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June 2022


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Front moving through, some scattered storms/showers but not much in the way of rain totals outside some isolated areas, with heavier widespread storms north into NYC and NEw England.  Down towards normal and a little below after the front later tonight (6/27), Tue (6/28) and before warmup starts Wed (6/29).  Most spots will be just shy of the 90 mark but perhaps a quick start for the hotter spots if no clouds or storms as warm push comes through.  For those that didnt start the heat , the hat trick and seasons first heatwave commences Thu (6/30) to close June and open the long weekend.  850s >16c by Thu (6/30), then >18c Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the cold front. Perhaps a mid 90s and some upper 90s in the warm spots Fri and Sat, pending on clouds arrival.  

The front comes through Sat evening and into Sunday (7/3) morning.  Could be some decent rains in the storms as it looks now, we shall see how it goes.  Should see clearing out Sunday and cooler down towards normal.  4th looks mainly dry and warm (near normal).  Wouldnt rule out a spotty showere here and there.  By Tue (7/5) it looks like we could see the warm spots grab 90 or near 90 and continue Wed (7/6) and Thu (7/7).  A bit out there but it looks like the Florida kinda setup warm-hot but possible shower/pop storms type of pattern the middle of next week.  

 

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The warmest departures were limited to NJ this month with the ridge axis to our west and blocking to our north.
 

ISP……+0.1

LGA….-1.1

JFK….+0.2

NYC….-0.6

BDR….-0.5

HPN…..-0.2

POU….-0.8

EWR….+1.8

PHL…..+1.0

 

14843925-FB38-40FA-B7CA-0C3E3660F7AA.thumb.png.59e5906ebb78152cdddb4017073feb64.png

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The warmest departures were limited to NJ this month with the ridge axis to our west and blocking to our north.
 

ISP……+0.1

LGA….-1.1

JFK….+0.2

NYC….-0.6

BDR….-0.5

HPN…..-0.2

POU….-0.8

EWR….+1.8

PHL…..+1.0

 

14843925-FB38-40FA-B7CA-0C3E3660F7AA.thumb.png.59e5906ebb78152cdddb4017073feb64.png

TTN.. -0.8

ABE.. -2.5

MPO.. -1.5

ACY.. -0.7

N. Brunswick.. 0.0

Newark is reflective of a sensor in the middle of miles of concrete & PHL has been running 1-2 degrees warm since last fall. Vast majority of the region is not represented by those positive departures.

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37 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

TTN.. -0.8

ABE.. -2.5

MPO.. -1.5

ACY.. -0.7

N. Brunswick.. 0.0

Newark is reflective of a sensor in the middle of miles of concrete & PHL has been running 1-2 degrees warm since last fall. Vast majority of the region is not represented by those positive departures.

Newark is similar to much of NJ south of the I-78 corridor with the warm departures this month. There is plenty of concrete around LGA and they have a colder than average departure. The warmest part of the region has been near Bradford, PA at +2.9° which is more rural. So just a combination of local and regional effects with the omega block. Newark can heat up very quickly with a warm downslope flow. LGA has had quite a bit of onshore flow influence. Bradford, PA is closer to the ridge axis.

9E5487B6-E232-412B-9DBD-2D7935D15B9D.thumb.png.36a2c624e4d44a604d1bca0ffb96ffe8.png

 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark is similar to much of NJ south of the I-78 corridor with the warm departures this month. There is plenty of concrete around LGA and they have a colder than average departure. The warmest part of the region has been near Bradford, PA at +2.9° which is more rural. So just a combination of local and regional effects with the omega block. Newark can heat up very quickly with a warm downslope flow. LGA has had quite a bit of onshore flow influence. Bradford, PA is closer to the ridge axis.

9E5487B6-E232-412B-9DBD-2D7935D15B9D.thumb.png.36a2c624e4d44a604d1bca0ffb96ffe8.png

 

 Bluewave  This map illustrates perfectly that there is a sensor  issue at Newark.   According to the map it lies on the border of the light green and yellow which is anywhere from negative one to positive 1 departure yet it came in at plus 1.8.  also Trenton and Allentown were closer to the ridge axis as was the rest of Eastern Pennsylvania and they are much cooler than Newark.  Also look at this weekend's high temperatures Newark was 4゚ and 3゚  Higher than any other reporting station on Saturday and Sunday respectively. Look at sacrus high temperatures he posted in the 90* day topic. 

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14 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Bluewave  This map illustrates perfectly that there is a sensor  issue at Newark.   According to the map it lies on the border of the light green and yellow which is anywhere from negative one to positive 1 departure yet it came in at plus 1.8.  also Trenton and Allentown were closer to the ridge axis as was the rest of Eastern Pennsylvania and they are much cooler than Newark.  Also look at this weekend's high temperatures Newark was 4゚ and 3゚  Higher than any other reporting station on Saturday and Sunday respectively. Look at sacrus high temperatures he posted in the 90* day topic. 

Those maps don’t have high enough resolution for each individual station like Newark to show up. They are used as a broad analysis as to where the warmer and cooler departures are located. You have to look at the actual station departures for exact departures. Kind of like the snowfall maps during the winter.

So Newark having a warmer departure than other stations doesn’t mean there is an issue with the sensor. You have to remember that Newark is long term climate site. The nearby Harrison COOP only has observations back to 2000. So it’s not using the full  1991-2020 Climatology period. Stations can always vary from other stations. Newark was the coldest station in January at -4.2 while NYC was -3.4…LGA…-2.7…JFK…-2.5…HPN…-3.4…ISP…-3.1

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those maps don’t have high enough resolution for each individual station like Newark to show up. They are used as a broad analysis as to where the warmer and cooler departures are located. You have to look at the actual station departures for exact departures. Kind of like the snowfall maps during the winter.

So Newark having a warmer departure than other stations doesn’t mean there is an issue with the sensor. You have to remember that Newark is long term climate site. The nearby Harrison COOP only has observations back to 2000. So it’s not using the full  1991-2020 Climatology period. Stations can always vary from other stations. Newark was the coldest station in January at -4.2 while NYC was -3.4…LGA…-2.7…JFK…-2.5…HPN…-3.4…ISP…-3.1

 

 I did notice that Newark was colder in January.   Plus you have mentioned that Newark was cooler  for a few summers  Back in the 2010's.  Maybe it is just the pattern Or the micro climate around Newark.  It just seems that the last several years when I look at temperatures Newark is always running warmer than all the other reporting stations on the national weather service site

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In the wake of today's frontal passage, tomorrow will be mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. Afterward, warmer air will return. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from Thursday through Saturday.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +31.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.188 today.

On June 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.664 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.815 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (0.8° below normal).

 

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I'd say Fridays hot heat is set in stone,  eps, gfs, are iffy about Saturday- Monday, although nyc south/ west areas have been chances of seeing 85-90ish temps.  Though eps and gfs seem identical pushing heat south versus past runs After Friday. 

Pushing it sooner maybe?  Idk .

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

 I did notice that Newark was colder in January.   Plus you have mentioned that Newark was cooler  for a few summers  Back in the 2010's.  Maybe it is just the pattern Or the micro climate around Newark.  It just seems that the last several years when I look at temperatures Newark is always running warmer than all the other reporting stations on the national weather service site

We live in a part to the country where there can be quite a bit of variability between station temperature departures. Our climate zones range from the coastal plain with sea breezes to hills and small mountains. So there is usually at least one station that can vary more than others. Sometimes we get summers like 2010 with a more uniform distribution of departures. But other years the warmest departures will line up either east or west of NYC. 

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End of the week / weekend (Fourth of July)

6/27 12 Euro / 18z GFS

Honing in on the timing of the front and any lingering showers Sunday will be key.  But Heat looks to kick in Thu (6/30) peak Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the front.  Storms/front Sat evening into Sunday.  Clearing Sunday pm / cooler - near normal.  The fourth looks mainly dry and warm : mid - upper 80s, stray shot at 90 in the hot spots.  Could be popup showers overnight into Tue the 6th before a warm Tue.

 Overall, Fri-Sat / Mon the best days Sat evening / Sunday cloud / storms.  Sunday depends on timing of the front could be similar to today 6 hours advanced meaning it could clear by 3pm instead of 8/9 like this evening.

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2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Best example would be 18z gfs, which wants to push the heat south of 12z weekend wise. But has Friday being 90-95, warmer then previous run.  Of course it's only 1 example of a models depiction.

 

Its probably safe to assume the Saturday FROPA will be later than currently shown...most models consensus is near 21-02Z but in summer its rare models at this range are not about 12-18 hours too fast.  If true it probably will lower potential of severe if its Sun AM vs Sat eve

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5 hours ago, binbisso said:

 Bluewave  This map illustrates perfectly that there is a sensor  issue at Newark.   According to the map it lies on the border of the light green and yellow which is anywhere from negative one to positive 1 departure yet it came in at plus 1.8.  also Trenton and Allentown were closer to the ridge axis as was the rest of Eastern Pennsylvania and they are much cooler than Newark.  Also look at this weekend's high temperatures Newark was 4゚ and 3゚  Higher than any other reporting station on Saturday and Sunday respectively. Look at sacrus high temperatures he posted in the 90* day topic. 

Agree

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Morning thoughts…

Today will mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 82°

Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.0°

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