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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

"Thou shall not bullshit the masses" ????

Good morning G S 1717. Wonderful quote. The top of the worlds mountains should benignly activate and announce to all the nations leaders that it has been installed as # 11. Stay well and cool. As always …..

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8 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning G S 1717. Wonderful quote. The top of the worlds mountains should benignly activate and announce to all the nations leaders that it has been installed as # 11. Stay well and cool. As always …..

rclab, good morning.....as a thank you I am sending you an autographed stone tablet with the 11th commandment!!..sure to be a keepsake that one day will bring a hefty price on ebay..

See the source image

 

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CSU and Noaa are  nice  but  the  JB-o-meter has  just  issued a  "Fast and  Furious watch" I hope any of these  3 are right. 12Z GFS says  not so fast. I think CSU is flailing  just a  bit. All of a sudden a  cool subtropics is  bad? Ive read the  super warm subtropics  of  years  past  were  bad  for  the  MDR. Storms best start forming  pretty  fast  to get to 15 more.

 

 

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 I don't normally put much, if any, weight on what JB ever says about the tropics. I don't follow him as much as in the past although ldub is making sure we do lol. Years ago, I took what he said more seriously. But I've since learned he's often (though not always) a broken record who not only tends to be a weenie wishcaster, he also mainly wants more business. And besides, his biggest emphasis is for the Mid Atlantic and NE states. So, for what potentially affects me personally, he doesn't care as much.

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 Whereas today's significant downward CO State ACE change makes perfect sense, I think 150 ACE is likely still too high. The highest 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral season ACE of the 8 analogs was at 135 with 2000's in 2nd with 119. With it still only at 3 and with little chance of anything the next 7 days (through 8/10), I'm putting the likely high end near 135 with 120 my best guess. But I'd keep in mind that:

1. The models sometimes have badly missed the flip of the switch from quiet to active. Whereas they may be right, don't be fooled into thinking they're anywhere close to being all knowing. We could always be just days from a flip of the switch.

2. Even a 120 ACE would still mean an active 8/11+.
1985, another 3rd year cold ENSO analog, and one of the most active ever for the US with 7 H landfalls (6 during 8/15+) had an ACE of only 88 and # of NS/H/MH only near the longterm average of 11/7/3!! The 7 US hits in 1985 was one more than the devastating and hyperactive seasons of 1893 (including PR), which had an ACE of 231; 2004, which had an ACE of 227; and 2005, which had an ACE of 250!

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49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don't normally put much, if any, weight on what JB ever says about the tropics. I don't follow him as much as in the past although ldub is making sure we do lol. Years ago, I took what he said more seriously. But I've since learned he's often (though not always) a broken record who not only tends to be a weenie wishcaster, he also mainly wants more business. And besides, his biggest emphasis is for the Mid Atlantic and NE states. So, for what potentially affects me personally, he doesn't care as much.

His father went to Texas A&M, JB, besides the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, sort of kind of pays attention to SE Texas.  GEFS dead, empirical and BOM, EC and empirical MJO forecasts for August 21 to August 24 as beginning of favorable Atlantic phase, ensembles may start showing 2 week activity sometime this weekend.

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I think the downward revisions by these major seasonal forecast outlets is telling, and I will also say that we have lowered the bar immensely from coming into the 2022 season. The dire predictions of a hyperactive season cannot be forgotten. Now with the start date looking pushed back past mid August, it looks almost impossible to get a season with that many storms. Sure, it likely will end up at least average to above average, but forecasting a hyperactive season and getting an average season is a major bust imo from some of the leading seasonal forecasters.

That being said, hurricane season is not dead. August can and likely will turn on. September is and always will be the peak month. And we all know it only takes one storm to hit the right area and it’s a memorable season. But numbers wise, 18 storms seems like a stretch at this point given where we’re at and the continued hostile look for the next 10 days. GaWx’s discussion above is spot on, imo

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I think the downward revisions by these major seasonal forecast outlets is telling, and I will also say that we have lowered the bar immensely from coming into the 2022 season. The dire predictions of a hyperactive season cannot be forgotten. Now with the start date looking pushed back past mid August, it looks almost impossible to get a season with that many storms. Sure, it likely will end up at least average to above average, but forecasting a hyperactive season and getting an average season is a major bust imo from some of the leading seasonal forecasters.
That being said, hurricane season is not dead. August can and likely will turn on. September is and always will be the peak month. And we all know it only takes one storm to hit the right area and it’s a memorable season. But numbers wise, 18 storms seems like a stretch at this point given where we’re at and the continued hostile look for the next 10 days. GaWx’s discussion above is spot on, imo
A difference of 20 ACE is nothing even if technically it drops below the loose definition of a hyperactive season. CSU only lowered their totals to 18 and still calls for 4 major hurricanes. I do think forecasting a hyperactive year is a bit of a gamble. Those years seem to have some atmospheric "luck" where everyhing just falls into place near to the ASO stretch beyond even what long range modeling can precursor. But there was scientific reasoning based on long range indicators back in May-June that suggested a hyperactive season was possible. We've also been in an above-active stretch for the ASOs of 2017-present. But who knows, we've had some crazy years not get going until the last week of August when environmental conditions improved rapidly. 2004 and 2017 come to mind, not that I am suggesting anything like those. An active ASO seems reasonable still and I like the updated CSU and NOAA forecasts here.
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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just the usual reminder that even in dead seasons like 1983 and 1992, major hurricanes can still hit population centers.  'A' storms that formed in August.  1992 a Cat 5 just South of MIA and a Cat 3 near KPTN.

 Absolutely. it is kind of scary that even in an otherwise weak season, one storm can devastate one's area. I kind of think of 1965 that way due to Betsy mainly on New Orleans. Perhaps 1991's Bob to a lesser extent. I guess 1938 wouldn't qualify because of H #3 hitting LA in addition to the NE monster.

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1999 still a good analog per CSU. I also remember tracking in the year 2000, and we had a very busy period with Hurricane Isaac (Cat 4 out to sea), Hurricane Joyce (poised to be a major Caribbean/GOM storm but fizzled near the islands) and Hurricane Keith (Devastating Cat 4 near Belize), and those were all around September 28-October 3rd.

 

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12 hours ago, ldub23 said:

All of a sudden a  cool subtropics is  bad? Ive read the  super warm subtropics  of  years  past  were  bad  for  the  MDR.

Eastern subtropics exhibits a positive correlation, in the domain of the AMO horseshoe. Western and central subtropics exhibits a far weaker correlation, so you can't group the entire subtropics as one whole like this.

WCNjPWr.thumb.png.256b290c3015ee59191d9d4518cbbce9.png

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16 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just the usual reminder that even in dead seasons like 1983 and 1992, major hurricanes can still hit population centers.  'A' storms that formed in August.  1992 a Cat 5 just South of MIA and a Cat 3 near KPTN.

I was in FL for Andrew. Took some growing up to realize that was late for an "A" storm. Lots of lessons learned from that storm, one of them for me was putting tape on the windows doesn't do anything and is a b**** to remove in the post-storm heat and humidity. Family still throws their plastic patio furniture in the pool though, fun memories of sitting in underwater chairs.

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Did  someone say the super duper awesome fantastic  conditions  were  coming? East  Pac says this  is a super el nino.

 

This  is horrific  for MDR development. A cat 5 cut  off  low wandering around the  middle  of the Atlantic. Tropics  killer

 

gfs.gif

TICK, TICK, TICK. CSU should  have went  6/3/1 for the rest  of the season and we  might  not  make that  with a  very  real probability The Fast and Furious watch will be  cancelled, no wheel, no euro super ridge, and the east  pac popping  canes  like bees to honey.

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Funny thing about this forum. I can always tell what the latest turn of events is with regard to the Atlantic Hurricane Season by who has the last post

 

If the last post is from IDUB then the latest thinking is bearish.

If the last post is from Cptcatz thanthe latest thinking is bullish 

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Did  someone say the super duper awesome fantastic  conditions  were  coming?

 I don't know. Did someone? When did this "someone" actually say this and when is this "super duper" setup supposed to occur? This overdramatization seems to me to be a straw man you're creating to divert attention from the normal discussion.

 You've been the one who keeps mentioning JB and has posted about his 1954 stuff. Has anyone else here done that?

 Back to reality: I still think there's a decent shot (50% chance) at a TC forming in the MDR within the next 10 days. If so, look for it to be a decent ACE producer. If that doesn't form, look for one quite possibly by 8/20. I'd be quite surprised if we don't get the next TC to form by then.

 I'm still going with 3-4 TCs this month....nothing out of the ordinary. Not quiet and not overly active though all it takes is one for a potential disaster. That would get us to 6-7 NS by August 31. Still going 120 ACE for the full season meaning a pretty active rest of season.

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