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Christmas Storm VI


Cold Rain

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FFC is now saying rain/snow mix will change to rain Saturday afternoon, whereas earlier they were saying it would change to snow Saturday afternoon.

They have flip flopped completely on that and it really makes no sense since they should know areas in the heavier precip probably wouldn't warm enough. However, this run of the nam clearly shows it goes from a rain to snow...or starts as all snow and/or a mix. If there is a good band of precip like the nam is showing, that is exactly what should happen.

Looking at the upper level maps, It sure looks like this is sooo close to being something more significant.

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I thought the 18z NAM was based off the 12z GFS somehow?

The NCEP guys said it uses both its previous run and the previous run of the GFS for initialization (a "hybrid" scheme).

That said, the 12z Canadian was further west, as is the 12z SREF. So even if the GFS was out to lunch by being too far west, the trend is definitely apparent. I think even the UKMET has come west some.

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They have flip flopped completely on that and it really makes no sense since they should know areas in the heavier precip probably wouldn't warm enough. However, this run of the nam clearly shows it goes from a rain to snow...or starts as all snow and/or a mix. If there is a good band of precip like the nam is showing, that is exactly what should happen.

Looking at the upper level maps, It sure looks like this is sooo close to being something more significant.

What is encouraging to me is the nice band of >.1" QPF that falls after 850s are well below freezing (and sfc temps are hopefully pretty low). As you pointed out earlier, heavier precip should hopefully get us to wetbulb down more than the models are showing.

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ha ha I love it. The southern stream once again holds on a longer period, now all the way to Fl. Panhandle before the model goes *poof* with it. Also, good backing in easern Ala, and Ga, with a good snow axis that probaly stays put from eastern Alabama across most of N Ga (down to ATL but not sure on temps) and across the western Carolinas. From this point, we 've got good backside digging, probably even better lookng than before , so I'm still thinking the models are UNDERFORECASTING the surface low and the moisture expansion across most of eastern Al, most of GA as well as most of the Carolinas. Nothings really changed in my mind. The door is very much open to phasing and the surface low in the gulf getting pulled northeast across Fl. panhandle. So, who knows how the precip shield will end up looking, but I think if your in GA near the 20/85 and western Carolinas teh precip should arrive. Cant say how heavy yet.

Keep it up and you're going to talk this into being a sweet deal here in the 3 corners region!

Bring back the animation ROBERT!

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Ummmm. Looky here. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/index_500_l_loop.shtml

The 19z RUC holds the 5H in Tex. closed until LA border, not really going into the gulf. The last frame looks like the phase is going to begin and the digging northern stream is about to suck it up and begin to blossom moisture with a neutral tilt or neg tilt trough. This is BIG news.

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ha ha I love it. The southern stream once again holds on a longer period, now all the way to Fl. Panhandle before the model goes *poof* with it. Also, good backing in easern Ala, and Ga, with a good snow axis that probaly stays put from eastern Alabama across most of N Ga (down to ATL but not sure on temps) and across the western Carolinas. From this point, we 've got good backside digging, probably even better lookng than before , so I'm still thinking the models are UNDERFORECASTING the surface low and the moisture expansion across most of eastern Al, most of GA as well as most of the Carolinas. Nothings really changed in my mind. The door is very much open to phasing and the surface low in the gulf getting pulled northeast across Fl. panhandle. So, who knows how the precip shield will end up looking, but I think if your in GA near the 20/85 and western Carolinas teh precip should arrive. Cant say how heavy yet.

as widre said (and i had also considered) do you think the bad info for the 12z runs are incorporated into this one? would they have been able to 'fix' the errors if they found them for the next runs (ones coming out now)

obviously this is a dream day-before a storm for many of us, but could also be a huge disappointing heart breaker if the models are this far off again :scooter:

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Ummmm. Looky here. http://www.nco.ncep....00_l_loop.shtml

The 19z RUC holds the 5H in Tex. closed until LA border, not really going into the gulf. The last frame looks like the phase is going to begin and the digging northern stream is about to suck it up and begin to blossom moisture with a neutral tilt or neg tilt trough. This is BIG news.

Do we trust the RUC that far out? What are its verification scores? What parts does it do well with? 500 or surface? etc. Just b/c the model shows it, doesn't mean I buy it.

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nam 850 low. best snow is usually just NW.

Keep it up and you're going to talk this into being a sweet deal here in the 3 corners region!

Bring back the animation ROBERT!

The Euro might of had it right all along. Whoa boy, check out the new RUC at 5H. Awesome potential there. The Tex. wave scoots east just in the Knick of time before getting sucked into northern stream, which is digging handsomely, by the way.

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Ummmm. Looky here. http://www.nco.ncep....00_l_loop.shtml

The 19z RUC holds the 5H in Tex. closed until LA border, not really going into the gulf. The last frame looks like the phase is going to begin and the digging northern stream is about to suck it up and begin to blossom moisture with a neutral tilt or neg tilt trough. This is BIG news.

Thx, was waiting on someone to jump on the RUC and the look that resembles the old EURO!

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Yes, but all of Atlanta is absolutely zilch,,,,,,:arrowhead::arrowhead:

These types of posts are useless and it's becoming a pattern with you. You are Totally wrong. Nam has atlanta changing over by mid afternoon with over 0.10 falling afterwards.

What is encouraging to me is the nice band of >.1" QPF that falls after 850s are well below freezing (and sfc temps are hopefully pretty low). As you pointed out earlier, heavier precip should hopefully get us to wetbulb down more than the models are showing.

Here is atlanta's 27 hour sounding, all snow by then and after.

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 21Z SAT 25 DEC 10
Station: KATL
Latitude:   33.65
Longitude: -84.42
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   116                                                                 
SFC  981   274   1.2   0.3  94  0.9   0.8 275   3 275.9 276.6 275.0 286.8  3.99
 2  950   530  -0.2  -0.2 100  0.0  -0.2 273   9 277.0 277.7 275.6 287.9  3.96
 3  900   962  -1.1  -1.2  99  0.1  -1.2 269  13 280.4 281.0 277.3 291.2  3.89
 4  850  1417  -2.5  -2.8  98  0.3  -2.6 253  19 283.5 284.2 278.6 293.9  3.67
 5  800  1898  -2.9  -3.3  98  0.3  -3.1 255  28 288.0 288.7 280.8 298.9  3.76
 6  750  2409  -3.7  -4.1  97  0.4  -3.8 251  38 292.6 293.3 282.9 303.7  3.77
 7  700  2952  -5.7  -6.3  96  0.6  -5.9 249  44 296.2 296.8 284.0 306.4  3.42
 8  650  3530  -8.4  -9.1  95  0.7  -8.7 246  48 299.5 300.0 284.8 308.5  2.96

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The Euro might of had it right all along. Whoa boy, check out the new RUC at 5H. Awesome potential there. The Tex. wave scoots east just in the Knick of time before getting sucked into northern stream, which is digging handsomely, by the way.

Ummmm. Looky here. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/index_500_l_loop.shtml

The 19z RUC holds the 5H in Tex. closed until LA border, not really going into the gulf. The last frame looks like the phase is going to begin and the digging northern stream is about to suck it up and begin to blossom moisture with a neutral tilt or neg tilt trough. This is BIG news.

[weenie]valium? anyone have any tranquilizers :lmao: jeesh this is too much stress for any day, let alone christmas eve[/weenie]

looks like there are now solid wwa from ne alabama through the carolinas - if the anything even remotely like the euro was showing earlier this week verifies, it will be crowned "Emperor for Life"

Here is atlanta's 27 hour sounding, all snow by then and after.

wow, that would be amazing if most of n ga into the carolinas got an inch or so on christmas. that would be a first time occurrence for most people

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Well, from the records I have kept with temperatures and verifying to the NAM/GFS, the GFS actually has the lows better, then I take the average of the GFS/NAM with a little more emphasis on the NAM for highs. I look at the RUC every once in a while. I use the WSI RPM model to help with cloud cover within the next 48 hours, and right now it has the clouds from Auburn to La Grange coming in around 7/8 in the morning. If this verifies, then temperatures will be at their lowest, and it has been my experience that temps won't warm up all that much. Now comes the strength of the rain to get those temps down near freezing at the surface for snow/sleet. Frankly, I feel that from say.... Columbus to Macon (maybe a little south) north to Atlanta could see more sleet than snow, but MAINLY rain, as temps below 850 are freezing, but slightly above freezing at 700.

Thank you, sir! Good luck on your call. Glad it's you and not me!! One thing about Ga. from Macon up, is it can all change in a heart beat, and usually does in these cases. Tony

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They have up my totals a little 2 inches ? :weight_lift:

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE

OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE

WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

.CHRISTMAS DAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW

ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT

AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE

EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR

NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS

10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE

EVENING. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 19. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS

7 ABOVE.

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potential. That is all.

yes...and while i do not know the scores, i recall several storms where the ruc did pick up a lot of light snow in ne ga and the western carolinas that were not forecasted and did not show up on the radar, but was most definitely there. of course this was like in the process of the storm and not necessarily hours in advance

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yes...and while i do not know the scores, i recall several storms where the ruc did pick up a lot of light snow in ne ga and the western carolinas that were not forecasted and did not show up on the radar, but was most definitely there. of course this was like in the process of the storm and not necessarily hours in advance

Ruc usually, in my experience over the past few years, does excellent at handling the mesoscale features that can make or break a storm, like this one. I would trust it over the gfs/nam/euro/ggem because of it's superior resolution and how it has handled storms in the past. It looks good to me and I would much rather have the ruc on my side than not.

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WSWatch for coastal counties of NC...

336 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING

THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE

FROM JACKSONVILLE TO NEW BERN TO SWAN QUARTER TO NAGS HEAD. EAST

OF THAT LINE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ONE INCH OR LESS.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO

SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS AND

SOUTH COAST RAIN WILL NOT CHANGE TO SNOW UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK

SUNDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY. THE SNOW

WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: A WET SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER

SNOW AMOUNTS LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES MAY BE AFFECTED.

* WINDS: WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH 10 MPH OR

LESS. ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15

MPH...EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 25

MPH.

* TEMPERATURES: LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID

30S...EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE

IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ALONG THE OUTER

BANKS.

* WIND CHILL: WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON

SUNDAY.

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Thank you, sir! Good luck on your call. Glad it's you and not me!! One thing about Ga. from Macon up, is it can all change in a heart beat, and usually does in these cases. Tony

You're welcome! As has been discussed on here by Lookout and others, the GFS 12Z initiation being messed up is worrisome for this event.

Also, this event will be my first such winter weather event in the Deep South here. The sleet/freezing rain a week and a half ago sprung up on us, and again the clouds moving in during the morning hours (right around sunrise), and they stuck around for the duration of that day allowed sleet to happen through my viewing area. I have a feeling this will be a similar scenario for us here in Central GA! Though overnight it has the possibility of a few snowflakes being seen. I'll keep everyone updated to my thinking for Central Georgia/East Alabama.

Thoughts on the RUC, which foothill just showed... This is getting to be interesting, the more neutral tilt is starting to be seen, and we could see quite a bit of a rain shield over the area. Temps will be the main issue across West Central Georgia/ East Central Alabama.

It's going to be fun to see!

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BMX AFD

FXUS64 KBMX 242039AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

239 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR REMAINS

ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT FAR

AWAY AS PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE.

WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL

QUICKLY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS

THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO DRY LAYER OF AIR BELOW

850MB...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL BE LIGHT.

DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE

SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IN CASE OF LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN DEVELOPS.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND MID LEVELS COOL BELOW THE ZERO

ISOTHERM. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY JUST TO

THE SOUTH OF RAIN/SNOW LINE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT EVEN THROUGH

TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN...

TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO

CAUSE SNOW TO PARTIALLY MELT...AND RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW

MIXTURE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS

OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL

PUSH SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE

MONTGOMERY-AUBURN AREAS BY SUNSET. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL SATURDAY

NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL

ALABAMA. THERE MAY BE TRAVEL ISSUES SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES

FALL TO FREEZING...BUT NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL HELP DRY OUT

ROAD CONDITIONS QUICKLY. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY AND

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT

PROBABLY NOT OF ENOUGH DURATION TO ACCUMULATE.

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You're welcome! As has been discussed on here by Lookout and others, the GFS 12Z initiation being messed up is worrisome for this event.

Also, this event will be my first such winter weather event in the Deep South here. The sleet/freezing rain a week and a half ago sprung up on us, and again the clouds moving in during the morning hours (right around sunrise), and they stuck around for the duration of that day allowed sleet to happen through my viewing area. I have a feeling this will be a similar scenario for us here in Central GA! Though overnight it has the possibility of a few snowflakes being seen. I'll keep everyone updated to my thinking for Central Georgia/East Alabama.

Thoughts on the RUC, which foothill just showed... This is getting to be interesting, the more neutral tilt is starting to be seen, and we could see quite a bit of a rain shield over the area. Temps will be the main issue across West Central Georgia/ East Central Alabama.

It's going to be fun to see!

I agree. The one thing I think is for sure based on RUC, GFS, NAM and ECMWF is that there is going to be a slow moving axis of precipitation in the morning that stretches from Louisiana across Al, GA and the western Carolinas, and that axis is there for a good reason. The backing flow and the northern stream stalls so PVA gets strung out from the incoming phase in LA and the combined digging northern stream, so in my opinion, somewhere in that Axis is going to possibly get some very suprising snow amounts. I don't know how heavy it will be , but the more time that goes along, the better I think the southenr wave is going to be quite generous on the moisture shield for that above mentioned areas. This is a dynamic setup .

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You're welcome! As has been discussed on here by Lookout and others, the GFS 12Z initiation being messed up is worrisome for this event.

Also, this event will be my first such winter weather event in the Deep South here. The sleet/freezing rain a week and a half ago sprung up on us, and again the clouds moving in during the morning hours (right around sunrise), and they stuck around for the duration of that day allowed sleet to happen through my viewing area. I have a feeling this will be a similar scenario for us here in Central GA! Though overnight it has the possibility of a few snowflakes being seen. I'll keep everyone updated to my thinking for Central Georgia/East Alabama.

Thoughts on the RUC, which foothill just showed... This is getting to be interesting, the more neutral tilt is starting to be seen, and we could see quite a bit of a rain shield over the area. Temps will be the main issue across West Central Georgia/ East Central Alabama.

It's going to be fun to see!

Not too worried about the 12z GFS issue with initialization as the RUC seems to match the GFS very closely both in current observations as well as out to 18 hours. Since the RUC matches the 12z GFS it gives it much more credibility IMO. I'm not a met but to me that seems to lessen the worries of the 12z GFS being off. Plus we have seen the models trending west today, the SREF, GGEM, UKMET all did and I suspect the Euro was a little further west too although I haven't looked at it. All in all looks good for the area especially eastern nc.

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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA301 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON WESTERN SLOPES ANDHIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY....A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OFF THESOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONSTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BRING MORE ACCUMULATINGSNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA ANDNORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONSSATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HIGHWINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THEMOUNTAINS FALLING BELOW ZERO.NCZ001-018-250415-/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0009.101225T2300Z-101227T2300Z/ASHE-WATAUGA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE301 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. CONTINUING ACCUMULATIONS OF DRIER SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.* WINDS...WILL INCREASE SUNDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO DURING HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ON SUNDAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.* TEMPERATURES...WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.* WIND CHILL...WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS

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