Rtd208 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 High for the day yesterday was 94 here. High for the day on Tuesday was 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 7 hours ago, psv88 said: That bullseye is from the tropical storm last year that flooded the Poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 83degs.(74/93) or +5. Reached 87 here at 2pm. yesterday. Today: 82-87, wind n., p. sunny, 70 tomorrow AM. 75*(81%RH) here at 7am. 77* at 9am. 80* at 10:30am. 82* at Noon. 85* at 2pm. 86* at 3pm. 88* at 3:30pm. then went down to 80* about 6pm and now at 8:00pm it is 89*! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be very warm. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.2° Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 9 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: Does the ecmwf seasonal forecast not update? Its a broken record so far. Just curious The seasonal forecast updated on July 1. It updates once per month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Now to illustrate the more recent dry spell 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Now to illustrate the more recent dry spell At least long Island is white lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 18 hours ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave @donsutherland1 We discussed the very strong -IOD event a couple of weeks back, it looks to be having a very significant impact on MJO wave progressions. This may prove to be really important going into winter: What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 14, 2022 Author Share Posted July 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Now to illustrate the more recent dry spell We got officially included in the D0 dry category today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Expect temps to overperform for the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Expect temps to overperform for the next few days. I agree with this. NYC's Central Park probably will not reach 90 this afternoon but IMO there is a 30-40% chance they do reach it. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 the 12z CAMs got better with instability today and have sea breeze storms popping up over the metro this afternoon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 14, 2022 Author Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. Thanks! It all comes down to how much blocking we get. The La Niña influence during the winter is a SE Ridge/WAR pattern. The 20-21 La Niña featured strong blocking that merged with a piece of the WAR east of New England.This allowed 40”+ at Newark. Last winter the SE Ridge/WAR was the dominant pattern. So only parts of Long Island had record January snowfall with the progressive +PNA +AO. The 17-18 La Niña had more blocking than 16-17 so it was snowier. 11-12 was a disappointment since the +EPO ran the table. Our last La Niña when the blocking erased the SE Ridge influence was 10-11 with 60”+ at Newark in just 33 days. It was also the last time we had a cold La Niña winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 84/64 here. Skies mostly clear or clearing. Temps today may overperform and get some folks their first official heatwave. Overall warm the next 5 - 7 days and we will see where the Western Atlantic Ridge winds up by Mon (7/25). Some strong heat next week between Tue (7/19) and Fri (7/22). Storms and rain chances Sun / Tue next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Storms fired up near the Jersey Shore around 1000AM. We'll see if we get some popup down pours this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Storms fired up near the Jersey Shore around 1000AM. We'll see if we get some popup down pours this afternoon. the merged outflow/sea breeze front should be a catalyst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 here comes dewpoint season <3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. Thanks! There's a lot of variability for La Nina cases. 1998-99 had low snowfall and widespread warmth. 2016-17 had above normal snowfall. We're also poised to have a third consecutive La Nina winter, so there are few, if any, relevant cases. Whether or not blocking develops and is sustained will be critical to snowfall prospects. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We got officially included in the D0 dry category today. Northeast Drought Summary Cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated the region. Temperatures for the week were coolest along the northern portions of New York into Maine, where temperatures were 4-5 degrees below normal. Pennsylvania had the warmest temperatures, with departures of 1-2 degrees above normal. The dryness in the region has allowed for drought expansion this week with a new area of moderate drought in western New York and a new area of severe drought in eastern Massachusetts. Abnormally dry conditions were expanded over much of northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey and into southeastern New York. Moderate drought was expanded in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Abnormally dry conditions were adjusted in southern New Jersey and a new pocket of abnormally dry conditions was added to southern Delaware. Most of the dryness was short-term in nature, but there were immediate declines to river and streamflow levels throughout the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Central Park has its first heatwave of the year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I agree with this. NYC's Central Park probably will not reach 90 this afternoon but IMO there is a 30-40% chance they do reach it. WX/PT 89 at 2pm..they should easily at this point, but this is around the time they sometimes flatline or drop slightly while the rest keep climbing. Dry periods are the few times they keep up better with surrounding stations so I think they will.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Central Park has its first heatwave of the year. Well that settles that. I'm at 90, 6th of the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Euro has a decent dose of rain for Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 we need a rainmaker... How a rainmaker saved NYC from drought — and became public enemy No. 1 (nypost.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro has a decent dose of rain for Sunday Hopefully the Euro will be right about that. It's has been a long time since I've seen it this dry here. The grass is brown and leaves are coming down from the trees. The plants in my vegetable garden look stressed even though I'm watering every day. We desperately need rain. Hopefully sunday, but you have to be skeptical in a super dry pattern like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Sunday/ Monday I've heard rain for everyone for a few days..... But I'll agree and believe after it's done. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: the 12z CAMs got better with instability today and have sea breeze storms popping up over the metro this afternoon they were too aggressive with the sea breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 84/67 currently, just got like 30 drops of rain from a little shower that popped up right over me. Only the 2nd time this month for any precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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