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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Agree for sensible weather, but it's a terrible trade-off for the vegetable gardens. As I've increasingly taken up gardening my likening to weather has shifted to "what's best for the plants".

 

Oh I agree. Yesterday was great for my trees. I'd take a few more days like than versus the sunny, low RH days we've had. The evapotranspiration has been off the charts over the last month (for our standards). Although we have so many invasive fungal and bacterial issues now that too much moisture can be a bigger problem. I feel like Stein typing that out...scared of too dry and too wet.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

OKC hit 108 yesterday 

40C in London is probably about the equivalent of 120F (at least) in OKC.  :o

Nice 1.32" drink for the garden.  More just to my west but no complaints, here it was a farmer's RA, some moderate, even very short hveay, but no soil movement.  The 2 cocorahs observers in the NW part of Farmington reported 2.56" and 2.36", and one town farther west (Temple) had 2.48".  Those totals ranked 2/3/4 for the state, but #1 - 4.63" for Brighton Plantation (about 20 miles north of Skowhegan) looks suspicious, will probably get a QC contact.  Next highest for Somerset County was 2.02" in North New Portland, and the reporting town nearest to Brighton, Harmony, had 1.48".
GYX issued a tor warning for west/central York County (Cornish area) at 12:38 AM.  Saw pics of damage in Standish, just to the east, but haven't seen reports of funnels on the ground.

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55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Se flow off of adjacent Europe. Just a big heat dome.

Folks may roll eyes ( for some reason..) but it is still quite analogous to the SW/W heat release phenomenon that takes place across the N/A mid latitudes. Only in the western Europe paradigm ...rotate the dial 90 degrees.

This is/was, as their "big heat" tends to materialize, a N. African heat release.  It was pulled through eastern Iberian Pen region/over the western Med Sea, and given to the anomalous split -flow jet configuration ( the N branch of which is buckled around a NW European ridge), it got pulled into that circulation manifold and ...well, bake human bread time.  

Longer op ed: 

The issue with this event (...other than the notoriety of this being an all-time historic measure ...) is that this type of heat release/delivery mechanism is a phenomenon that has markedly increased in frequency since 2000 - the UK Met office in/with association to science/research attribution studies have been predicting the 40C benchmark for 2050 - but ...those studies pertained to regularity.    

Imho, having this one occurrence, however, is telling when grouping it in with the other NW Europe heat assault aggregate since 2000 - again, a rising number of them.  It is telling because across the board of all climate prediction metrics, the occurrences of x-y-z extremes are taking place sooner than even recent more advanced climate models have been predicting.   So perhaps the operative word is not 'telling,' rather, 'foretelling' 

...Like, yeah... just maybe we won't have to wait until 2050 for 'regularity', not just in those stratospheric UK events, but elsewhere on the planet. Humanity won't have wait so long to prove they are a short-sighted asshole species that tragically ...has the intellectual brain trust to see the future being the douchy irony ( I'm in a bad mood... )   For all the fractured beliefs and denials about climate change to finally topple assumptions - usually... that can't happen without duress ...

The conversation veers at that point hard into climate-sociological anthropology ( and is a fascinating field, where paleo studies show past climate stressing was a huge player in forcing every aspect of human evolution, from physical nature of race to the diversity of cultures)  ... tl;dr. 

But in the future realm, changes are coming to existential reality because the environment it depends upon is inexorably dire - that means, it will have no choice whether people believe in the science warning them or not...  And it won't likey all happen without wars, famine ... standard of living set backs ...  Unless some form of Star Trekian tech utopian suddenly arrives off a well-time historic series of breakthroughs ... humanity is still just in a race that is entirely curbed by our responses to the system feed-backs.  We are not making the rules of the game just yet.. .we are not Kardashev -worthy.  Simple metaphors sometimes are best to clarify when in the weeds, ... but, we are a curiously clever monkey that just found a fully loaded AR-15 with it's safety disengaged.  

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

40.2C = 104.36  ...just sayn'

My point is it's in the same ballpark of extreme heat and isn't quite like what the Pac NW had a year or two ago...I lose track of years now since they go by so fast. :lol:

An all-time record is an all-time record is an all-time record. I'm not downplaying it nor questioning the climate change factor. They've done 100F more than us now over the last decade.

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56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks may roll eyes ( for some reason..) but it is still quite analogous to the SW/W heat release phenomenon that takes place across the N/A mid latitudes. Only in the western Europe paradigm ...rotate the dial 90 degrees.

This is/was, as their "big heat" tends to materialize, a N. African heat release.  It was pulled through eastern Iberian Pen region/over the western Med Sea, and given to the anomalous split -flow jet configuration ( the N branch of which is buckled around a NW European ridge), it got pulled into that circulation manifold and ...well, bake human bread time.

So...will this veer NW to Greenland and flash-melt a billion tons of ice in one day, like in 2019?

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46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My point is it's in the same ballpark of extreme heat and isn't quite like what the Pac NW had a year or two ago...I lose track of years now since they go by so fast. :lol:

An all-time record is an all-time record is an all-time record. I'm not downplaying it nor questioning the climate change factor. They've done 100F more than us now over the last decade.

...no, it's fair questions -

I think the best way to answer some of that "relative extreme" is to compare it against local climatology - utilizing the Standard Deviation relative to that regions climate scope?

That'd be my approach.  Relative to Pac NW, their event may be of greater SD than what's going on presently over the B. Isles.  It may not...I don't honestly have a scalar clue lol.  But that's why we use math tools...  blah blah.    Intuitively, it seems that it is situation that has to consider the continental/geo-morphological circumstance of each region.    Those limitations(advantages) may mean the Pac NW and the 40.2 at Hethrow may take place along similar return rates, but the SD would be greater in the Pac NW... I mean, they have down sloping.. .also, they are closer to a bake source of plasma in that the GB and surrounding cook regions of the west don't have to traverse the Med Sea...  lot of conditions to consider.

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not just London too. 37C way up in N and NE England is absurd. 

Are there scrolls from former kings talking about previous heat waves? Is there a 250-500 year return period on a setup like this or are we in new territory? I'd assume the Medieval warm period had some great extremes from England to Iceland/Greenland.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Are there scrolls from former kings talking about previous heat waves? Is there a 250-500 year return period on a setup like this or are we in new territory? I'd assume the Medieval warm period had some great extremes from England to Iceland/Greenland.

Maybe we could send Steve there to analyze some layers of mud to find out.

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Hours and hours of mostly light to occasionally moderate rain yesterday with a few breaks in between.  .70" in the bucket.  A nice drink for the garden.

Toasty today, but not what I would consider brutal, we'll see about tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

My point is it's in the same ballpark of extreme heat and isn't quite like what the Pac NW had a year or two ago...I lose track of years now since they go by so fast. :lol:

An all-time record is an all-time record is an all-time record. I'm not downplaying it nor questioning the climate change factor. They've done 100F more than us now over the last decade.

And until 2015 London had never hit 98 in July:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/22/uk/heatwave-july-records-uk-intl-scli/index.html

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