LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It can happen in the right situation. 2/22/08 is around this time of year lol. 12/5/03 is the gold standard. But it’s 2-3:1 for these to be lousy sleet to rain events here while it piles up in Boston because of a lousy high or charging primary that doesn’t transfer in forever. was 12/5/03 the two day storm with the Blizzard warning and like 5 miles south of us it was raining? The second day of the storm was colder, but we underperformed because flake size was small if I remember correctly. Ended up with 13-14 inches while the middle part of the island got like 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the good thing about VD 2007 was it stayed below freezing here throughout the event on the south shore The 0Z CMC has NYC and points NW at or below freezing most of the storm. LI looks slightly above freezing but we all know the north shore is usually colder than modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Onshore flow isn’t a killer this time of year I’ll say that. VD 2007 would have been a washout for the city on east if it was 12/14 any winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: was 12/5/03 the two day storm with the Blizzard warning and like 5 miles south of us it was raining? The second day of the storm was colder, but we underperformed because flake size was small if I remember correctly. Ended up with 13-14 inches while the middle part of the island got like 20" Yes-it was an overrunning event for the first part on 12/5 that was supposed to be maybe 1-2” to rain, and it ended up being the best part of the overall event around NYC. The rain line got to around Sandy Hook and stopped dead. The coastal storm redevelopment on 12/6 did a lot better in Suffolk County and there were parts that had 20” overall. Long Beach had 12-13” I think. 8” from 12/5, 4-5” from 12/6 because the coastal storm hammered Suffolk County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: that is impossible to predict this far out what the temp will be at the surface Big difference between 1-3 inches of snow followed by sleet and freezing rain (absolute travel nightmare) vs 1-3 inches of snow followed by rain (basically a non event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: was 12/5/03 the two day storm with the Blizzard warning and like 5 miles south of us it was raining? The second day of the storm was colder, but we underperformed because flake size was small if I remember correctly. Ended up with 13-14 inches while the middle part of the island got like 20" Yeah....it was more I think that the system was a sloppy non consolidated MSLP...the trof that dug into the OHV and MA was crazy deep, ultimately a surface reflection formed off the Delmarva on 12/5 which no model had forecast at all which led to the huge snows that day...there was still a weak low inland and I think thereafter the process of consolidation was all sorts of sloppy so we had two mesoscale areas of snow over C LI and E NJ on 12/6 and nothing in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yes-it was an overrunning event for the first part on 12/5 that was supposed to be maybe 1-2” to rain, and it ended up being the best part of the overall event around NYC. The rain line got to around Sandy Hook and stopped dead. The coastal storm redevelopment on 12/6 did a lot better in Suffolk County and there were parts that had 20” overall. Long Beach had 12-13” I think. 8” from 12/5, 4-5” from 12/6 because the coastal storm hammered Suffolk County. Thats exactly my memory of it, JFK was in the lead after day one with like 9" on the first day and about 5" on the second day with much colder temps I thought we'd do much better but the second day was a disappointment. This is also the earliest I've seen temps in the teens. The first day was the best though and the surprise with that rain/snow line not making it further north coupled with the fact that the heaviest snows are usually just north of that line. February 2014 was the opposite of that, where the rain snow line made it just north of us-- I'll take a 12/03 over that every time, even with the disappointing second day of the storm, at least it was all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Onshore flow isn’t a killer this time of year I’ll say that. VD 2007 would have been a washout for the city on east if it was 12/14 any winter. how much snow did we get before the mix happened-- 4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 28 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The 0Z CMC has NYC and points NW at or below freezing most of the storm. LI looks slightly above freezing but we all know the north shore is usually colder than modeled. yup and a little wrinkle is that the western part of the south shore can sometimes be below freezing while the eastern part is above freezing. I've seen it in several events here where it stays below freezing from Oceanside westward and it's above freezing to the east of there. VD 2007 was one of those events and so was Jan 1994. March 1993 had 10-12 inches of snow from Oceanside westward, while east of there got only 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 The GFS has decided that it’s going to be Casey Jones and go down with the runaway train. No other model shows anything close to what it’s doing for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS has decided that it’s going to be Casey Jones and go down with the runaway train. No other model shows anything close to what it’s doing for Friday Euro and cmc came south. The interior looks better and better with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS has decided that it’s going to be Casey Jones and go down with the runaway train. No other model shows anything close to what it’s doing for Friday It continues to shift the snow axis north. By 12z it will be north of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It continues to shift the snow axis north. By 12z it will be north of the city. And the other models have came south so a compromise will most likely happen. Interior areas will do well Maybe a quick front end thump for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: And the other models have came south so a compromise will most likely happen. Interior areas will do well Maybe a quick front end thump for the city They have come in colder but the snow axis basically the same. The gfs once again with a horrible performance in the medium range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: They have come in colder but the snow axis basically the same. The gfs once again with a horrible performance in the medium range You can't say that until the storm actually happens which it hasn't. The best shot for accumulating snow is interior areas which these storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 We don't have blocking to keep this south of the area . There is alot of confluence to the north but I don't think that will be enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Eps went north We can never win here in the city. Worse place for winter . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 The big CMC upgrade allowed it to move into 2nd place behind the Euro. The UKMET fell back to 3rd and the GFS 4th place. So this matches the 5 day errors we have seen with our storm tracks. The Euro and CMC have been the leaders. The CMC even had that Sunday run back in January which showed the blizzard ahead of the Euro and GFS. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ https://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2021/11/26/NOCN03_CWAO_262118___50159 MAJOR UPGRADE OF WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA ON DECEMBER 1, 2021, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT MAJOR UPGRADES TO ITS WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS. THESE UPDATES ARE THE RESULT OF OVER TWO YEARS OF RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND WILL PERMIT THE ADDITION OF OVER 170 INNOVATIONS IN SOME 31 ATMOSPHERIC, OCEANIC, HYDROLOGICAL, AND SURFACE FORECASTING SYSTEMS. FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE INNOVATIONS AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON SERVICES THAT ARE REALIZED WITH THESE UPGRADES, PLEASE REFER TO THE MSC OPEN DATA WEB PORTAL AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (IN LOWER CASE): HTTPS://ECCC-MSC.GITHUB.IO/OPEN-DATA/MSC-DATA/CHANGELOG_NWP_EN/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Euro has had a good past few weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 34 minutes ago, Allsnow said: They have come in colder but the snow axis basically the same. The gfs once again with a horrible performance in the medium range Agreed. This has I-84 snow special written all over it. No -NAO block and it’s just going to continue to trend north as we get closer. I don’t see much of a front end thump either, there is going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch….which the models almost always underestimate badly. I really don’t think there’s going to be much snow south of I-84. And as far as the GFS goes, it’s pathetic. It’s been abysmal to the point of comedy for months now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 46 minutes ago, Allsnow said: They have come in colder but the snow axis basically the same. The gfs once again with a horrible performance in the medium range MJO and Snowman both "liked" this comment. And there was peace in the world...for a moment... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed. This has I-84 snow special written all over it. No -NAO block and it’s just going to continue to trend north as we get closer. I don’t see much of a front end thump either, there is going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch….which the models almost always underestimate badly. I really don’t think there’s going to be much snow south of I-84. And as far as the GFS goes, it’s pathetic. It’s been abysmal to the point of comedy for months now You can say the same for every model. All the models have been a joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Maybe we should just go with this for now until it backs down and call it a day..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Maybe we should just go with this for now until it backs down and call it a day..... Maybe but these storms usually trend northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I Look at the guidance and try my best to understand it along with what you ladies and gents post but with 4 or 5 days until the event I do not lock anything in as we all know that the solutions can and will change many times between now and Thursday. Same is to be said for the long range which shows March coming in like a lion = it's over 10 days away and I do not take the guidance as gospel especially when IMO most of the guidance this year has been erratic to say the least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I have never seen so much emotion in one place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps went north We can never win here in the city. Worse place for winter . They only average 28-30" and that's after the past 20 years of well above normal snows. Additionally this storm is still many days away so don't count your chickens yet. Personally I'm ready for spring and welcome the mild weather. I don't care for minor snow events that will melt the next day. Either go big or go home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 simple maps-- simple plan coastal storm is on all ens models my vibe is the metro will steadily improve on the snow accumulations as we move thru the week 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: They only average 28-30" and that's after the past 20 years of well above normal snows. Additionally this storm is still many days away so don't count your chickens yet. Personally I'm ready for spring and welcome the mild weather. I don't care for minor snow events that will melt the next day. Either go big or go home. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, Doorman said: simple maps-- simple plan coastal storm is on all ens models my vibe is the metro will steadily improve on the snow accumulations as we move thru the week Hopefully but nothing to keep the high in place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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