that kind of thing is common.   I've seen squatters pass out while 400 lbs straddle their shoulders bending the bar, too.    Some of them are legit funny though...like the "Fail" memes with these idiots that apparently are so strong that "hey y'all look at me! I can pick tings up and pud dem down," but apparently missed out on the inherent fundamentals of gravity and the other laws of common everyday physics... end up narily escaping bodily harm.

Gym failure memes abound for all!   From vomit to explosive projective ass ejecta, to the softer side of 290 lbs of failed weight pinning a bench "pressure" in sleeper hold like a Roman Greco Olympian ... to someone turning up a tread mill to fast and rocking off the end after doing a face plant... you name it -

Humans living inside the industrial bubble ... they are remarkably resilient in the face of what looks on the surface really should be a lot more Darwin Awards than are actually being handed out.

I'm in the gym almost every day in the winter, and half in summers and I've witnessed a lot of just weird people.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you care to read...probably not ( don't blame you - ), it isn't modeled as a BD by 00z last night.

- the problem is, if one is going to do substantive analysis and expose the general population to what is really happening, these paragraphs have to be written.  But as an aside, we have a contingency of user/engagement in here, that is more purely 'social-media' motivated and don't care so much for either the necessary vernacular/nomenclature, and/or are just not interested in adjectives and verbs... I think these individuals would make excellent drones in the Star Trekkian "Borg" civilization, because everything is binary served up at nano time with no actual obligation to learning anything...  

Anyway, the BD was more an artifact of the previous 2 or 3 cycles.

I know there are the cooler temperatures up in Maine and just north of there, but that seemed to be more of a product of stratiform rain which develops along a developing stationary front associated with the frontal system. Then some weird looking mini high pressure at the surface but lots of clouds/moisture in the llvls. I suppose there could be a weak BD signal there given the winds but it seems...fake lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I've seen plenty since the "blah blah blah?   Priceless!"  days...  Then Insta"crap" and other pap on tap became too easy and now that kind of thing is common.   I've seen squatters pass out while 400 lbs straddle their shoulders bending the bar, too.    Some of legit funny though...like the "Fail" memes with these idiots that apparently are strong and can "pick tings up and pud dem down," but apparently missed out on the inherent fundamentals of gravity and the other laws of common everyday physics... 

Gym failure memes abound for all!   From vomit to explosive projective ass ejecta, to the softer side of 290 lbs of failed weight pinning a bench pressure in sleep hold like a Roman Grecho Olympian ... to someone turning up a tread mill to fast and rocking off the end after doing a face plant... you name it -

Humans living inside the industrial bubble ... they remarkably resilient in the face of what looks on the surface really should be a lot more Darwin Awards than are actually being handed out.

I'm in the gym almost every day in the winter, and half in summers and I've witnessed a lot of just weird people.

I have had to the flip the bar a few times while squatting like 3 plates, but not recently...been a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

$8.32 here.....quite muggy out there this morning, hopefully some rain later

74/71

Congrats. My house is in a bad spot for solar. Too much shade. I spoke to sunpower again yesterday and I don’t have a really great option…just an OK one. I can generate 87% of my usage through the system but I wouldn’t see the savings until year 12. If I spend a considerable amount of money to cut down trees, then I have a better shot of seeing the savings by year 8. Regardless, my payments would be greater than my avg eversource bill so it’s really just a hedge electricity costs continue to climb where eventually my solar payments are less than what my avg ES bill would be.
 

My long terms plan was to eventually replace the two AC units and oil tank with a heat pump and electric water heater in addition to going EV with our vehicles so I’d need a bigger/more efficient system at some point to take on the increased usage.

It’s not looking good at the moment. I may have to wait until the tech improves where my shade is not as big of a detriment. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I know there are the cooler temperatures up in Maine and just north of there, but that seemed to be more of a product of stratiform rain which develops along a developing stationary front associated with the frontal system. Then some weird looking mini high pressure at the surface but lots of clouds/moisture in the llvls. I suppose there could be a weak BD signal there given the winds but it seems...fake lol. 

that also relates to my gripe - I feel/observe...- re the GFS having a bias to extend the horizontal coordinates.  The front should not be there in the first place - or ...should be further N... But the GFS extending all the kinematics too far downstream, and ends up "needing" to generate these leading boundaries and that starts the whole thing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have had to the flip the bar a few times while squatting like 3 plates, but not recently...been a while.

Well... if one is serious about training, has spotters and all, or it is a calculated risk to 'push' oneself - which you gotta do - some if that's gotta happen. 

The stuff in these memes though -      :facepalm:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...