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February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm


mikem81
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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow.

I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city. 

The high is pretty strong up north.  It's not shifting east when the storm comes up. How is a weak low plowing into a high?

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50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow.

I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city. 

I know this is gonna take this way the eff off topic again…but are you sure you know where I78 is?

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It doesn’t look colder in the midlevels, they are torched, that’s why it barely has any snow at all south of I-84

You've mentioned barely any snow at all south of 84 a few times now. NWS most recent map has me in 4-5 inches, and I am south of 84. Can you please reach out and make sure they correct their map so the public is not led astray? Thank you!

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6 minutes ago, sn0w said:

You've mentioned barely any snow at all south of 84 a few times now. NWS most recent map has me in 4-5 inches, and I am south of 84. Can you please reach out and make sure they correct their map so the public is not led astray? Thank you!

you bout to get weenie tagged pal, consider it an honor :)

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48 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

So you know that a lot of nyc geographically, is in fact not south of 78? Just making sure here. Lol

Normally I think it would reasonable to assume what NYC gets would be similar to a little south of I78 in NJ but this system is more latitude dependent than longitude so NYC should fair better than south of I78 in NJ.

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34 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Normally I think it would reasonable to assume what NYC gets would be similar to a little south of I78 in NJ but this system is more latitude dependent than longitude so NYC should fair better than south of I78 in NJ.

I fully expect this to be slop with no real accumulations until north of me….but ive been wrong before. Once. 
 

also a reminder, snow totals arent measured on roads, nor over manhole covers on 53rd street, nor on a block of ice metsfan saves for these occasions. So it may in fact be measurable snow, as is often the case in later season storms, that doesnt really affect roads/commute. But since this is a weather forum, and not a traffic forum, we discuss the actual weather, not just its effects on our lives. 

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7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I fully expect this to be slop with no real accumulations until north of me….but ive been wrong before. Once. 
 

also a reminder, snow totals arent measured on roads, nor over manhole covers on 53rd street, nor on a block of ice metsfan saves for these occasions. So it may in fact be measurable snow, as is often the case in later season storms, that doesnt really affect roads/commute. But since this is a weather forum, and not a traffic forum, we discuss the actual weather, not just its effects on our lives. 

Lol a block of ice metsfan saves. That’s classic. It is interesting though that we only measure the snow that actually accumulates rather than what falls.  We don’t do that with rain. 

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22 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I fully expect this to be slop with no real accumulations until north of me….but ive been wrong before. Once. 
 

also a reminder, snow totals arent measured on roads, nor over manhole covers on 53rd street, nor on a block of ice metsfan saves for these occasions. So it may in fact be measurable snow, as is often the case in later season storms, that doesnt really affect roads/commute. But since this is a weather forum, and not a traffic forum, we discuss the actual weather, not just its effects on our lives. 

I wish I had my own block of ice 

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31 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I fully expect this to be slop with no real accumulations until north of me….but ive been wrong before. Once. 
 

also a reminder, snow totals arent measured on roads, nor over manhole covers on 53rd street, nor on a block of ice metsfan saves for these occasions. So it may in fact be measurable snow, as is often the case in later season storms, that doesnt really affect roads/commute. But since this is a weather forum, and not a traffic forum, we discuss the actual weather, not just its effects on our lives. 

Good evening BxE and noted. For some of us the weather is our lives. I’ll be disappointed if your first two sentences fail to garner multiple responses. As always ….

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2 minutes ago, Doorman said:

agfs_asnow_neus_fh78_trend.thumb.gif.c3e920d2e4342e6165c18beef0740e41.gif

can someone tell me how to shovel double digit slop.........

asking for a friend on the jersey border  :bag:
 

Good evening Doorman. A question best answered by a porcine farmer. I remember, fondly, your original avatar. Some of us will always try to keep that door open. Stay well, as always ….

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47 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I fully expect this to be slop with no real accumulations until north of me….but ive been wrong before. Once. 
 

also a reminder, snow totals arent measured on roads, nor over manhole covers on 53rd street, nor on a block of ice metsfan saves for these occasions. So it may in fact be measurable snow, as is often the case in later season storms, that doesnt really affect roads/commute. But since this is a weather forum, and not a traffic forum, we discuss the actual weather, not just its effects on our lives. 

How do we define real accumulations? I think at least 1-3 inches is pretty likely for most of the subforum, I'm tempted to say 3-6 between I80 and I84 but not sure still on the mid level warming. 

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1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

I fully expect this to be slop with no real accumulations until north of me….but ive been wrong before. Once. 
 

also a reminder, snow totals arent measured on roads, nor over manhole covers on 53rd street, nor on a block of ice metsfan saves for these occasions. So it may in fact be measurable snow, as is often the case in later season storms, that doesnt really affect roads/commute. But since this is a weather forum, and not a traffic forum, we discuss the actual weather, not just its effects on our lives. 

Please call the incompetents measuring in Central Park this year and remind them. 

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35 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

How do we define real accumulations? I think at least 1-3 inches is pretty likely for most of the subforum, I'm tempted to say 3-6 between I80 and I84 but not sure still on the mid level warming. 

2003 to 2022

Coating to 6…Light

6-12…………Moderate 

12-24………Heavy

24-36………Real Accumulations 

1979 to 1993

Coating to 3….Light 

3-6…………Moderate

6-12…….…Heavy

12-24……..Real Accumulations 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2003 to 2022

Trace to 6…Light

6-12…………Moderate 

12-24………Heavy

24-36………Real Accumulations 

1979 1993

1-3…………Light 

3-6…………Moderate

6-12…….…Heavy

12-24……..Real Accumulations 

In that case no one is getting real accumulations with this storm. 

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4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

This ones gonna surprise some people. That high is pretty stout 

I can actually see it not changing to plain rain for NYC and much of LI until perhaps the end or as a dry slot comes in. By that I mean there’s plenty of sleet and some ZR but it’s cold enough to start to keep it non-rain. Unfortunately for snow you want to be in Boston or north of 84. That’s been the case for days and won’t be changing much. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I can actually see it not changing to plain rain for NYC and much of LI until perhaps the end or as a dry slot comes in. By that I mean there’s plenty of sleet and some ZR but it’s cold enough to start to keep it non-rain. Unfortunately for snow you want to be in Boston or north of 84. That’s been the case for days and won’t be changing much. 

Simply not true. There will be 1-4 inches from NYC up to Putnam county and some 1-2 inch type numbers on north shore as well. Now if you mean 6+ then I agree. 

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7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Simply not true. There will be 1-4 inches from NYC up to Putnam county and some 1-2 inch type numbers on north shore as well. Now if you mean 6+ then I agree. 

Thats why I asked how real accumulations are defined on here. After seeing how its defined I now understand this is not a snow event for anyone in the subforum. 

 

In all seriousness though this is a tough forecast from NYC to I84 due to the mid level situation. Right now I could see anywhere from 1 to 6 inches in this zone.

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Thats why I asked how real accumulations are defined on here. After seeing how its defined I now understand this is not a snow event for anyone in the subforum. 

 

In all seriousness though this is a tough forecast from NYC to I84 due to the mid level situation. Right now I could see anywhere from 0 to 6 inches in this zone, obviously the closer to I84 the better, the closer to the Atlantic less. 

I think NWS snow estimates look realistic. 

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