Christmas Storm VI

[FoothillsNC]

just finishing up sausage balls so not much time before I leave but its probably better to start focusing on RUC and trends now rather than actual output from NAM and GFS runs. By the way, at 18 hours the new GFS still has a closed low in western LA. This thing is futhern northe and stronger, for longer. The trend keeps on!

[burrel2]

At 12hrs, the northern jet is really bending in towards the rockies, the flow almost has a Southwesterly component to it... I think this is gonna be the best run yet.

[WidreMann]

Sorry about the initialization error jokes. I'll keep them to the banter thread .

I think it's hard to argue that there isn't a trend. GGEM went more west (still too far offshore, though), RGEM majorly west, as have the NAM and GFS. Pretty soon, it may just be the Euro and Ukie all alone in an OTS solution.

[rduwx]

at 27 things look good in my eyes....looks phase has started...can anybody confirm?

[shaggy]

just finishing up sausage balls so not much time before I leave but its probably better to start focusing on RUC and trends now rather than actual output from NAM and GFS runs. By the way, at 18 hours the new GFS still has a closed low in western LA. This thing is futhern northe and stronger, for longer. The trend keeps on!

I'm always concerned for ptype problems since I have been burned so many times in the past. I can't help but get that little fear in my gut anytime I see a stronger further north solution. I am hoping for you guys to get in on the action but still concerned it could come at my expense. I really haven't seen much talk about temps east of 95 if this thing bombs and comes further west and that just adds to my fears.

[Wow]

just finishing up sausage balls so not much time before I leave but its probably better to start focusing on RUC and trends now rather than actual output from NAM and GFS runs. By the way, at 18 hours the new GFS still has a closed low in western LA. This thing is futhern northe and stronger, for longer. The trend keeps on!

robert do you think this is going towards a full phase event with the southern jet ?

[Cheeznado]

24 looking better, northern short wave further west, will we actually get a phase? If so I will look like a fool, but if I bust and we get snow, its all good.

[FoothillsNC]

HA, southern vort still nice intact over south of New Orleans at 24 !! Good digging on the west side with northern stream. by 30 hour, awesome look at 5H. 1012 low in west Fl panhandle, Southeast is covered in precip, esp. Ga and Carolinas.

[beanskip]

1012 low in Gulf at 24 hours -- stronger than even the 12z run.

[Wow]

precip much heavier over NO at 24 compared to 12z

[strongwxnc]

18NAM Bufkit gives arden 3"

[bingcrosbyb]

For what it's worth, 18z RGEM is MUCH further west. By a few hundred miles at least. Completely different from all previous runs.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_024.jpg

[rduwx]

33 looks good...not near as stretched out crossing fl panhandle...this is going to be the best gfs run yet

[FoothillsNC]

robert do you think this is going towards a full phase event with the southern jet ?

Good grief, 1008 on Ga, Fl border at 33 and awesome look at 5H. I really like this run! Its trending the way the Euro was for so long. I think we thought it could do that, and the precip is looking good. Holy smokes, its about to cutoff at 5H somehwer in the Southeast. South flow in GA at 36. Wow!!!!!

[FoothillsNC]

ummm bombing in progress At Savannah at 36. Down to 1004. Most of GA is coverd except nw and n. and west areas, close call ATL. By 39 hour its 1000 off CHS but the precip shield doesnt blossom like it should show at 5h

Again, awesome trend guys.

[Itunis]

Here is the total QPF out to 30. Far N GA looks to stay almost all snow, while it looks like the ATL area gets some rain followed by a changeover and an inch or so of snow, just a rough estimate.

[FoothillsNC]

Well after all the excitement, I just knew the Qpf would be much higher, for some reason its about the same it appears, but i haven't studied it much. Still if we get the 5H look with that much digging that far west, and considering the surface low is well in tact in LA and near Mobile, I think GA and the Carolinas are in Business.

[beanskip]

850 low pops over Columbia!!!!

[Wow]

holy moly.. it's almost back

[BullCityWx]

Well after all the excitement, I just knew the Qpf would be much higher, for some reason its about the same it appears, but i haven't studied it much. Still if we get the 5H look with that much digging that far west, and considering the surface low is well in tact in LA and near Mobile, I think GA and the Carolinas are in Business.

actually appears to be 3/4ths of the QPF of the last run.

[rduwx]

actually appears to be 3/4ths of the QPF of the last run.

That doesn't make a lot of since to me. We have an earlier phase and stronger system. I would have to think the qpf would be higher.

[FoothillsNC]

The poor, poor GFS. It shows a strenghtening low pressure from the western Gulf of mexico and crossing the Ga/FL border and already 1000 mb at SAV and still deepening rapidly, yet puts down only .40" ATL .45" GSP and .50" in CLT , looks a little low

Yet, we'll take it. That track and pressure is great, and I'm positive the inverted trough extending from SAV to AVL is going to do wonders for the Upstate and foothills of NC to keep the snow bands going. Oh, closed 5H at Crossville TENN. at 42 hours. And the trends keep on and on and on.

Great run.

[Wow]

actually appears to be 3/4ths of the QPF of the last run.

looks about the same for the CLT area. more over NW NC. 0.5" line cutting through I-85. The upper air suggest a lot more though.

[Lookout]

I am officially excited now

Inutis about those temps, I think they are too high. Gfs is much colder here at 12z tomorrow, at freezing, and with precip moving in, it's hard to picture the warming it shows tomorrow. Regardless, the 0.50 is very close to my location...Is it possible I might end up with more than an inch?

Upper levels of the gfs look great and it's Amazing turn of events

[strongwxnc]

Correct, as I see it also.

Going to be a long night on the Phone for some folks (like me) who will not be at the computer for a little while.

Great disco folks!!!

looks about the same for the CLT area. more over NW NC. 0.5" line cutting through I-85. The upper air suggest a lot more though.

This should turn it around for all now man. Lookout is stoked.

I am officially excited now

Inutis about those temps, I think they are too high. Gfs is much colder here at 12z tomorrow, at freezing, and with precip moving in, it's hard to picture the warming it shows tomorrow. Regardless, the 0.50 is very close to my location...Is it possible I might end up with more than an inch?

Upper levels of the gfs look great and it's Amazing turn of events

[KO0588]

18z GFS precip across the whole country looks lessened compared to the 12z GFS.

[Cheeznado]

I am preparing my dish of Christmas crow- Oh these wacky models! The Euro has the storm, loses it completely and now it might verify after all? I give up This profession is very frustrating at times....

[WidreMann]

Now we wait for 00z. If 00z is good, I say the storm is back on for sure.

[Wow]

18z GFS precip across the whole country looks lessened compared to the 12z GFS.

let's see then.. this is up to 48 hrs

18z

12z

[FoothillsNC]

dont' sweat the qpf guys. This 5h evolution is really a dream. Now on the west shield in far western NC theres going to be a shutoff, same for NW GA, but all those areas get snow initially. The heavy bands should set up around Athens to CAE to GSP CLT to RDU . It starts snowing here tomorrow mornng and doesnt' end til late Sunday night. Can't beat that!