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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3


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14 hours ago, Powerball said:

BTW, I'm sticking with my preliminary call as final. Widespread 10-15" with isolated higher amounts*.

*Besides the areas on the northern and southern edge getting screwed by slight shifts, there could also be a narrow area from far NE Indiana / far NW Ohio into the Detroit area and SW Ontario that gets slightly lower amounts as the better forcing for the 1st round sets up just NW of there and the better forcing for the 2nd round sets up just SE of there.

00z models really started to show what's bolded...

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Maples' rough estimate of changeover- Jefferson, MO and metro. 1-4am sounds right and earlier than Canadian guidance by 10-12 critical hours. I don't think I'll be able to sleep monitoring this haha:

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

A high impact winter storm is imminent with a broad area of
precipitation stretching from central Illinois southwestward
through a large portion Missouri. Rain transitioned to all snow at
KUIN around 02z this evening with the transition affecting KCOU
between 03z and 04z. Following shortly behind will be KJEF around
the release of this update. Metro terminals will likely follow
between 07z and 10z.

 

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8 minutes ago, Dalfy said:

Maples' rough estimate of changeover- Jefferson, MO and metro. 1-4am sounds right and earlier than Canadian guidance by 10-12 critical hours. I don't think I'll be able to sleep monitoring this haha:

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

A high impact winter storm is imminent with a broad area of
precipitation stretching from central Illinois southwestward
through a large portion Missouri. Rain transitioned to all snow at
KUIN around 02z this evening with the transition affecting KCOU
between 03z and 04z. Following shortly behind will be KJEF around
the release of this update. Metro terminals will likely follow
between 07z and 10z.

 

Hey Joe, your boy Maples! Joe is his biggest fan.

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Changeover taking a little longer to happen than most models indicated around here.

Don't take my word for it but I think it'll be in the next 2-3 hours max. Current wetbulb temps; check the time trend on spc:

image.png.3dfaf96efac08aaf01f7a921c958b073.png

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8 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

maybe due to open lake water?  points E and SE are turning faster than the timeline LOT posted.

It may have already been snowing when I made that other post.  I hadn't looked outside for about 15 mins prior to that.

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Good start for LOT

  ..REMARKS..  
  
1200 AM     SNOW             NWS CHICAGO-ROMEOVILLE  41.60N 88.08W  
02/02/2022  M1.4 INCH        WILL               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS   
  
            ACCUMULATION BEGAN AROUND 1030PM.   
  
1200 AM     SNOW             OHARE AIRPORT           41.98N 87.90W  
02/02/2022  M0.2 INCH        COOK               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS   
  

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9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Good start for LOT

  ..REMARKS..  
  
1200 AM     SNOW             NWS CHICAGO-ROMEOVILLE  41.60N 88.08W  
02/02/2022  M1.4 INCH        WILL               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS   
  
            ACCUMULATION BEGAN AROUND 1030PM.   
  
1200 AM     SNOW             OHARE AIRPORT           41.98N 87.90W  
02/02/2022  M0.2 INCH        COOK               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS   
  

Noticed something interesting in Chi metro.  Go west to DPA and they currently aren't reporting precip despite radar being lit up like a Christmas tree.  Currently 30/20 at DPA.

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00Z Euro keeps getting drier.  Its not a lack of overlapping.  Im wondering where these 2-3 in Pwats that forecasters were worried about a couple days ago are.  There was strong wording about potential flooding to our south.  I know its a bit early but meso is barely showing 1 in coming in from the gulf.  The upslope moisture occurring seems to be from tapping into the Pac jet, 700mb quite saturated.  I get a weaker surface reflection in part 2  but complete fizzle?  Im probably wrong but something fishy seems to be going on lol.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Noticed something interesting in Chi metro.  Go west to DPA and they currently aren't reporting precip despite radar being lit up like a Christmas tree.  Currently 30/20 at DPA.

Barely any returns over DPA area right now. Very sharp cutoff between there and ORD right now.

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Noticed something interesting in Chi metro.  Go west to DPA and they currently aren't reporting precip despite radar being lit up like a Christmas tree.  Currently 30/20 at DPA.
Looks like the banding push extending back to far southeast IA is and should fill in places currently just northwest of the heavier band over the metro. Tilt 2 on KLOT almost completely filled in.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Barely any returns over DPA area right now. Very sharp cutoff between there and ORD right now.

Guess I gotta look at the radar again or confirm exactly where DPA is.  It looked like there were >20 dbz returns there about 10 minutes ago.

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30 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

When is radar supposed to fill in further east?

DTX radar is down.....we're going to be flying blind for this storm. It sucks they did maintenance now and not during the summer.

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