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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Any more potential the next 10 days or so?

GFS today is teasing D10, but things look generally hostile for snow chances after next week. Could it change? Sure. And I think there’s no reason to say winter is forked entirely, but expectations should be low given it will be late February or early March. Maybe we score a unicorn in an otherwise warm pattern. It can happen as wavelengths shorten. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS today is teasing D10, but things look generally hostile for snow chances after next week. Could it change? Sure. And I think there’s no reason to say winter is forked entirely, but expectations should be low given it will be late February or early March. Maybe we score a unicorn in an otherwise warm pattern. It can happen as wavelengths shorten. 

Yeah the D10 PD weekend period is what I was thinking about. I don't even consider anything beyond PD weekend anyway, lol I'll track whatever until then as this winter's last hoorah!

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48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Get any phasing at all at 228 and it’s game on 

Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! :weenie::weenie:

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! :weenie::weenie:

2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting. 

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! :weenie::weenie:

Ahhh, the Maestro storm!  Has a ring to it!  Might strike the right chord and we can end this winter on a high note!

64q4sw.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting. 

Yeah but I haven't heard anybody say anything about any cold for next month. Isn't the MJO gonna go into the warmer phases anyway?

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12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Anyone else having the issue of the GFS being stuck at hour 222 right before a possible storm might hit? 

It's also stuck at 222 on the Nws page which is where I assume TT and pivotal,etc feed from.

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Looking at GEFS, EPS, GEFS extended, and the latest Euro Weeklies, we will have a window of opportunity late the upcoming work week/ during the President's Day weekend.  After that it looks like we may have to wait to see if we connect with a Hail Mary in the second or third week of March.

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