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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022


TalcottWx
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I think you can double expectations west of the river, this looks to me like it could go off the charts. That GFS evolution as I mentioned in the other thread (and NWS seems to have picked up same idea) is very explosive, and in fact I think the low is going to deepen below 970 mbs. It appears to be heading across the Cape and into western Gulf of Maine. There is already considerably more snow in the lower Hudson valley as per NYC forum reports, and I think western MA could easily see 12" and possibly 15-18" amounts. Even Albany NY could see 6" or more. The snow shield will be back to Utica to Plattsburgh at this rate. 

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20 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:
5 AM update...

*** Powerful multi facet winter storm w/near record snow, blizzard
conditions, near hurricane force wind gusts & coastal flooding ***

Highlights...

* Near record snowfall with a widespread 1 to 2 ft snowfall in
  eastern MA & RI, along with blizzard conditions. Localized amounts
  up to 3 ft possible in this region

* Snowfall rates could reach 2 to 4 inches per hour at times with
  possibility of thundersnow across eastern MA and RI. This will
  make travel very dangerous to nearly impossible

* Near hurricane force wind gusts are possible along the eastern MA
  coast, possibly resulting in power outages

Overview...

Explosive cyclogenesis underway with surface low down to about 989
mb at 09z east of the DE coast. Mid/upper level trough amplification
evident on satellite, with negative tilt and cooling cloud tops,
along with a classic baroclinic leaf signature. This will support
rapid deepening today and into this evening, with 00z guidance
indicating a sub 970 mb low just off the eastern MA coast at 00z
Sunday! This will be about a 35 mb pressure drop in 24 hrs, from 00z
Sat to 00z Sun! Hence, meeting and surpassing bomb cyclone criteria.

Details...

Near record snowfall/extreme snowfall rates...

00z models have trended slightly farther west with qpf and slightly
heavier as well. Given storm intensity and rapid amplification along
with mid level low track over or just east of the eastern MA coast,
this trend seems reasonable. Very strong jet dynamics which includes
a dual upper level jet streak, combined with a moist/cold NE
conveyor belt up to 80 kt off the Atlantic into SNE, will provide a
firehose of abundant moisture, supporting a period of very heavy
snowfall from approximately 9 am to 4 pm. In addition, as dry slot
approaches eastern MA and RI this afternoon, model soundings
indicate a potential moist absolute unstable layer (MAUL) in this
area. This seems reasonable as approaching dry slot will help
steepen mid level lapse rates. All of the attributes listed above
support intense snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour at times, along with
thundersnow. Also, model/BUFKIT time sections indicate the bulk of
the lift is occurring in the snow growth region later this morning
and afternoon. This will yield SLR of 15-20 to 1. Therefore, an
upward trend in qpf, a shift slightly farther west and heavy snow
bands with high SLR, have resulted in slightly higher snow totals
from previous forecast, and slightly shifted west. Heaviest snow
(near record snow possible) will occur across RI into the Worcester
Hills, with 18-24" likely. In eastern MA, 24-30" is likely. These
higher totals in RI and the Worcester Hills will hinge on mesoscale
banding pivoting westward from eastern MA into RI & the Worcester
Hills.

These snow totals will be record or near record in many locations.
In addition, strong NE winds will result in snow drifts up to 4 ft
and possibly higher. Considerable blow and drifting along with near
zero vsby at times, will result in very dangerous to impossible
travel conditions late this morning and afternoon. In addition, with
temps falling through the teens and WCI at or below zero, this will
be a very dangerous situation for anyone becoming stranded on the
roads. Hence, don`t venture out if at all possible because it could
become a life-threatening situation.

Snow totals will decrease westward across CT (especially CT River
Valley westward) and west of the Worcester Hills in MA. Our snow
totals in northwest MA may have to be adjusted downward, as some
concern very cold/dry air advecting into that region (KAQW dew pt
currently 2F) may overwhelm the boundary layer, resulting in less
snowfall. Something we will be monitoring.

PTYPE and Snow Load...

Well defined coastal front already established, with north wind at
KBOS with a temp of 27F. Meanwhile, KGHG northeast wind and 34F. As
strong pressure falls approach from the south, this coastal front
will become more pronounced and begin to bleed southward. These
pressure falls will also cause rain early this morning across the
outer Cape and Nantucket, to flip over to snow between 7 am and 10
pm, as winds shift to the NNE and draws colder air southward. The
concern here is that there could be many hours of wet snow here,
increasing the weight of tree branches and limbs. This combined with
NE winds gusting as high as 65-75 mph from about 9 am to 4 pm, will
increase the risk of tree damage and power outages across Nantucket,
Cape Cod and possibly coastal Plymouth county. This delay in
changeover from rain to snow, will reduce snow totals to 12" to 18"
across the outer Cape and Nantucket.

Strong to Damaging winds...

As mentioned above, anomalous low level NE jet combined with steep
low level lapse rates, NNE winds 30-40 mph with gusts up to 65-75
across Cape Cod and the Islands, including Cape Ann, will increase
the risk of tree damage and power outages. The greatest risk could
be across Cape Cod, the islands and coastal Plymouth county, as
heavy wet snow combines with these strong/damaging winds. In
addition, these very strong winds combined with snowfall rates of 2-
4" per hour at times, will yield blizzard conditions across RI and
eastern MA, with vsbys near zero at times. Even after the snow
tapers off early this evening, there will continue to be
considerable blowing and drifting snow.

"In Eastern Mass, 24-30 is likely" !!!!!

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There's a very loud FOG horn that blows on occasion in Newport whenever the Viz drops below a half a mile. I've yet to hear this FOG horn during this event. Hopefully heavier bands will be onshore in the coming minutes. So far the snow is wetter than I had expected but the intensity is disappointing. 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Trying to get that band to weenie in Tolland. Snowing pretty well for Ginxy right now with a little NE drift below the beam. Looks like the band has really slowed down and is getting near stationary. Pounding for Scoot too. 
81E48B6B-8EEF-4D1D-982A-0970326CC433.gif

It’s snowing hard. You want to be downwind of where it sets up. The heaviest snow will be out in front of where it looks like on radar with the wind. We’ll just have to see how the day goes 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s snowing hard. You want to be downwind of where it sets up. The heaviest snow will be out in front of where it looks like on radar with the wind. We’ll just have to see how the day goes 

it’s not there yet. The drift will be a hair south of the band with a N wind. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s snowing hard. You want to be downwind of where it sets up. The heaviest snow will be out in front of where it looks like on radar with the wind. We’ll just have to see how the day goes 

Looks like Will's getting pounded there.  I hope that can get nudged NW about 10 miles.

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https://youtube.com/shorts/0CfG79f-sv4?feature=share  Expecting around 12-14 inches here in my area of Nova Scotia along with 60 +mph winds. Not the massive amounts you guys are expecting but still a good storm. Awesome snowgrowth here currently as you can see in the video. Might get in on some sting jet action tonight as the low pulls up into the Bay of fundy. Some models including the Euro show southwesterly gusts over hurricane force around midnight ! Hope you guys get absolutely crushed, you’ve been dreaming of a storm like this for a while now, enjoy !! 

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