Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Vort separation could become an issue. I think that's what's going on this run.

The shortwave behind it is very much in play.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Later capture I it hooks north in GOM

Didn't one of the mets earlier say that he thought capture would be sooner further south than what was showing then?  So now the GFS captures later.  Makes no sense.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

A 10:1 38" just off the coast lol on the clowns.

would be white rain, they don't accumulate very efficiently out there

[PhineasC]

People were spiking footballs too early. 

[dendrite]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Didn't one of the mets earlier say that he thought capture would be sooner further south than what was showing then?  So now the GFS captures later.  Makes no sense.

It’s a different look in the upper levels. Apples to oranges

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

People were spiking footballs too early. 

oh nos

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

would be white rain, they don't accumulate very efficiently out there

More in jest, But how many calls would the authorities have to go to on the tobin if that verified?

[WeatherX]

Gotta take em' down

[PhineasC]

Looks more like the lame runs from a couple days ago. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

More in jest, But how many calls would the authorities have to go to on the tobin if that verified?

it's not going to happen that way, because Scooter LOL'd at people talking about a wide right miss this morning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Didn't one of the mets earlier say that he thought capture would be sooner further south than what was showing then?  So now the GFS captures later.  Makes no sense.

Yes, and I responded that they usually end up later.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dollars to weenies GEFS shift west again 

Yeah this smells like an eastern envelope solution.

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, Southshorewx said:

"Been here done this. Love the trends."  Should be an americanwx tshirt. 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Didn't one of the mets earlier say that he thought capture would be sooner further south than what was showing then?  So now the GFS captures later.  Makes no sense.

Most Mets know much more than hobbyists 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s a different look in the upper levels. Apples to oranges

I mean it’s not worth jumping off the Tobin over one 18z gfs run, but it’s leaving most of the southern s/w behind

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s a different look in the upper levels. Apples to oranges

no takesy backsies

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

fine...yourself?

Just fine thanks. GL out there. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I mean it’s not worth jumping off the Tobin over one 18z gfs run, but it’s leaving most of the southern s/w behind

Need more vort separation.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most Mets know much more than hobbyists 

Duh

[hooralph]

I'm new here: do you always count on the 18z runs to show good continuity 5 days out? Or do they sometimes spit out odd solutions? Just asking questions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most Mets know much more than hobbyists 

Agree.

If this is the eastern goal post, I can live with near a foot...sucks for you, though.

[JC-CT]

Just now, hooralph said:

I'm new here: do you always count on the 18z runs to show good continuity 5 days out? Or do they sometimes spit out odd solutions? Just asking questions.

we refer to them as happy hour runs, but to answer your question, we treat them like any other run

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

If this is the eastern goal post, I can live with near a foot.

GEFS will shift west and Anthony will arrest someone 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, hooralph said:

I'm new here: do you always count on the 18z runs to show good continuity 5 days out? Or do they sometimes spit out odd solutions? Just asking questions.

I was expecting significant consistency. I’m in shambles over that solution, to be honest.

[MJO812]

Gefs east

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GEFS will shift west and Anthony will arrest someone 

It's also leaving back energy

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JC-CT said:

we refer to them as happy hour runs, but to answer your question, we treat them like any other run

I’d disagree there . They are never weighted like 12 and 00z

[NorEastermass128]

I’ll take it!  I’d rather the 18z GFS being E than over the elbow. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

it's not going to happen that way, because Scooter LOL'd at people talking about a wide right miss this morning.

As other Mets have said, we are not worried about that.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, hooralph said:

I'm new here: do you always count on the 18z runs to show good continuity 5 days out? Or do they sometimes spit out odd solutions? Just asking questions.

It’s the same thing as when you lived here. They’re whatever you want them to be.