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March 2022


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Morning thoughts…

It will become cloudy today. Showers  and periods of rain will develop during the afternoon or evening hours. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 49°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 56°

Showers are likely tomorrow and Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 54.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.9°

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The next 8 days are averaging  42degs.(36/47) or -2.

Month to date is  46.8[+5.3].         Should be  45.5[+3.4] by the 31st.

Reached 63 here yesterday about 6pm.

Today: 48-52, wind e. and breezy, cloudy and rain starting late-in earnest after 9pm.

500mb Heights down to 5270m, or -2.3sd near the 26th, 27th., but bounce back quickly-then negative again on April 1-2.

naefs_2022032300_ne_anom_gh_500_102.png

44*(36%RH) here at 7am{43* at 5am.}        44*-46* during the morning,Noon.

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In our warmer climate, models usually back off Arctic outbreaks in the 6-10 day forecast. This time they are actually increasing the cold as we get closer. The polar vortex passes right over the area as the blocking is becoming more intense than earlier forecasts. Models all have lows on the 28th in the 20s and highs only in the 30s. The average split for NYC on 3-28 is 54/39. 
 

B04C7C03-1C8F-469A-A849-2BEAC33B4682.thumb.png.96712505176ab44fa920418639ebbd8b.png

AC2D8464-6CA3-40D6-8E48-05375905921F.thumb.png.65e04a2c4ac56f1d10361c6b44461672.png

DB34852C-F2F6-4F65-938D-E27CAE83351F.thumb.png.b0c73dfcb959f6fe4dbd750bc5a03f1a.png

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In our warmer climate, models usually back off Arctic outbreaks in the 6-10 day forecast. This time they are actually increasing the cold as we get closer. The polar vortex passes right over the area as the blocking is becoming more intense than earlier forecasts. Models all have lows on the 28th in the 20s and highs only in the 30s. The average split for NYC on 3-28 is 54/39. 
 

B04C7C03-1C8F-469A-A849-2BEAC33B4682.thumb.png.96712505176ab44fa920418639ebbd8b.png

AC2D8464-6CA3-40D6-8E48-05375905921F.thumb.png.65e04a2c4ac56f1d10361c6b44461672.png

DB34852C-F2F6-4F65-938D-E27CAE83351F.thumb.png.b0c73dfcb959f6fe4dbd750bc5a03f1a.png

 

It's a rare legit cold wave in a sea of warmth. Early blooms likely to be affected.

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In our warmer climate, models usually back off Arctic outbreaks in the 6-10 day forecast. This time they are actually increasing the cold as we get closer. The polar vortex passes right over the area as the blocking is becoming more intense than earlier forecasts. Models all have lows on the 28th in the 20s and highs only in the 30s. The average split for NYC on 3-28 is 54/39. 
 

B04C7C03-1C8F-469A-A849-2BEAC33B4682.thumb.png.96712505176ab44fa920418639ebbd8b.png

AC2D8464-6CA3-40D6-8E48-05375905921F.thumb.png.65e04a2c4ac56f1d10361c6b44461672.png

DB34852C-F2F6-4F65-938D-E27CAE83351F.thumb.png.b0c73dfcb959f6fe4dbd750bc5a03f1a.png

 

is this kind of extreme cold now forecast to last into early April, Chris-- could we see lows below freezing in April (and maybe even a chance of snow during the first week of the month)?

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a rare legit cold wave in a sea of warmth. Early blooms likely to be affected.

Yeah, some early blooms around the area with the 9th warmest March through the 22nd.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 22
Missing Count
1 2012-03-22 51.2 0
2 2010-03-22 48.6 0
3 2020-03-22 48.5 0
4 1921-03-22 48.2 0
5 2016-03-22 47.6 0
6 1903-03-22 47.5 0
7 1946-03-22 47.4 0
8 1945-03-22 47.1 0
9 2022-03-22 46.8 0
10 1990-03-22 46.4 0
- 1977-03-22 46.4 0

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a rare legit cold wave in a sea of warmth. Early blooms likely to be affected.

Yup. I have tons of early flowers in bloom on campus. Most, like daffodils will handle it without being trashed. But our magnolia will loose it’s blooms. 
I’ll take the loss if we can at least pull a snow event and not waste the cold 

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52 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

We got teased big-time last week.  Probably won't be nice again until May.  Ugh.

Just want to be outside in the sun, walking,  golfing, etc...way better than looking out the window and hoping for white flakes to fall from the sky

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26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yup. I have tons of early flowers in bloom on campus. Most, like daffodils will handle it without being trashed. But our magnolia will loose it’s blooms. 
I’ll take the loss if we can at least pull a snow event and not waste the cold 

I'd rather it be in the first week of April, those are the ones we remember.

 

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if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough

obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8728000.thumb.png.74ad35870a06b7bd5c0858087f8a496b.png

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd rather it be in the first week of April, those are the ones we remember.

 

My mother still talks about Easter Sunday 1970.  Her relatives from the Jersey Shore area had to cancel their plans to travel north for the holiday.  Think there was a good 6-8 inches of snow in North Jersey.  By the next afternoon, it was gone.  

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Again……NYC proper, AFTER the EQUINOX (3/20), in the 22 years since 2000, go back and look for yourself

Can’t speak to Central Park but in April 2003 and April 2018 right on the south shore where I lived at the time there was 6” each. It’s rare but doable. 

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