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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It will snow by Saturday… with all of this wind forecast I decided to store away my heat mats until next year rather than take the time to weight them down again for the upteenth wind storm this month.  I expect my sacrifice to the snow gods to be rewarded.    

Jobu approves!

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just saw this . I disagree.  

They aren't very useful at range, and we sure don't need to see every d7-10 snow map from every op and ens run posted. That gets pretty tiresome.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think in the context of the Wed event, she meant that the snow maps verbatim aren't very useful with such marginal surface temps and likely low ratios. I made a post about that myself.

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54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HH GFS with a sharper shortwave and a bit more in the way of snow as the cold comes in Saturday. GFS is 'noisy' the last several runs if nothing else.

I think most guidance will ultimately trend colder over the next several days, but I’m still very skeptical we get much, if any, snow out of the advertised look at H5. Chaotic and progressive in nature, and it’s March. Color me skeptical for sure. Would love to be wrong but I’m going to keep my expectations very low and hopefully I receive a nice surprise come Saturday. 

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11 hours ago, CAPE said:

HH GFS with a sharper shortwave and a bit more in the way of snow as the cold comes in Saturday. GFS is 'noisy' the last several runs if nothing else.

0z Euro is also earlier and cleaner with phasing, and develops a sharper trough. Not as progressive, and that gives a low developing along the front more of a chance as the cold comes in. Maybe a bit of a trend here. CMC still not quite onboard.

1647097200-iwSXN7QVxbs.png

 

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11 hours ago, CAPE said:

They aren't very useful at range, and we sure don't need to see every d7-10 snow map from every op and ens run posted. That gets pretty tiresome.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think in the context of the Wed event, she meant that the snow maps verbatim aren't very useful with such marginal surface temps and likely low ratios. I made a post about that myself.

I did, thanks. The map posted showed 7 inches for DC lolololol 

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26 minutes ago, mappy said:

I did, thanks. The map posted showed 7 inches for DC lolololol 

Maybe next winter we can have a rule about bombarding the LR thread with snow maps every model cycle. They should be reserved for discrete storm threat threads imo. We had a thread for posting digital snow maps, but I guess it never got pinned.

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

I have stopped posting snow maps outside of 5 days.

Unless it's a big storm with a lot of model consensus, like the 2016 storm had a week out, I think limiting snow maps to inside of 5 days makes sense. I don't know if there is anything that means less than the GEFS snow maps. Totally worthless.

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Sat deal has looked workable in some fashion in general since it showed up. No feelings one way or another yet. However, if it lines up for even just an OK event at best by Thurs, I'm going full weenie. Maybe more than full weenie.

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6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

March 93 weenie?

Another reason I hate missing that storm. How can you even comprehend more than full weenie when you missed the ONLY legit triple phaser in the last 50+ years? That storm set the upper limit of full weenie from a nuts and bolts perspective. I'll just have to guess but I'm pretty good at this game. Some may say my weenie has been pretty big in the past. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Sat deal has looked workable in some fashion in general since it showed up. No feelings one way or another yet. However, if it lines up for even just an OK event at best by Thurs, I'm going full weenie. Maybe more than full weenie.

It has looked sort of workable and not like some overly crazy solution we have to hope for (just a slightly crazy one!!).  We've had the occasional event work before where enough of a wave forms along a front after it passes through, to give us enough moisture for decent snow.  Even in Mach (I'm thinking of a couple of times in 2014 and 2015, though those were pretty exceptional).  So yeah, if on Thursday things are looking pretty good, then maybe it's ON!

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Another reason I hate missing that storm. How can you even comprehend more than full weenie when you missed the ONLY legit triple phaser in the last 50+ years? That storm set the upper limit of full weenie from a nuts and bolts perspective. I'll just have to guess but I'm pretty good at this game. Some may say my weenie has been pretty big in the past. 

I was in Ohio during the 1993 storm.  In the Cleveland area and east we got about 10-12" with blizzard conditions and temperatures in the teens to low 20s.  Areas in east-central and southeast Ohio got hit even harder.  It was one of the rare Nor'Easter events that can actually affect the eastern part of Ohio!  That's how big that storm was, such an amazing wide coverage.  But for me, the triple-phaser that I most recall is the one in January 1978, that went right up through Ohio as it bombed out.

Oh, and better be cautious!  Looks like you sent up a couple of potential RR flares there, with the weenie talk!! :lol:

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I was a teenager in northeast Iowa during the 1978 storm;; I spent the evenings listening to coverage from powerful WWWE.  I was in the DC area during the 1993 storm; walking across snow/sleet drifts without sinking brought back memories of running across snow drifts as a youth in Iowa.

I'm cautiously optimistic that areas in the >50% category (below) will have accumulating snow (> a trace) over the next 5-days.  

 

eps_snow_3_ma_120.thumb.png.dd50987af00f01c052b5b7b526d94026.png

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few things about 93 that stood out:

1) earlier in the week everyone talking about a big storm, but not being sure what the precip type would be.

2) by wednesday, the weather channel message came on talking about how the "big one is on the way...".

3) friday was fairly mild.  i think it got up to near 50 during the day.

4) light mix in the wee hours of saturday which made me think, "uh oh".

5) waking up again a few hours later to several inches of snow.

6) saturday morning was snowing how you would expect it would if there was a tropical storm.  thundersnow, sticking to all surfaces...pretty close to, if not, blizzard conditions for a bit.

7) typical dmv "snowstorm" where it changed to sleet in the afternoon.

8) being able to literally walk on the snow.  i remember playing catch with my dog.

9) changeover back to snow for a few more inches.

10) not an all timer for snow here by any stretch (at least for the 95 corridor), but definitely a unique, fun storm.

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7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS is a smidget better for the weekend deal and is close to a pretty large snowstorm with the coastal developing faster. Just nudge it 50 miles east and we are good 

prateptype_cat.us_ma.png

Looks like it is pushing the colder air in faster as well, at 850 hPa and the surface (between 12-18Z), and it looks colder at the surface by 18Z while there's still precip around it appears.  In any event, it could end as a neat burst of snow as the cold blasts in.

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