Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,276
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    weatherman27
    Newest Member
    weatherman27
    Joined

Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

FYI- BTV is doing an experimental change to its Winter Storm Warning criteria for this season:

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/NWSBurlington_WinterStormWarningExperiment2022.pdf

Quote

Beginning this winter season the National Weather Service Burlington Forecast Office will test a change to the Winter Storm Warning Snowfall Criteria in its County Warning Area of responsibility.  This change is intended to simplify messaging and align snowfall criteria for Winter Storm Warnings more closely based to climatological impacts. There will be no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory snowfall criteria. Historically, the National Weather Service Burlington County Warning Area snowfall criteria has been the following:  6 inches of snow in 12 hours or  9 inches of snow in 24 hours The new experimental criteria for this winter season will no longer consider the time frame. This will allow for a more event driven approach to messaging.   The experimental Winter Storm Warning Snowfall Criteria will be the following:  7 inches of snowfall during a winter storm event 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/7/2022 at 10:02 AM, snowman19 said:

The amount of people already spiking the football on twitter on 10/7 is crazy. One meteorologist from PA (no, not JB or Henry) is calling for the coldest and snowiest winter ever in history for the east coast. I’m not a fan of this index or Cohen and I think it has lead to monumental busts over the last 10 years, but you have to wait until 11/1 to really judge how well or not well Siberian snowcover ended up. It’s the entire month averaged out like you said 

I'll take the under...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/7/2022 at 10:02 AM, snowman19 said:

The amount of people already spiking the football on twitter on 10/7 is crazy. One meteorologist from PA (no, not JB or Henry) is calling for the coldest and snowiest winter ever in history for the east coast. I’m not a fan of this index or Cohen and I think it has lead to monumental busts over the last 10 years, but you have to wait until 11/1 to really judge how well or not well Siberian snowcover ended up. It’s the entire month averaged out like you said 

It would make sense to have wire to wire, historic, frigid cold since oil prices will be historically high. 

  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/10/2022 at 1:29 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Normally I'd drop in that thread to compliment his work and try to spark some discussion, but I'm just done. It's a lost cause.

 

I've followed his forecast for the last 4-5 years on another forum. I've yet to see him not predict a great winter for the SW & specifically Albuquerque, which is where he lives. Always has east warm...no matter the criteria it always = warm east & cold west.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I've followed his forecast for the last 4-5 years on another forum. I've yet to see him not predict a great winter for the SW & specifically Albuquerque, which is where he lives. Always has east warm...no matter the criteria it always = warm east & cold west.

Well, to be fair, we've had a warm ENSO that acted like a cold ENSO, a torch el nino and triple dip la nina. I think he is very good,  but just acts like a complete jerk with some sort of personality disorder(s).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I've followed his forecast for the last 4-5 years on another forum. I've yet to see him not predict a great winter for the SW & specifically Albuquerque, which is where he lives. Always has east warm...no matter the criteria it always = warm east & cold west.

What's a great winter there, like 10" of snow?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, to be fair, we've had a warm ENSO that acted like a cold ENSO, a torch el nino and triple dip la nina. I think he is very good,  but just acts like a complete jerk with some sort of personality disorder(s).

 

But he has not always been correct which I attribute a little to being subjectively biased. I like the data he shares but often disagree with his conclusion of the data. 

Now i know very few are correct very often, but I'm referring not just with seasonal forecasting but in season developments. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

But he has not always been correct which I attribute a little to being subjectively biased. I like the data he shares but often disagree with his conclusion of the data. 

Now i know very few are correct very often, but I'm referring not just with seasonal forecasting but in season developments. 

Believe me, I don't always see eye to eye with him, but he's a good forecaster. I didn't say he's always been correct, but the past 5 years has favored the west on paper, for the most part.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last five winters have actually been quite snowy in the West v. the East, as I've predominantly forecast like you said. Where I am, we had ~95% below average snow in 2017-18, but the five year average is still ~8 inches v. the long-term of ~10 inches. 

ABQ has only had ~40 inches since 2017-18 - but the long-term average is 10. Keep in mind, elevation in the city varies from 4,900 feet to 6,200 feet. So most of the city has had far more than 40 inches since 2017-18. At my house, I had:

2017-18: 0.1", or less even, we had one brief snow shower at 36 degrees.

2018-19: ~15 inches (~6" in Dec, ~4" in Jan, ~5" in Feb)

2019-20: ~12 inches (~8" in Nov, 3-4" in actual winter, ~0.5" in Apr)

2020-21: ~18 inches (~9" in Oct, ~6" in Feb, 3" in Dec, Jan, Mar)

2021-22: ~10 inches (~6" in Feb, ~4" in Mar)

For what it's worth - once the solar cycle peaks I think we'll have 3/5 or 5/6 very snowy eastern winters, with jack shit for ABQ - that's what happened from 1998 to 2005, with a small exception in 2000. There are lots of cycles like this historically where one area of the US does very well repeatedly for snow over a 5-7 year period.

West-Snowy

As far as me: I was accused once of stealing hundreds of thousands of sensitive files at a job. I didn't do it. But during the investigation, I was given a whole range of psychological tests for emotional stability, personality type, IQ, etc. I'm quite normal. A normal person dislikes intellectual dishonesty - which as I've said is my issue. Repeatedly claiming to be right when you are wrong is quite irritating, and every time I point it out, people in this forum email me directly for doing so. Take it as you will.

  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The last five winters have actually been quite snowy in the West v. the East, as I've predominantly forecast like you said. Where I am, we had ~95% below average snow in 2017-18, but the five year average is still ~8 inches v. the long-term of ~10 inches. 

ABQ has only had ~40 inches since 2017-18 - but the long-term average is 10. Keep in mind, elevation in the city varies from 4,900 feet to 6,200 feet. So most of the city has had far more than 40 inches since 2017-18. At my house, I had:

2017-18: 0.1", or less even, we had one brief snow shower at 36 degrees.

2018-19: ~15 inches (~6" in Dec, ~4" in Jan, ~5" in Feb)

2019-20: ~12 inches (~8" in Nov, 3-4" in actual winter, ~0.5" in Apr)

2020-21: ~18 inches (~9" in Oct, ~6" in Feb, 3" in Dec, Jan, Mar)

2021-22: ~10 inches (~6" in Feb, ~4" in Mar)

For what it's worth - once the solar cycle peaks I think we'll have 3/5 or 5/6 very snowy eastern winters, with jack shit for ABQ - that's what happened from 1998 to 2005, with a small exception in 2000. There are lots of cycles like this historically where one area of the US does very well repeatedly for snow over a 5-7 year period.

West-Snowy

As far as me: I was accused once of stealing hundreds of thousands of sensitive files at a job. I didn't do it. But during the investigation, I was given a whole range of psychological tests for emotional stability, personality type, IQ, etc. I'm quite normal. A normal person dislikes intellectual dishonesty - which as I've said is my issue. Repeatedly claiming to be right when you are wrong is quite irritating, and every time I point it out, people in this forum email me directly for doing so. Take it as you will.

My issue is that you don't cite my forecasts as incorrect, you cite random posts that I have made in casual conversation. My forecasts are on my blog, which you have admitted you don't read. A normal person doesn't become so oppositional and critical of forecast content that they do not read.

If you catch me lying about my blog results, by all means...let me know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

As far as me: I was accused once of stealing hundreds of thousands of sensitive files at a job. I didn't do it. But during the investigation, I was given a whole range of psychological tests for emotional stability, personality type, IQ, etc. I'm quite normal. A normal person dislikes intellectual dishonesty - which as I've said is my issue. Repeatedly claiming to be right when you are wrong is quite irritating, and every time I point it out, people in this forum email me directly for doing so. Take it as you will.

 

giphy.webp

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Fair. Just be aware that cropping an image raises more questions than you’re willing to answer right now. Just sayin’

There should be plenty of questions before I issue the outlook. I just like to leave something to the imagination...not only that, it allows me to fine tune the composite if need be. FWIW, I made that composite early in September and haven't had to tweak it yet. Precip map I have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...