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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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12 hours ago, 512high said:

He waits about another month or so for Ray's outlook then he gives his thoughts lmao

I agree Judah is a better researcher than forecaster, but what I like about him is that he presents on social  media as very humble and engaging....he is also a snow weenie, which guys like Fisher are not, and it irritates me. I am sure Judah has an ego, but he does a good job of not being condescending like so many big names are. Not arrogant at all and very responsive.

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European model updated

Nov & Dec look good. Strong -NAO

NOV

Screenshot_20221005-121046_Chrome.jpg.97f5a04cdc036b4f6e72fbdcff322213.jpg

 

DEC 

Screenshot_20221005-121103_Chrome.jpg.e60b4caf929a4cd5b405adb2f56b7b60.jpg

 

We might have a fun Dec afterall if that verifies. Jan & Feb look like crap but plenty of time for that to change. 

I'm as optimistic for an earlier start to winter as I've been in a long while. This kind of enhanced my thoughts over the last month. 

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I would say the Pacific doesn't look like Dec 2000....that's a -PNA look with the huge heights near the Aleutians and some subtle troughiness near western Canada.

But that is still a great look with big poleward Aleutian ridge and -NAO....reminds me a bit more of Dec 2010, though obviously 2010 had pretty extreme blocking.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say the Pacific doesn't look like Dec 2000....that's a -PNA look with the huge heights near the Aleutians and some subtle troughiness near western Canada.

But that is still a great look with big poleward Aleutian ridge and -NAO....reminds me a bit more of Dec 2010, though obviously 2010 had pretty extreme blocking.

Not as amplified as Dec 2000 out west, sure, but that doesn't look like much of a -PNA to me. December 2000 was a monster PNA, so I agree in that respect, but its not December 2021, either.

Its closer to 12/2000 than 12/2021.

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30 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

European model updated

Nov & Dec look good. Strong -NAO

NOV

Screenshot_20221005-121046_Chrome.jpg.97f5a04cdc036b4f6e72fbdcff322213.jpg

 

DEC 

Screenshot_20221005-121103_Chrome.jpg.e60b4caf929a4cd5b405adb2f56b7b60.jpg

 

We might have a fun Dec afterall if that verifies. Jan & Feb look like crap but plenty of time for that to change. 

I'm as optimistic for an earlier start to winter as I've been in a long while. This kind of enhanced my thoughts over the last month. 

December doesn't look that cold to me.....I think the coast/lower elevation could struggle some...

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not as amplified as Dec 2000 out west, sure, but that doesn't look like much of a -PNA to me. December 2000 was a monster PNA, so I agree in that respect, but its not December 2021, either.

Dec 2021 is the most negative PNA on record for a monthly value....so yea, people shouldn't be associating a conventional -PNA with December 2021. It's like people associating a conventional -NAO with February 2010.

Euro's -PNA is a pretty good look for us since the Aleutian ridge is very poleward and it's couple with a -NAO/AO.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Dec 2021 is the most negative PNA on record for a monthly value....so yea, people shouldn't be associating a conventional -PNA with December 2021. It's like people associating a conventional -NAO with February 2010.

Euro's -PNA is a pretty good look for us since the Aleutian ridge is very poleward and it's couple with a -NAO/AO.

Yea, hyperbole on my part to accentuate the point, but that is a pretty marginal -PNA IMO.

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JAN...keep in mind it's a monthly mean. So, that particular run is probably the tail of 2 halves of JAN by looking at FEB. Probably 1st half of Jan similar to periods of DEC & 2nd half of JAN with periods FEB looking. 

Keep in mind this is simply seasonal guidance & absolutely none of them have massively high skill except for OCT. Next month NOV & so on. However, we can spot strong signal features that may be hints of something to consider.

 

JAN

Screenshot_20221005-164354_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ca7a343833b4df9f183bdbcdbcdb27c3.jpg

 

FEB

Screenshot_20221005-164415_Chrome.thumb.jpg.510f794d8475b61a006dce8b95ed74c7.jpg

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