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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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GFS has trended towards the Euro at h5, with more of a NS vorticity lobe rather than an elongated, sharper shortwave more conducive for a phase with the southern vort, which would result in a sharper, deeper trough allowing for a bigger event. Instead we are seeing the depiction of a broader trough with the vorticity disjointed and strung out, and little to no impact from the coastal low, which is too far east.

12z yesterday that produced a significant event-

1644732000-yDNJSBmPDC0.png

1644786000-ixeA9RMZlOc.png

6z run this morning-

1644732000-aDktAzEpfO8.png

1644786000-veu25tL2QNQ.png

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS has trended towards the Euro at h5, with more of a NS vorticity lobe rather than an elongated, sharper shortwave more conducive for a phase with the southern vort, which would result in a sharper, deeper trough allowing for a bigger event. Instead we are seeing the depiction of a broader trough with the vorticity disjointed and strung out, and little to no impact from the coastal low, which is too far east.

12z yesterday that produced a significant event-

1644732000-yDNJSBmPDC0.png

1644786000-ixeA9RMZlOc.png

6z run this morning-

1644732000-aDktAzEpfO8.png

1644786000-veu25tL2QNQ.png

The further west we can get this broad trough, the better.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The further west we can get this broad trough, the better.

If we want to see any impacts from the coastal yes. As it stands the southern vort sliding up on the east side of the developing trough is the focus for any snow we get as depicted. That also induces the coastal low, but too late. Shift that all west some and well.. maybe.

1644764400-3Mxpt6orENg.png

1644764400-BnHl1tYLAb8.png

 

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If we want to see any impacts from the coastal yes. As it stands the southern vort sliding up on the east side of the developing trough is the focus for any snow we get as depicted. That also induces the coastal low, but too late. Shift that all west some and well.. maybe.

1644764400-3Mxpt6orENg.png

1644764400-BnHl1tYLAb8.png

 

That ns piece seems to be the wild card. Gonna be interested to see how it plays out.

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Throw out the NAM, which is a complete outlier, (and should almost always be thrown out on principle) the preponderance of guidance suggests a minor event on the order of an inch to maybe as much as 3 in a few places. Any changes that occur going forward would probably be minor, with a better chance of it going the wrong way given the overall fast/progressive nature of the pattern.

 

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know the 06z GFS was posted in the LR thread but adding it here. I'd pay about $200 for it to be right, at least.

image.thumb.png.fa653339ff23031b5f24bda797fae7be.png

I’ll chip in a few ducketts for that! Lol. Hoping we can keep that look or juice it up a smidge more throughout today’s future runs. 

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know the 06z GFS was posted in the LR thread but adding it here. I'd pay about $200 for it to be right, at least.

image.thumb.png.fa653339ff23031b5f24bda797fae7be.png

I wouldn't mind that either, but the GFS has been a bit unsteady lately. Still think 1-3 seems reasonable, maybe a bit more down your way if the GFS has a clue.

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Another potential issue with the GFS (again) is that it is more aggressive with the cold. It is significantly colder than other guidance while precip is falling. CMC and Euro are marginal at the surface.

I'd bet the 06z NAM must have been the same then

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This was gleaned from th 3:50 Am disco from Sterling. 
 

Quote
Most likely snowfall amounts are
currently projected at less than 2 inches for most areas, but
both a low end scenario of little to no snow /and/ a high end
scenario of several inches are still on the table.

Just sayin’

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Another potential issue with the GFS (again) is that it is more aggressive with the cold. It is significantly colder than other guidance while precip is falling. CMC and Euro are marginal at the surface.

33-34F temps with light daytime snow ain’t gonna do it in mid February. So need it to snow more at night or thump for a few hours. 

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