Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[skierinvermont]

2 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

The dominoes have started falling. Forecasts being upgraded from 8-12 to 12-18, still somewhat lower than NWS.

 

 

It's odd, none of the forecast maps I've seen show the snow hole in SE CT and SW RI that almost all the computer runs show. With N winds downsloping and climo it seems likely

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

me thinks it is

same. confluence at least looks not as pronounced as the NAM and both streams look good too ...so far

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

same. confluence at least looks not as pronounced as the NAM and both streams look good too ...so far

downstream heights are 

[bristolri_wx]

Hope we beefed up the American Weather server capacity for tonight.  It's gonna be busy in here lol.

[skierinvermont]

Trough is 50+ miles SW at 21 hours

[JC-CT]

i always get upstream and downstream wrong. which is dumb

[ineedsnow]

out to 30 GFS looks better 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Left em in the dust with no bus to go back and pick them up 

That's exactly what it will be out west too...dust. 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Too bad it's the 12knam. 

Yeah. It's really too bad the Euro isn't similar. Shucks.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

same. confluence at least looks not as pronounced as the NAM and both streams look good too ...so far

Bump those 500 heights up ahead of it too. That doesn't hurt.

[skierinvermont]

cave

[JC-CT]

Waaaay west

[JC-CT]

too bad it will probably still soil itself

[ineedsnow]

yup gfs caving!

[JC-CT]

this elongated low thing is probably real

[ineedsnow]

huge changes knew it was coming

[RI Rob]

She's west.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Yeah. It's really too bad the Euro isn't similar. Shucks.

It's too bad it is the far left goal post where it never holds that far left. If it keeps ticking left next 48hrs and everything else goes left, then I'll owe you and Wiz beer. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

5 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

It's odd, none of the forecast maps I've seen show the snow hole in SE CT and SW RI that almost all the computer runs show. With N winds downsloping and climo it seems likely

The H7 low is well offshore from us, so there's no mid-level dryslotting

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

It's odd, none of the forecast maps I've seen show the snow hole in SE CT and SW RI that almost all the computer runs show. With N winds downsloping and climo it seems likely

No one is ever arsed to show it in detail. People who live around the bay can apply the normal modifier. So many banding signatures show what always happens, better stuff northeast and better stuff west. In a very big storm, it gets enough goods around anyway.

Im very dubious on a foot or more here, but that's the official forecast. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

this elongated low thing is probably real

I'd rather wait and see.

[weathafella]

Gfs caving.

[JC-CT]

should give some forecasters a tiny sigh of relief anyways

[WeatherWilly]

[bristolri_wx]

GFS doesn't seem that far west or improved on the Pivotal surface maps.  I'm not looking at the other levels though... maybe I'm missing something...

[JC-CT]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

GFS doesn't seem that far west or improved on the Pivotal surface maps.  I'm not looking at the other levels though... maybe I'm missing something...

mostly, yeah...the other levels. but the elongation of the surface low kind of negates some of the benefit

[cut]

I wasn't going to drink tonight but ... I feel like the storm is imminent - not still 36 or more hours away!!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JC-CT said:

should give some forecasters a tiny sigh of relief anyways

Only if they were factoring it in. Unfortunately it seems quite a few were 

[UnitedWx]

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Icon bumped west with its qpf output

Posting only to show the west trends i hope  Hey...maybe the FUweather 12 to 18 they've had as my forecast since noon yesterday will have a chance of actually coming true.  Wouldn't that be dumb luck 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Definitely a more weenie h5 look, agree.