Christmas Storm VI

[oconeexman]

parts of georgia and the upstate could cash in (not as big as farther east but still better than the last few days)

I put the towel back in the closet last night, not giving up on it yet and God do we deserve it! Put me back in that 3" range and dance in the snowy street tomorrow!

[Rankin5150]

Looked at radar trends all night long. This baby is FAR from over. I still think we look out with at least 2" in mine and Foothills area (LOW end).

[burrel2]

hmm... The GFS pops a consolidated 850 low at 1am Sunday just northwest of Columbia,SC. I would think that would mean at least some light snow for the upstate/ NC foothills throughout the night...

[DopplerWx]

Oh sweet lord jesus born in a manger! If the euro shows the bomb again at 12z this forum will explode.

[NEGa]

coming back and then some. where are the rest of the ga peeps although i have been so excited about the return of precip i havent checked soundings....perhaps i should do so

[burgertime]

It will be funny to see what the 18z NAM has to say, doesn't it run off the of some of the 12z GFS data?

[FoothillsNC]

what a comeback run. Looks like its going to bomb NJ , De and NYC after hitting eastern NC really hard. The qpf (again don't trust in this chaotic explosive pattern!) but .50" CLT to wst of CAE , it tapers toward AVL rapildy (upstate to HKY is over .25 and near .50")

.75" from FAY to FLO to RDU then over 1" ne SC and all over very eastern NC.

For GA most is .25 or greater extcpet .50" sav. River region and much less in NW part.

[NEGa]

I put the towel back in the closet last night, not giving up on it yet and God do we deserve it! Put me back in that 3" range and dance in the snowy street tomorrow!

have you checked the gfs snowfall map its putting 3" close to us

[HKY_WX]

pretty increditble differences.it's ALL due to the s/w over the plains trending west on both the nam and gfs. if that continues this will trend back towards a bomb.

[Wow]

If that northern s/w consolidates more with less influence from the front energy, allowing it to sharpen up a bit more(as the Euro indicated in its "bomb" runs) and the southern s/w continues to remain as strong, a near full phasing would occur and we'd all be back in the game. 12z GFS made a HUGE shift back toward a big storm scenario.

There is precedence that the Euro actually verified better in the 3-5 day range than in the short term. Maybe this will be more proof.

[burgertime]

parts of georgia and the upstate could cash in (not as big as farther east but still better than the last few days)

Yea sorry, I'm pretty Carolinacentric. Great run for you guys.

[bingcrosbyb]

You now have to wonder what the Euro will do with the energy. If the vort is stronger than advertised and can actually pop a deepening gulf low with the northern stream backing in from behind, we could be in business. Let the NW trend commence.

[NCWeSU]

Wow... In the triangle we went from maybe a couple inches to maybe 8-10 inches in one run. And I think there's a chance the convection in the gulf could enhance the precip even moreso if the convection does not propagate in advance of the boundary.

And it seems like the GFS is verifying better than the NAM to this point. We'll see what HPC has to say.

[HWY316wx]

coming back and then some. where are the rest of the ga peeps although i have been so excited about the return of precip i havent checked soundings....perhaps i should do so

This is a GOOD run for us! Just hope our temps won't be a problem!

[burgertime]

If that northern s/w consolidates more with less influence from the front energy, allowing it to sharpen up a bit more(as the Euro indicated in its "bomb" runs) and the southern s/w continues to remain as strong, a near full phasing would occur and we'd all be back in the game. 12z GFS made a HUGE shift back toward a big storm scenario.

Pretty amazing what a difference a day makes. Gotta wonder though with the waffling last week if it isn't going to make a huge shift at 18z though, hopefully it's getting a better handle on dynamics though and this is why we're seeing this big move.

[FoothillsNC]

obviously, this is extremely close to the Euro's setup for those 5 or 6 great runs. Almost matches verbatim,,not quite, but about as good as yu'd expect at 5H. Now, lets see how this trends. I have a feeling the central and eastern Carolinas are probably in for something good, but how far west can it get?

[downeastnc]

what a comeback run. Looks like its going to bomb NJ , De and NYC after hitting eastern NC really hard. The qpf (again don't trust in this chaotic explosive pattern!) but .50" CLT to wst of CAE , it tapers toward AVL rapildy (upstate to HKY is over .25 and near .50")

.75" from FAY to FLO to RDU then over 1" ne SC and all over very eastern NC.

For GA most is .25 or greater extcpet .50" sav. River region and much less in NW part.

Ok your making me cry tears of joy, but after the 0Z last night I kinda felt like the big dog or at least his little brother was trying to make a comeback. Its been a long time since we have had a true blizzard down this way and I like what I see......how much stock do you put in the upcoming Euro run or is the GFS/RUC the way to go this close in....

[NCSNOW]

hmm... The GFS pops a consolidated 850 low at 1am Sunday just northwest of Columbia,SC. I would think that would mean at least some light snow for the upstate/ NC foothills throughout the night...

Hard to think, even with this setup, foothills wouldn't get more than whats progged. I think it will shift more west in future runs.

[burgertime]

There is precedence that the Euro actually verified better in the 3-5 day range than in the short term. Maybe this will be more proof.

This is OT, but if it does someone needs to archive the 12z model thread yesterday where everyone was putting the Euro six feet under and raging non stop about how it was the worst model of the century

[NEGa]

Yeah, your area certainly could pick up a nice snow if this trend continues. 1-2" for the metro area if I'm reading the GFS correctly.

i know, my fingernails will be gone by this afternoon lol. i had pretty much decided not to worry about finding the possible snow tonight imby, but now i am having serious reconsiderations. and the family thinks i am completely insane today as they watch my reactions to the models and boards

[NCStateMMY]

Wow... In the triangle we went from maybe a couple inches to maybe 8-10 inches in one run. And I think there's a chance the convection in the gulf could enhance the precip even moreso if the convection does not propagate in advance of the boundary.

And it seems like the GFS is verifying better than the NAM to this point. We'll see what HPC has to say.

It will be interesting to see how the media handles this later this evening if this becomes a trend. Also, I hope boundry layer and warm nose issues don't screw us over hear in Rocky Mount if this turns out to be big!

[strongwxnc]

Just got back from Wal-mart. Not a good idea folks, not a good idea..

anyway, Holy crap in a basket.

GFS snow depth that I have shows parts of ENC on the 6-10 range.

Most of SC - the coastline in the 1-2.5" range

a line though the middle of AL and GA, N show T-2.5"

Lee side in NC gets less than .05"

This is snow figures on teh 12GFS

what a comeback run. Looks like its going to bomb NJ , De and NYC after hitting eastern NC really hard. The qpf (again don't trust in this chaotic explosive pattern!) but .50" CLT to wst of CAE , it tapers toward AVL rapildy (upstate to HKY is over .25 and near .50")

.75" from FAY to FLO to RDU then over 1" ne SC and all over very eastern NC.

For GA most is .25 or greater extcpet .50" sav. River region and much less in NW part.

[Itunis]

obviously, this is extremely close to the Euro's setup for those 5 or 6 great runs. Almost matches verbatim,,not quite, but about as good as yu'd expect at 5H. Now, lets see how this trends. I have a feeling the central and eastern Carolinas are probably in for something good, but how far west can it get?

Are you planning on making a call map later today? No pressure, just curious.

No question this was a great run though. It shows just how complex the system is, and how a small shift in some variables can lead to a vastly different outcome.

[oconeexman]

have you checked the gfs snowfall map its putting 3" close to us

Yep, and as long they keep showing some moisture up here i'm confident it's under done. I'm telling ya we've nearly doubled every forecast here in the upstate so far...Oconee and Rabun have gotten soaked way more than most areas and I'm hoping this one is no difference, that's what i'm hanging my hat on.

Check back in afterwhile...Doin the presents/eating thang at my sisters today, she's a wx nut too so i'll see what the lates looks like afterwhile.

Good day to all!!

[NEGa]

Yea sorry, I'm pretty Carolinacentric. Great run for you guys.

most of us are focussed in our back yards. i will leave it to the mets to do the general se lol

no problem, of course whats so exciting for ga is that we were never really progged for a HUGE storm, but i think 3-5" at one point earlier this week. then went to nothing. now we are coming back with at least a chance. i cant imagine the forum later today if this trend continues

for once lets get a miracle trend in our favor

[burgertime]

While I love this run, we also need to realize at this point it's an outlier, anything could still happen.

[jrips27]

[kanc2001]

it's trending back

congrats Florence, SC ??

[rduwx]

I can't believe this is trending back. This has to be one of the wildest storms I've ever tracked. I felt like I was watching a Falcons game while the gfs was rolling. It's been a while since I've seen a storm where you I'm w/in 36 hrs of the event and I could get nothing to 10".

[Isopycnic]

Mebane Weathernet Futurecast... 12/26/10