Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Patrick-02540 said:

It is like a beautiful girlfriend, who you are then forced to marry.  

My first impression of you based on this post and your profile pic is that many of your metaphors involve women

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That RI hole has been on a few runs...imagine of Cory came home and that happened

Has R.I had a jackpot in last 20 years ?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That RI hole has been on a few runs...imagine of Cory came home and that happened

might be  from a death band to the west?

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think Euro will look similar 

I think it will as well, Its really led the charge on this, Right now GFS is an outlier.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

I watch them all. It's something I've been doing since the 70's

I do too but usually go with Harvey.

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

I think it will as well, Its really led the charge on this, Right now GFS is an outlier.

It has to break at 06z, right? There is no way it has this figured out. But damn it has been persistent.

[ineedsnow]

If the Euro holds watches will be expanded west

[IowaStorm05]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Has R.I had a jackpot in last 20 years ?

I think so. 2003, 2005…

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It has to break at 06z, right? There is no way it has this figured out. But damn it has been persistent.

Yeah, Its not been perfect, But its held steady for the most part and was on its own.

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Has R.I had a jackpot in last 20 years ?

78

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

78

My Polish math still tells me 78 is not within the last 20yrs.

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

might be  from a death band to the west?

One nice thing about that screw hole showing up now - it means it will probably end up somewhere else.  I've noticed over they years that most of the RI screw holes aren't forecasted on the models, they usually show up unexpectedly on radar when some good banding is going on elsewhere.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I think Euro will tickle west but we won’t find it over the elbow 02cents . Ukie position is wild 

[Typhoon Tip]

I’ve bitched about this before but situation like this really underscores my complaint… Why did they discontinue the model diagnostic division- … now would be a good time to see if there were data ingest/ initialization issues. 

 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My Polish math still tells me 78 is not within the last 20yrs.

That's the last time I remember them getting jacked

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think Euro will tickle west but we won’t find it over the elbow 02cents . Ukie position is wild 

That was the GGEM position too.

[Typhoon Tip]

Where was the UKM position ?

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

One nice thing about that screw hole showing up now - it means it will probably end up somewhere else.  I've noticed over they years that most of the RI screw holes aren't forecasted on the models, they usually show up unexpectedly on radar when some good banding is going on elsewhere.

How's that for a screw hole?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ve bitched about this before but situation like this really underscores my complaint… Why did they discontinue the model diagnostic division- … now would be a good time to see if there were data ingest/ initialization issues. 

 

Good question, I use to go read the model diagnostic discussion on the WPC website to see if there were any ini errors.

[WeatherWilly]

That's not a screw hole. That's a canyon. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Where was the UKM position ?

Just east of CQX

[MuddyWx]

Is the gfs just insanely outclassed in handling that s stream wave and the phasing?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

That's the last time I remember them getting jacked

RI used up 50 years of jackpot karma in the ‘78 storm…gotta wait until 2028 for them. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That was the GGEM position too.

I mean those models are both a little cray , it’s def a very nice move , I just don’t think euro moves near that much 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think it will as well, Its really led the charge on this, Right now GFS is an outlier.

The funny part, it was just barely 6 hrs ago, and the bridge jumpers were all saying the Euro was the outlier.  

[JC-CT]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The funny part, it was just barely 6 hrs ago, and the bridge jumpers were all saying the Euro was the outlier.  

It was

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean those models are both a little cray , it’s def a very nice move , I just don’t think euro moves near that much 

It was 30 or so miles east of there at 18z though,

[OrangeCTWX]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

Is the gfs just insanely outclassed in handling that s stream wave and the phasing?

It’s handling of the energy in the dakotas at just 24 hrs is much different than other models.

[MegaMike]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ve bitched about this before but situation like this really underscores my complaint… Why did they discontinue the model diagnostic division- … now would be a good time to see if there were data ingest/ initialization issues. 

 

Edit - Misread that, but still informative  

The verification page is here: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/

I recently found it while looking for model specifications. It looks like it's still "under construction."

They have evaluations (surface and aloft) for the GFS, GEFS, SREF, and other climate modeling systems.

[bristolri_wx]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ve bitched about this before but situation like this really underscores my complaint… Why did they discontinue the model diagnostic division- … now would be a good time to see if there were data ingest/ initialization issues. 

 

In all seriousness, if the GFS ends up being out to lunch on this one, someone at NCEP/WPC needs to take a look at why and get this solved.  While US East Coast cyclones might not be the focus of the CMC, Euro, UK because of their own missions and priorities, the US models should have this as one of their strengths, not weaknesses.  1/3 of the US population lives on the East Coast.  It should be a priority to get the accuracy up on these scenarios.  The GFS and NAM going back and forth is embarrassing inside the 5 day window.