weatherfide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro out to 12. Not sure if the model will matter at this point so much for the details, but its got a still closed low at 12 in central Tex. Lot of qpf in Texas around the low. Nice amplification the western Central Canada. at 18 the low is coming off Houston. That doesn't look right. Already it went that far in 6 hours?? What is that like a forward speed of 50 miles an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well farts @30 our low is more south of GFS and not as strong, looks like it might be starting to get sheered out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 still closed near La TX border in 24, witha surface low south of La. Light snow across Tenn Valley, N Ga and western Carolinas At 30, no real low, but broad. It doesn't look like a perfect phase but its hard to tell the details of the shortwave diving in. Its sort of broad. the southern wve looks gone or sheared by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There is no signif difference between the Euro ant 30 hours and the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 by 36, there has been decnt qpf over Ga and western SC and part of NC, this doesnt' look as sharp on the Euro with the backing like the GFS and NAM but its close. Still a surface low in the Gulf and maybe one off ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 @36 it looks like it's loosing steam, this is looking more like the 00z GFS now . I'll be a weenie and say this is not a good range for the Euro, but with the initialization errors on the GFS it doesn't look too good. Disregard me let the Pros handle this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Southern Stream s/w is actually farther east than the 12z GFS position -- GFS had it on Texas/La. border, Euro is in central La. -- I thought faster was good?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 by 36, there has been decnt qpf over Ga and western SC and part of NC, this doesnt' look as sharp on the Euro with the backing like the GFS and NAM but its close. Still a surface low in the Gulf and maybe one off ILM. According to the Euro the winners this run might be ATL-CLT-RDU a I-85 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the closing off 5H is too postitively tilted in the Ohio Valley to really help spark a big developing low in the Southeast, but the QPF is still pretty good in GA and most of SC by 36 hours. Its almost teh same look as GFS not quite. The important detail is the backside of the trough, and who knows which model is going to get that right, it makes all the differnce in teh world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 According to the Euro the winners this run might be ATL-CLT-RDU a I-85 special. .34 here through 0z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Southern Stream s/w is actually farther east than the 12z GFS position -- GFS had it on Texas/La. border, Euro is in central La. -- I thought faster was good?!?!? Sometimes faster is good but if the southern stream is too fast, then the northern stream may not capture at all. I know this sounds weird but I really like the general trend of the 12z model suite. None are predicting a bomb compared to the Euro of a couple days ago. But like foothills stated earlier, this may turn into a nice little Christmas event for somebody and at least some snow for a larger area. Maybe just maybe as Santa comes rolling in tonight he'll bring us all a special present in the form of another westward trend in the model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 at 54 its east w/ just light precip in Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 .31 here through 0z SUN Looked like around 3z on Sunday a giant glob of moisture might pass over Gastonia and CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That sounds great. Also, Looks wetter this of the QC. Right QC ? That is what Im seeing. According to the Euro the winners this run might be ATL-CLT-RDU a I-85 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks pretty good to me -- I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Burger you got QPF for the ATL area? probably around .20 - .30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This run stays a bit too positively tilted for any big snow in the SE except in eastern NC and maybe NE SC. Still looks like a very good snow shower event over a lot of north GA Xmas night and AM Sunday. A ton of snow should fall at the higher peaks of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 According to the Euro the winners this run might be ATL-CLT-RDU a I-85 special. Yep, the angle of the cutoff at 5H is pos. tilt from GA to NY so tht means the low develops too far off shore, but by then the intial moisture belt pivoted through Ga and up into western and central Carolinas, so we stay in duration snow . Hard to say about this run, i don't prefer using ECM for an event this dynamic at this 24 to 36 hour range, but it may be right at 5H. Any small error though , like everyone is saying, means a ton of difference. QPF part of western and northern central SC are over .50" and from eastern Alabama northeast through GA and the Carolinas is .25" to 50" except nw and north central NC is less than .25". Also very east NC gets greater than .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Burger you got QPF for the ATL area? Actually if possible QPF for a list of cities would be helpful if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 probably around .25 - .35. Some of that may be rain though, a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yep, the angle of the cutoff at 5H is pos. tilt from GA to NY so tht means the low develops too far off shore, but by then the intial moisture belt pivoted through Ga and up into western and central Carolinas, so we stay in duration snow . Hard to say about this run, i don't prefer using ECM for an event this dynamic at this 24 to 36 hour range, but it may be right at 5H. Any small error though , like everyone is saying, means a ton of difference. QPF part of western and northern central SC are over .50" and from eastern Alabama northeast through GA and the Carolinas is .25" to 50" except nw and north central NC is less than .25". Also very east NC gets greater than .50" You would have to believe FFC will be putting out advisories/watches with the afternoon update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 probably around .20 - .30. Thanks dude! From FFC at 1:02... UPDATE... FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 00Z RUNS...AND WILL WAIT TO LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST AS FAR AS SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF NOW...FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 looking like east tenn and wnc could get most snow when you include the wrap around after the initial event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like Metrolina is the winners with this run(.4-.5) with areas like Rutherfordton, GSP, HKY coming in with close to or right at a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This run stays a bit too positively tilted for any big snow in the SE except in eastern NC and maybe NE SC. Still looks like a very good snow shower event over a lot of north GA Xmas night and AM Sunday. A ton of snow should fall at the higher peaks of the Apps. The GFS also had that stationary axis of precip stretching for ATL right through and up 85 through southern NC to CLT, so this run also has that. It looks likely because when the first part of the northern energy gets here, and begins to stall and wait for backside energy to capture the gulf low, that area of snow should continue imo, steady for the 85 corridor. The only differnce for eastern sections this run is the low doesnt' devlop too good to get the eastern halve of Carolinas. But both models have good snow ATL to CLT region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A lot of cliff diving in the Northeast right now- this run screws everyone up there except Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You would have to believe FFC will be putting out advisories/watches with the afternoon update... I don't know. BMX says boundary layer tempteratures could be very problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GFS also had that stationary axis of precip stretching for ATL right through and up 85 through southern NC to CLT, so this run also has that. It looks likely because when the first part of the northern energy gets here, and begins to stall and wait for backside energy to capture the gulf low, that area of snow should continue imo, steady for the 85 corridor. The only differnce for eastern sections this run is the low doesnt' devlop too good to get the eastern halve of Carolinas. But both models have good snow ATL to CLT region. Will this really be all snow though? I have some doubt on that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Def a trend wetter on the 12 gfs and the 12 euro.. Thanks Man Looks like Metrolina is the winners with this run(.4-.5) with areas like Rutherfordton, GSP, HKY coming in with close to or right at a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looked like around 3z on Sunday a giant glob of moisture might pass over Gastonia and CLT. Amen Qc! Looking at the radar, this will most likely be certain FINALLY after 8 or 9 yes from WWB we get piranha on Christmas! HELLL YEAH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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