Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is like a white Long Island Express

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

0z Euro trough digs too little too late, results in a scraper

As much weight as another ensemble member this far out, especially given track record this season

It's not just any one piece of guidance...there is a general trend in the aggregate to have more of a kicker out west.

[wxsniss]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not just any one piece of guidance...there is a general trend in the aggregate to have more of a kicker out west.

Agree, but we've seen trends like this reverse dramatically in shorter lead time. A touch more phase, axis of ridging out west... all very much in flux on guidance and days before we get better clarity.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree, but we've seen trends like this reverse dramatically in shorter lead time. A touch more phase, axis of ridging out west... all very much in flux on guidance and days before we get better clarity.

Agree. But not what I wanted to see tonight.

[weathafella]

I’m keeping an open mind....but this years trends don’t give me a huge amount of confidence.

[Ginx snewx]

So about those antique cars....

[wxsniss]

Very much alive at 6-7 days out... and more west members than 12z

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Very much alive at 6-7 days out... and more west members than 12z

East of 12z not good

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Very much alive at 6-7 days out... and more west members than 12z

You put any more lipstick on that pig its gonna squeal

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like 2 or 3 members that would be a big deal here. Another maratimes storm, gag me.

Let's see what tomorrow brings...I give it until Tuesday. 

[wxsniss]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

East of 12z not good

Definitely makes no difference at this point, but 0z is not east of 12z:

Mean is nearly identical:

And more members west of the drawn line at 0z:

 

[The 4 Seasons]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"There's the demon"

We do have a rather big storm on our hands, it will rival the blizzard of 1978...even stronger. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, 00z EPS maybe a hair better.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, 00z EPS maybe a hair better.

OT but I really wish I was looking at models back when that storm was FX it must have really been something to see. I remember the nws, the weather Channel and local news couldn't hype it enough. I remember Paul kocin said it will possibly be the biggest storm in over 50 years possibly 100 (1888). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

OT but I really wish I was looking at models back when that storm was FX it must have really been something to see. I remember the nws, the weather Channel and local news couldn't hype it enough. I remember Paul kocin said it will possibly be the biggest storm in over 50 years possibly 100 (1888). 

I remember vividly....I didn't view models back then, but just read AFDs and watched TWC constantly. 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough

this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output

[Ginx snewx]

06 GFS is a scraper. This all reminds me of tracking a tropical storm out of the Bahamas.  They always have that lean to the right unless they hug the coast. Everything right now including ENS is too far off the coast but it's extremely close. We track but have flags up.

[apm]

But 06Z GFS op and ensembles continue the offshore trend 

 

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is a lot better than 00z... better alignment and amplification of the PNA ridge and it results in a much deeper trough

this will certainly result in a more favorable surface output

It's trying but not too great. 

[moneypitmike]

48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

06 GFS is a scraper. This all reminds me of tracking a tropical storm out of the Bahamas.  They always have that lean to the right unless they hug the coast. Everything right now including ENS is too far off the coast but it's extremely close. We track but have flags up.

Hopefully those reminders include how futile tracking  95% of those tropical systems is. 

[Hoth]

Eh, I'm not about OTS at this range. Just keep the strong signal for another day or two, then we can worry about track.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, apm said:

But 06Z GFS op and ensembles continue the offshore trend 

 

Gefs isn't bad at all

[MJO812]

I'm praying Tip brings good luck.  Should have created a thread on Wednesday.

[Damage In Tolland]

Very much a long shot 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very much a long shot 

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very much a long shot 

H5 will tell you the whole story by 96 hours

Flow is too fast for amplification

[snowman19]

People can talk shit about the Euro not being good anymore all they want, but when it consistently shows miss after miss that’s a huge red flag IMO 

[qg_omega]

She’s gone 

[moneypitmike]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs isn't bad at all

 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

H5 will tell you the whole story by 96 hours

Flow is too fast for amplification

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

It's not bad but trending worse