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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be an onshore flow warm up with a sharp temperature gradient between NJ and the Long Island South Shore. May 1996 was and offshore flow event with Newark and Minolta Long Island reaching 99°. So this is the benchmark for extreme May heat across the area. There  were a few COOP sites in NJ that hit 100°. But no major sites that I was able to find.

 

Monthly Data for May 1996 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99
NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 99
NY OCEANSIDE COOP 98
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 98
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 97
NY MINEOLA COOP 97
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 97
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 97
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 97
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96
NJ CRANFORD COOP 96
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 96
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 96
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 96
NJ WAYNE COOP 96
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 96
NY SUFFERN COOP 96
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 96
NY WEST POINT COOP 95
NY WEST NYACK COOP 95
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 95


 

Monthly Data for May 1996 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
PA PALMERTON COOP 100
NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 100
NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 99
NJ PEMBERTON COOP 98
NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 98
PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 97

I feel like May 1996 was the last remnant of the hot summer of 1995, because after that it was just humid warm weather, we didn't even hit 90 again until the last day of August.  In August 1995 we didn't have any measurable rain until the last day of August.  Such radically different summers.

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be similar to 1996 away from the sea breeze in NJ. But the flow will be more onshore for our area. That event had westerly flow right out to Eastern Long Island. 
 

Saturday continues to look like easily the hottest day of the
stretch. 850mb temperatures rise to around +19 to +22C, and the H5
height hits an impressive 590 dam. These are near the maximum values
recorded in the regional area for this time of year per SPC sounding
climatology. With large scale subsidence in place, it also looks
like we will see abundant sunshine to fully take advantage of this
environment. Little change was made to the temperature forecast,
which is a high confidence forecast as evidenced by there being only
2 to 3 degrees of spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles.
Highs in the mid to locally upper 90s are expected, at or above
daily records and in some cases near all time May monthly records.

Looks like urban areas could be in the 90s on Sunday too?

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like urban areas could be in the 90s on Sunday too?

I noticed some forecasts have gone in that direction. Not everyone though, for what it's worth I was watching ch 7 this morn Sam Champion sounded skeptical of that. NWS forecasts for me in the middle of the Bx has went to 91 on Sat and 92 on Sun. Their rain chances on Sun have dropped to 30% as well.

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The GFS finally steps off the top of MT. OLYMPUS........moves away from scaping 100.

Well I forgot to mention it again---that today is the 60th anniversary of the highest T in May     99 in 1962.      The day apparently started at 57.      Anyone have the hourly figures for that day in Central Park?

Thank You.......uncle W !!

1652961600-t5RXVMBOzVU.png

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15 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The GFS finally steps off the top of MT. OLYMPUS........moves away from scaping 100.

Well I forgot to mention it again---that today is the 60th anniversary of the highest T in May     99 in 1962.      The day apparently started at 57.      Anyone have the hourly figures for that day in Central Park?

1652961600-t5RXVMBOzVU.png

IPS-BCFB3D95-0899-4346-94BF-2DC7313126F6.pdf (noaa.gov)

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3 hours ago, dWave said:

I noticed some forecasts have gone in that direction. Not everyone though, for what it's worth I was watching ch 7 this morn Sam Champion sounded skeptical of that. NWS forecasts for me in the middle of the Bx has went to 91 on Sat and 92 on Sun. Their rain chances on Sun have dropped to 30% as well.

I think the rain might be coming Sunday night.  This afternoon's update has 93 for Saturday (to tie the record from 1996) and 92 on Sunday.

 

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The GFS finally steps off the top of MT. OLYMPUS........moves away from scaping 100.

Well I forgot to mention it again---that today is the 60th anniversary of the highest T in May     99 in 1962.      The day apparently started at 57.      Anyone have the hourly figures for that day in Central Park?

Thank You.......uncle W !!

1652961600-t5RXVMBOzVU.png

Lol they have 87 for Monday? I thought Monday was supposed to be much cooler.

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought we were supposed to get very warm again for Memorial Day weekend and perhaps hit the 90s again?

 

Still looks like too much wavelength volatility for any extended warm ups just yet. 
 

 

 

 

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. Temperatures will rise into the 70s throughout much of the region.

Out West, Denver, which saw temperatures rise into the upper 80s today will see showers and rain turn to a heavy snowfall tomorrow night into Saturday.

In the northern Middle Atlantic region, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +13.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.830 today.

On May 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The May 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.440 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

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49 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

That’s not hard to do if the weekend prior has record warmth haha

The warmth around Christmas has been more memorable than Memorial Day in recent years.;)

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I was in Denver in July or August 1987, it was 109° downtown. 70 or so miles west I had to stop and put the (removable) moonroof back in the car because it was 24° and snowing heavily. 15 miles after that it was back to 85° and beautiful. That was fun.

Love those extremes!

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9 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Thats a big flip flop for the models for Memorial  Day weekend. Let's  hope it flops back

The models haven’t been the greatest recently. So we have been  seeing quite a bit of run to run variation. It may be related to the record La Niña for this time of year and developing -IOD. 

 

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  73degs.(62/85) or +8.

Month to date is  60.7[-0.9].        Should be  64 3[+1.7] by the 28th.

Reached 68 yesterday.

Today: 71-76, wind e. to s.,m. cloudy, rain late-till midnight, 67 tomorrow AM.

I will say it again.      The GFS---a model with no Quality Control or Self-Respect.................

1653004800-PknQ2InbTvE.png

59*(90%RH) here at 7am.{ 56 at 1am}   62* at 9am.         67* at 11pm.       63* at 1pm.     68* at 2:30pm.       62* at 4pm   FOG<0.10mi.

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds and fog will give way to some sunshine. Late afternoon or overnight showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s along the Connecticut shore to upper 80s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 74°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 87°

The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region. Many locations away from the water will see their first 90s of the year.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.4°; 15-Year: 73.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.4°; 15-Year: 76.1°

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Heat Advisories for areas north and west of NYC. Also seems as if the thunderstorm potential increased slightly:

As the ridging
attempts to get established and mid level shortwave will begin
to approach and work through from the CWA. This MCC, or what`s
left of it is now progged by most near term guidance to slide
through late in the day and into this evening. There is
uncertainty as to how much this MCC / MCV can maintain itself as
it works east of the Appalachians and closer to the Atlantic
seaboard. The instability and convection should become more
elevated as it works east as it encounter the more stable air
and relatively lower dewpoint / virtual temperature near surface
profile. Look for a thunderstorm / thundershower chance from
west to east as this system pushes through. This will ride
basically north of a warm front down to the south. The remnant
MCC /MCV should then eject to the ENE towards midnight.
Thereafter the warm front approaches and pushes through towards
daybreak Saturday morning. Look for a good deal of clouds and
low level moisture to persist through much of the night until
the warm front can clear the area. Lows will be above normal
with cloud cover in place, along with patchy fog in spots,
especially where rain can occur and moisten the ground
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beyond the heat Sat (May 21) and Sun (May 22) next shot at some quick heat (90s) would be Thu (May 26) as quick surge of heat moves through.  Memorial Day weekend still a bit iffy rain wise.  Heat wise the ceiling looks to be low 80s  (max).  Beyond there slight hint of heat signal in the Jun 4th period GFS and other guidance hints at strong ridge into the GL/OV but could see onshore along coast.   Far out there but something to track as well as any tropical development in GOM/W-FL.

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