Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[tunafish]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Tuna?

oh yeah let's go

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The snow amount has a limit with this. This is moving steadily, so unless you're in the deformation area W and NW of H7.....I don't see 2'. Looks like a 12-18" limit.

Unless its the 1993 superstorm, you never get 2' se of H7. It's not a speed of movement limitation. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Interior NE MA is probably in a good as spot as any right now. Far enough east to get the Ukie-Esque solutions but far enough west to still do pretty well in the hugger solutions. 

Yeah I’m not saying he’s in a bad spot, I just don’t get the confidence of good spot vs bad spot over a relatively small area at 100+ hour lead time.

not sure how anyone can have real confidence in that 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The snow amount has a limit with this. This is moving steadily, so unless you're in the deformation area W and NW of H7.....I don't see 2'. Looks like a 12-18" limit.

The H7 low moved from VT on the 6z GFS to NH on the 12z.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I think most being somewhat in the game is all we can ask on Monday before a Saturday Sunday storm 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I guess my point was being concerned with only getting a foot of snow and meso-scale maxes/mins seems premature given how far the models have changed in the last 12 hours alone.

I would sign on a dotted line right now for a foot of snow regardless of what people east or west get, ha.  Be interesting to see how many people would sign for that right now.

i'd prefer for h5 to close off a little sooner than these latest gfs runs

[ROOSTA]

Perfect time for a radio show.
Does the forum still do them?
They were fun and informative. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The snow amount has a limit with this. This is moving steadily, so unless you're in the deformation area W and NW of H7.....I don't see 2'. Looks like a 12-18" limit.

There will absolutely be 2 foot amounts with this 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I guess my point was being concerned with only getting a foot of snow and meso-scale maxes/mins seems premature given how far the models have changed in the last 12 hours alone.

I would sign on a dotted line right now for a foot of snow regardless of what people east or west get, ha.  Be interesting to see how many people would sign for that right now.

Of course its premature. I'm not making a forecast...its a damn chat forum.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think most being somewhat in the game is all we can ask on Monday before a Saturday Sunday storm 

It’s Friday pm into Saturday evening . Out well before Sunday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah I’m not saying he’s in a bad spot, I just don’t get the confidence of good spot vs bad spot over a relatively small area at 100+ hour lead time.

not sure how anyone can have real confidence in that 

Fair enough. 

Just my opinion 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unless its the 1993 superstorm, you never get 2' se of H7. It's not a speed of movement limitation. 

lol, I heard JB is throwing out 1993 for this.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course its premature. I'm not making a forecast...its a damn chat forum.

For sure man, I do the same thing.  The worry up here is always east.  We chatting.

I totally get the feeling of averaging a good amount of snow but never truly jackpotting.  Just steady as she goes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

For sure man, I do the same thing.  The worry here is always east.  We chatting.

My spot is as good as any for a solid footer....but I don't think I will have the higher end totals.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, dryslot said:

lol, I heard JB is trowing out 1993 for this.

We have a building where I work that's abbreviated "JB", and I call it "JaBroney".

[JC-CT]

@weathafellameteocentre has the 12z ggem

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My spot is as good as any for a solid footer....but I don't think I will have the higher end totals.

I'm 100% with you that the jackpot is where ever mid-level banding is... regardless of how fast it's moving, if those current runs are anywhere close to right, there will be a NW deform fluff band.

The temperatures on the cold side of the storm are just about perfect for major snow growth.  When 850-700mb temps are like -10C to -20C out in the deform zone, look out for those 1.0" QPF but 20-24" of snow.

The trick is, does that defom band end up over BOS or the Cape in a far east solution, or is it over ALB or something.

[WeatherHappens]

I'll enjoy my rain and 35 degrees lol

[weatherwiz]

One little early concern is potential for a pretty high DGZ based on the thermals...but the gradient from the sfc well into the upper-levels of the atmosphere is insane...the degree of lift on the favored sides of the lows will be through the roof. Way too early to really get into these specifics but just a thought. At this stage, the thing I love most is the evolution of the ULJ through New England...if there were to be a book written right now, that should be the cover page. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I'm 100% with you that the jackpot is where ever mid-level banding is... regardless of how fast it's moving, if those current runs are anywhere close to right, there will be a NW deform fluff band.

The temperatures on the cold side of the storm are just about perfect for major snow growth.  When 850-700mb temps are like -10C to -20C out in the deform zone, look out for those 1.0" QPF but 22" of snow.

dendrite on the 12z gfs

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

We have a building where I work that's abbreviated "JB", and I call it "JaBroney".

more like JBaloney...

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s Friday pm into Saturday evening . Out well before Sunday 

The Friday PM stuff is almost like a PRE in the tropical system....it's not really directly associated with the coastal storm.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

dendrite on the 12z gfs

Yeah man look at those H7 temps and you can see it... it'd be just west of that sharp gradient IMO.  Once into that -10C to -12C at 700mb it's just ripping dendrites.

I think it would be in the CT River Valley in NNE to be honest, riding the VT/NH border.  Like Litchfield County CT up the Upper Valley VT/NH.  That'll be a fun map to watch, the 700mb thermal gradient.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

@weathafellameteocentre has the 12z ggem

Let’s just say from a ptyoe perspective it’s not pretty 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Top 2 analogs from CIPS for 12z GFS are March 3, 2009 and V-Day '07.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Friday PM stuff is almost like a PRE in the tropical system....it's not really directly associated with the coastal storm.

Yeah it’s like a long ribbon of snow way out in advance . But he was thinking this was Sunday deal . Long gone by then 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it’s like a long ribbon of snow way out in advance . But he was thinking this was Sunday deal . Long gone by then 

Actually, I’m many of the big ones we add inches in the PRE.

[grambo]

My plow truck PTSD just kicked in at the mention of V-Day '07. 

Wow!

 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, grambo said:

My plow truck PTSD just kicked in at the mention of V-Day '07. 

Wow!

 

I remember that storm just being miserable here.

We got accumulating snow, but then it snizzled and rained the whole afternoon.

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Actually, I’m many of the big ones we add inches in the PRE.

Feb '13 I had 8" of it before the main event, on the way to 32".