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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

too early for post-winter analysis, but it really does seem like it followed a la nina to a tee (aside from a couple of january events).  just couldn't get a consistent southern stream to get going.  with that said, i did expect more in the way of clippers, especially based off of the november pattern.  that part surprised me a bit given the fact that the northern stream was the primary player.

I'd still like to know why clippers in general have been hard to come by. It's like that good clipper of 2015 was supposed to satisfy us for years, lol

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8 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

GFS say get your lawn mower ready for action. Beware the bugs of March.

                     Sincerely, 

                          Capt. Obvious                 

I'm ready to move past it...when it doesn't snow in Feb its a good sign to tune up the mower

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12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I'm ready to move past it...when it doesn't snow in Feb its a good sign to tune up the mower

Actually my experience is that a snowless (practically) Feb with warm-ish temps are usually followed by cold springs. I have no data to support this, only memories. 2020 and 2009 come to mind.

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With the advertised pattern there likely will be no long trackers(probably a good thing). Still a decent chance something pops up around March 10th, but in general the 'good looks' on the ens means with the SE ridge flatter and the boundary closer have been getting can kicked a bit. Problem with that is we don't have much road left.

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54 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

I’ve given up. I’m in this game for the HECS, MECS and BECS. Last one of those was 2016 in northern Baltimore county and it’s been too long.

We’re not getting a March 93 this year and we all know it. Time for severe season.


.

Good call on that March ‘93. They’re pretty common, just not our year

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16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Good call on that March ‘93. They’re pretty common, just not our year

I mean there was a point in March '93 we didn't know we were getting a March '93...we don't know for sure we are not

 

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I mean there was a point in March '93 we didn't know we were getting a March '93...we don't know for sure we are not

 

Exactly. Giving up means you are no longer interested in playing. Not that it's actually over. Not a person or computer here can get sensible wx right beyond 5 days or so. If you know enough to be certain that it's over, then it's different. But nobody does. Prob not even the wx itself. I always keep a casual eye open during dead space because I know for certain I don't know much. Lol. Big boy climo near the cities generally ends by mid March. Once that window is clear, it gets much easier to give up because climo is closing the door whether I like it or not. Lol

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9 hours ago, baldereagle said:

GFS say get your lawn mower ready for action. Beware the bugs of March.

                     Sincerely, 

                          Capt. Obvious                 

Oh, and here I thought all the green on the GFS meant rain!  Not grass!  But I guess one helps the other, eh?! :lol:

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1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Bruh that's like d10 forecasting.  Take it to the bank, right?

That period has looked favorable on the means. Doesn't mean we will see a winter storm. I have liked the March 8-12 window, but that may end up being shifted later by 2-3 days based on the advertised progression on the latest ensemble runs.

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The 0z GFS managed to get a decent snow event through the region on March 10. GEFS suggests a storm moving along the boundary for that time period, but a bit on the warm side. The advertised h5 look actually gets better just beyond that time, so maybe the 10th through the 17th or so is our best chance for something. St Patty's Day paste bomb. B)

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The 0z GFS managed to get a decent snow event through the region on March 10. GEFS suggests a storm moving along the boundary for that time period, but a bit on the warm side. The advertised h5 look actually gets better just beyond that time, so maybe the 10th through the 17th or so is our best chance for something. St Patty's Day paste bomb. B)
Winter in like a lamb...out like a lamb
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1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

I think that officially puts our 10 day digital snow at 500" on the year.

nah...thats part of why this winter has sucked. We havent even seen digital snow

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19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That chance around the 15th that has been showing up for a couple of days is probably our last hoorah. I hope it works out for a 6 inch paste bomb and then we go to 70's with an occasional chance of severe. This winter has really beat me up mentally. :)

I'd sign on the dotted line for this.

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22 hours ago, CAPE said:

That period has looked favorable on the means. Doesn't mean we will see a winter storm. I have liked the March 8-12 window, but that may end up being shifted later by 2-3 days based on the advertised progression on the latest ensemble runs.

I mean, anything's possible, even a meteor like the one that wiped out the archosaurs.   In 18yrs here we've only had one significant snow event in March and even that melted by mid afternoon.  I'll take the under.   

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4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I mean, anything's possible, even a meteor like the one that wiped out the archosaurs.   In 18yrs here we've only had one significant snow event in March and even that melted by mid afternoon.  I'll take the under.   

Archosaurs? Hadn't heard that term, lol

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