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Feb 16-17th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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52 minutes ago, Owensnow said:

Man looks like DTW and TTF are going to be walking a fine line here between wasting half of the storm on sleet and whatever.

 

modelling solutions are stronger and further north west.

 

might even get into a dry slot for a time“ according to the latest Hi-Rez NAM

 

but looks to be convective snows in the tail end deformation area.

 

Still not overly confident on snow amounts from Detroit and South

 

 

The changeover is progressing SE pretty quickly from what I can tell.

Per the SPC mesoanalysis, the snow/sleet line is over Detroit proper now.

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6E0D5276-F7B1-460C-A206-B4806E432A17.gif.dcd3d001003766aceb8e1858b2f4cba1.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central into northern Illinois

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 172117Z - 172315Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected to
   continue for at least a few more hours across central into northern
   Illinois. Up to 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are possible with the
   heaviest bands.

   DISCUSSION...KLOT and KILX dual-polarimetric radar data and surface
   observations have shown moderate to heavy snow falling across
   central into northern IL over the past few hours. While the 850 mb
   cyclone centered over the IL/IN continues to propagate northeast,
   away from the mid Mississippi Valley area, 20Z mesoanalysis
   continues to show modest 700 mb WAA and associated frontogenesis
   taking place across central into northern IL, where a saturated,
   sub-freezing troposphere is in place. The WAA and frontogenesis will
   continue to foster efficient dendrite growth within a
   southwest-northeast oriented snow band across central into northern
   IL for at least a few more hours, where moderate to heavy snow is
   expected. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates may accompany stronger
   portions of the snow band.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/17/2022

 

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It's impossible to make a good snow depth measurement due to all the drifting. The snow hit full force around 10AM and it hasn't let up in since. Even if official totals end up lower than GHD 3 here, this storm is going to be a lot more memorable due to the crazy snowfall rates and the bulk of the snow falling during the day.

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HRRR really pushing the dry slot party all the way up to DTW.

 

heavy snow is from this gonna be further west than projected.

 

Going to switch to snow here after sleet and then dry slot, then back to sleet again it might finish with two or 3 inches on the ground here east of TTF

 

Wow

 

 

Gotta say the models have been all over the place with this thing and the northwest trend has once again proven itself fatal for me I think 

 

 

hope I’m wrong but radar really doesn’t resemble anything decent for this neck of the woods later on.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

Last part of this in Southern Michigan is falling apart and going to under perform.  Sorry.  

 

It has finally started to ramp up here. Not sure how long it will last though? The decent stuff does seem to weaken ( per radar ) as it approaches. Ofcourse I am having to go by iwx radar with GRR being down. 

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