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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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Hell yeah so far with 0z! We live for another day... or at least another model cycle. The RGEM, NAM, and ICON confirm the threat is still legit. A convincing shift west from the GFS would confirm that we're still in the game for significant snow.

But will we bounce back east at 6z like a wobbling hurricane eye?

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We have to proceed with extreme caution until the GFS gets on board. It remains a huge caution flag. The background tug will want to pull this east, so that is the default here.

I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that the NAM, RGEM, ICON, and JMA threw us a bone this cycle. I'm very wary that this might have been a brief head fake west.

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Just now, Jt17 said:

Bad run - if CMC looks like rgem, the Goofus will be on its own. 

Given how perilous the setup is, the progressive bias of the GFS will lead to incredible run to run changes. 

It's really incredible how slight changes affect the entire outcome. The model volatility must be off the charts this close to the potential storm. 

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