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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

@OceanStWx


Might be too early to ask, so I can check again in 24 hours, but what's the rough window of time you expect PWM to flip from liquid to frozen?  

NAM to GFS is probably the goalposts right now. GFS 06z Fri, NAM 10z Fri. GFS seems a little too cool aloft overall, there always tends to be a sneaky warmer layer in there more akin to the NAM.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NAM to GFS is probably the goalposts right now. GFS 06z Fri, NAM 10z Fri. GFS seems a little too cool aloft overall, there always tends to be a sneaky warmer layer in there more akin to the NAM.

Nam looked to be a problem @H85 until roughly 12z or so friday

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For sure. And a few weeks ago the slight coating of ice in the morning caused all of wct roads to be impassable, accidents everywhere. 

right. treated roads should be fine, but untreated ones, watch out.

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

starts off a tad warmer then 12z but ends up colder in some place

Yeah, I'm definitely thinking there will be some amount of wintry precip all the way down to the shore. It's just that it's definitely gonna rain first, when it does change over it will probably go from fz to pellets fairly quickly, and snow is probably going to be minimal due to completely torched mids (850).

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's absolutely stunning outside right now. Deep blues reflecting off a deep white landscape. Take it day by day. Snow will melt soon but today is a winner. Scraped all the ice off the walks and driveway. The big meltdown has commenced. 50⁰!

Wow 50? 46 for a high here, the colder guidance was way off with that. Gfs was 40, euro spot on.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, I'm definitely thinking there will be some amount of wintry precip all the way down to the shore. It's just that it's definitely gonna rain first, when it does change over it will probably go from fz to pellets fairly quickly, and snow is probably going to be minimal due to completely torched mids (850).

freezing to the coast by hr46

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Colder for freezing rain at end. Warmer for the Pac-Man eating pack. 

I'm not an expert at all at figuring out sleet vs freezing rain...but this is a pretty deep cold layer, no? ptype algo is showing FZRA but I'm guessing it's an IP/FZ mix.

hrrr_2022020218_047_41.82--72.33.png

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