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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

When I see posts by Forky then I know that its disappearing, since he only shows up because he enjoys snow lovers to be miserable. 

Actually he’s been on board pumping big snows so he thinks it’s a major system. Let’s see if he ends up right. 

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Spaizzo

Spaizzo

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Today's 12z runs should steer us in a direction which will be geared towards the outcome. Even if we continue to see some divergence I think we'll be able to piece together which way to hedge. 

I feel like someone has said this ever model run since Tuesday night :blink:

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Apologies if this has already been posted...but 06z Canuck?

GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

Theres something I've noticed about the cmc suite that I've never heard anyone talk about...the ggem is almost always (maybe always?) a virtual exact replica of the end of the rgem at 48 hours...I wonder if the initialization of the ggem somehow uses the rgem.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup started at 18z yesterday . Another nice run for the forum 

For fcks sake dude, you just dont give up. It moved back west at 0z. This 6z run seems to mostly have held serve but it did cut back on the western periphery. I'm not sure I care much either way, it's the ggem

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do think we need to watch those east ticks, but I also have seen things more often than not, go the other way with these coming from the south. I think the amounts so far from sources like NWS look good.

Honestly outside of the GFS this looks like a pretty good snowstorm for the area. 

Just disappointed the EURO looks from before with the stall is not looking good right now. 

Wanted historic.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

I've been learning option trading this year. It's amazingly similar in some ways. 

When you buy try and evaluate a stock it feels like you are forecasting for a snowstorm to hit every Friday (weekly option expiration). The stock direction is similar to snowfall amounts. Your job to look at technical analysis and sentiment/sort of like picking apart model bias. 

Predict what is coming based off experience. That's where the similarities end. Pro: you get a new chance to jackpot every week in markets con: there is real money on the line not snowfall. Doesn't destroy your family when you lose big. 

Model windshield wipers = bear/bull traps if you are not careful. 

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Spaizzo said:

I feel like someone has said this ever model run since Tuesday night :blink:

Yeah it's been said but truth of the matter is we've really been in the time period where differences are going to occur. It's not highly common to see model-to-model consistency or even run-to-run consistency 4-5 days or sometimes even as little as 3 days out. I think some are just a bit overanxious. 

If one just looks at SLP/QPF alone these differences and inconsistencies seem much worse than they really are. As stated several times, very subtle differences between the key features in the mid-levels will have big implications at the surface. The changes needed to get a major storm for the majority of the region are very small. In fact, there is probably a higher chance the majority see a major storm then the majority not seeing a major storm. 

The biggest takeaways (even with yesterday's runs) is each subsequent and model has had improvements with the key features...whether or not that translated down to the surface is not very important at the time range (but will get more important today). 

It's all good and fun b/c it's discussion but we all have the tendency to focus too much on certain details in time frames we really shouldn't be. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I do think we need to watch those east ticks, but I also have seen things more often than not, go the other way with these coming from the south. I think the amounts so far from sources like NWS look good.

SE zones have been consistent, Its the folks west that have the least room out in the fringes, That's always the case though in most storms, Its been a slow uptick up here but I'm also banking on a curl west with this so that's not certain, Don't like the confluence north of here that has showed up recently either, We continue to watch.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I've been learning option trading this year. It's amazingly similar in some ways. 

When you buy try and evaluate a stock it feels like you are forecasting for a snowstorm to hit every Friday (weekly option expiration). The stock direction is similar to snowfall amounts. Your job to look at technical analysis and sentiment/sort of like picking apart model bias. 

Predict what is coming based off experience. That's where the similarities end. Pro: you get a new chance to jackpot every week in markets con: there is real money on the line not snowfall. Doesn't destroy your family when you lose big. 

I've been playing prediction markets for the last year or so. It's amazing how many people just simply cannot get themselves to think in probabilistic terms.

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